1. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 (Further) (Possible) ICP M&M Contribution to Integrated Assessment Maximilian Posch Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Jaap Slootweg Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) ICP Modelling & Mapping Bilthoven, Netherlands www.pbl.nl/cce

2. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Integrated Assessment (IA) under the LRTAP Convention - Generally carried out under TFIAM - Done with the GAINS model by CIAM … mostly minimizing costs for an accepted reduction target for an agreed set of environmental and human health indicators - Making use of (the linearized version of) the EMEP atmospheric chemistry and transport model(s) New (and ‘welcomed’ by WGSR and EB): - Ex-post analyses by the WGE-ICPs of (selected) scenarios (in collaboration with EMEP and CIAM)

3. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Scheme for CCE [ex-post] analyses (see SR2008): Modelling: SMB, Dynamic Modelling, … Empirical CLs, Dose-Response Functions, …

4. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Steps in analysis (with emphasis on ICP M&M) 1. Receive scenario from CIAM (in form of country emissions of S, NO x, NH 3, …) 2. Obtain deposition fields by … a) using the linearised EMEP model b) convincing EMEP to run the Unified Model for the given scenario 3. Analyse: a) compute various indicators b) compare with existing (reference) scenarios c) summarise and display results [in familiar and novel ways] 4. Report back to TFIAM/WGSR

5. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Data and models available - Official 2008 Critical Loads data base (modelled & empirical; but also earlier versions) - European Background CL data base (EU-DB): To fill in gaps, but also for ‘experimental’ work - NFC dynamic modelling output: 7 variables for 14 scenarios in 9 reference years - VSD modelling results (using EU-DB): To fill gaps and for experiments/investigations … and … - Linearised version of the EMEP model: for annual average S, NO x and NH 3 deposition (only) - Other EMEP model output; e.g. concentration fields

6. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Exceedance of acidity CLs Other forms: a) Maps of exceeded area b) Country Tables of exceedances/ exceeded area c) CDFs d) …… Note: Also %area exceeded indicated!

7. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Exceedance of (computed) nutrient N CLs Other forms: see above … What’s presented so far, can also be computed/shown by CIAM (albeit less beautiful!)

8. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Exceedance of empirical CLs (for nutrient N) Grassland Scrubs Forests 1990 CLE 2020 MFR 2020 [Fig6-1]

9. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Comparing the exceedance of empirical and computed CLnutN’s (‘ensemble assessment’) In every EMEP grid cell compare % ecosystem area exceeded for both CL-types and assign ‘likelihood’ of exceedance according to Fig, using IPCC lingo … % area exceeded of computed CLnutN % area exceeded of empirical CLnutN p 1 *p 2 =const

10. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Mapping Ensemble Assessment Prerequisite: Data for both available …..

11. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Examples: Dynamic Modelling: Damage and Recovery Delay Times (DDT and RDT)

12. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Dynamic Modelling: Target Loads & Delay Times

13. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Dynamic Modelling Data Dynamic Modelling output obtained/produced for: 7 variables: [Al], [Bc], pH, [ANC], bsat, C:N ratio, [N] … in the following 9 years: History: 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 … once; and Future: 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2100 … for 14 deposition scenarios [  7 x (4 + 5 x 14) = 518 values per site] Results for arbitrary scenario obtained by interpolation!

14. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Target Loads of N acidity in 2050 CL max (N)TL max (N) Black dot in square: also infeasible TLs!

15. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 48 % area exceeded (AAE > 0) 49 % area violated (AAE >0) Example: Non-achievement (‘violation’) of nutrient-N Target Loads Exceedance of CLnutN Violation of 2050-TLnutn

16. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Exceedance of Critical Levels 2005/06: Update of critical level for NH 3 concentration: - Lichens & bryophytes: 1 µg NH 3 /m 3 - Herbaceous plants: 3±1 µg NH 3 /m 3 (was 8) Reference: Cape JN, Van der Eerden LJ, Sheppard LJ, Leith ID, Sutton MA (2009) Evidence for changing the critical level for ammonia. Environmental Pollution 157: 1033-1037

17. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 AAEnut, 2010 NOx = 0 AAEnut, 2010 NH3 = 0 Example: Exceedance of CLnutN with zero NO x and NH 3 emissions Caveats!

18. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Consequences of ‘equitable’ emission reductions Sorted S and N emission densities (tS|N/km 2 ): S total N NOx-N NH3-N MT 18.552 MT 9.402 MT 5.670 MT 3.731 BG 4.410 NL 5.837 LU 3.259 NL 3.230 BA 4.012 LU 5.161 NL 2.607 BE 2.146 MD 1.727 BE 4.466 BE 2.320 LU 1.901 PL 1.682 DK 2.695 GB 1.350 DK 1.617 BE 1.617 DE 2.458 DK 1.078 IE 1.531 MK 1.615 GB 2.436 IT 1.016 DE 1.446 HU 1.430 IT 2.166 DE 1.013 CH 1.245 Red = S Blue = NO x -N Green = NH 3 -N Black = Total N

19. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 For every max. emission density of NO x and NH 3 the % European ecosystem area exceeded can be seen and the corresponding % European emission reductions Example: Equitable emission reductions and nutrient N exceeded ecosystem area Green horizontal lines: 10%, 25% (top), 50% (solid), 75%, 90% (bottom) European NH 3 emission reduction. Black vertical lines: same for Eurpean NO x emission reductions (right to left).

20. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Example: Equitable emission reductions and acidity CL exceeded ecosystem area For every max. emission density of N and S the % European ecosystem area exceeded can be seen and the corresponding % European emission reductions Red horizontal lines: 10%, 25% (top), 50% (solid), 75%, 90% (bottom) European S emission reduction. Black vertical lines: same for European N emission Reductions (right to left)

21. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 S: NOx: NH3: MT 94.8% MT 76.7% MT 84.5% BG 78.2% NL 73.1% NL 75.0% BA 76.1% BE 59.6% LU 71.7% MD 44.4% LU 54.3% BE 67.3% PL 42.9% DK 46.3% DK 45.8% BE 40.6% IE 43.3% DE 40.6% MK 40.5% DE 39.9% GB 40.1% HU 32.9% CH 30.3% IT 32.6% RO 31.8% IT 24.5% IE 25.7% CS 29.3% FR 21.4% CH 17.5% TR 12.3% MD 20.3% FR 14.7% GB 20.0% MD 12.6% RO 12.1% PL 0.7% BG 5.3% Countries not in column  no reduction Example (cont’d): Reducing European emissions by 50% (S and N) in this equitable way would require the following reductions in individual countries: Remarks: (a) Not effects-based! (b) Interesting, but probably difficult to agree upon … (c) Linearised EMEP model stretched to limit! (d) Similar examples easy to investigate

22. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Further Examples: e.g. - Influence of climate change on Critical Loads (and dynamic model results) - Influence of land cover changes on CLs - More detailed modelling of biodiversity (changes) (on Natura 2000 and other protected areas) - ….. … and so on … and so on …

23. Coordination Centre for Effects, TFIAM Meeting, Bilthoven, 8-10 June 2009 Conclusions: A variety of ex-post analyses can be carried out by the ICP M&M with respect to: - the exceedance of Critical Loads and Levels (N&S) - the state and timing of chemical recovery with the aid of Dynamic Modelling (results) - preliminary biodiversity assessments using empirical critical loads, dose-response functions Important are contributions by other ICPs to make full use of the WGE’s accumulated potential and knowledge.