Dr. Richard de Neufville

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Presentation transcript:

Dr. Richard de Neufville Massive Uncertainty Dr. Richard de Neufville Professor of Systems Engineering and Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN Massive Uncertainty Objective: To present realistic context of forecasting exercise Topics Evidence Consequences Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN Causes of Uncertainty Underlying variability of phenomenon Difficulties in measurement or estimation Unforeseen or “unpredictable” circumstances Limits to valid measurement for example: behavioral patterns Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN Evidence 1. Simple Physical Systems 2. Overall Traffic 3. Local Traffic (Worse) 4. Other Operations Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

Ratio of Real Costs to Estimated Costs for Airport Projects Costs expressed in constant dollars Median ~= 1.25 Percent of Occurrences Real/Estimated Cost Ratio Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

Cost Growth for Various Projects 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Ratio of Actual to Estimated Cost DOD60 HWAY WATER BLDNG DOD50 ADHOC MAJOR ENRGY NASA NASA AVG St.Dev. CONST SAT m g Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

NASA Projects Cost Growth 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Ratio of Actual to Estimated Cost HST GLL UARS GRO COBE MGL MOBS LSAT EUVE ERBE AVG St.Dev. Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN Forecasting Errors Nature of Traffic Type of Traffic Percent Error which is Exceeded Half the Time after Each year One Year Two Years Three Years Four Years Five Years Six Years International US Domestic Passengers Pax-Miles Average 8.0 7.2 7.6 2.9 10.9 6.2 6.0 6.1 14.0 13.8 13.9 11.2 10.6 10.9 14.0 15.7 14.9 14.1 14.5 14.3 15.1 16.7 15.9 18.3 15.8 19.5 17.6 20.4 21.8 21.1 Average Errors in the Forecasts of Air Traffic of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, 1958-71 Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

FAA Forecasts Compared with Actual Data (% Difference) Review of the FAA 1982 National Airspace System Plan Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

Forecast vs. Actual International Pax in Japan Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

Forecast vs. Actual International Pax to Japan Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

Forecast vs Actual International Pax in Sydney Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT 1980 FORECAST Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT 1985 FORECAST Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

1990 FORECAST ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

1998 FORECAST ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

Summary and Recommendations Forecast Errors have been large Likely to continue Recommendations: Expensive Forecasting is cost-ineffective Use general trends ...With large ranges Flexible Approach to Planning!!! Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN