1. Dr. Richard de Neufville
Massive Uncertainty
Dr. Richard de Neufville
Professor of Engineering Systems and
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

2. Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN
Massive Uncertainty
Objective: To present realistic context of forecasting exercise
Topics
Evidence
Consequences
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

3. Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN
Causes of Uncertainty
Underlying variability of phenomenon
Difficulties in measurement or estimation
Unforeseen or “unpredictable” circumstances
Limits to valid measurement
for example: behavioral patterns
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

4. Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN
Evidence
1. Simple Physical Systems
2. Overall Traffic
3. Local Traffic (Worse)
4. Other Operations
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

5. Ratio of Real Costs to Estimated Costs for Airport Projects
Costs expressed in constant dollars
Median ~= 1.25
Percent of Occurrences
Real/Estimated Cost Ratio
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

6. Cost of asphalt rising Local road repairs are likely to lag
By Kay Lazar, Globe Correspondent June 8, 2006
The soaring cost of petroleum -- a primary ingredient of asphalt -- has forced many communities to shoulder a 50 percent increase in costs as crews head out to repave roads this summer. Asphalt sticker shock is creating heartburn for legions of highway chiefs, prompting many to significantly curtail the number of roads they intend to repair this season.
And the going may get even tougher. Two major asphalt suppliers for the region are warning of another 50 percent increase by Thanksgiving -- in addition to potential shortages
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

7. Cost Growth for Various Projects
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Ratio of Actual to Estimated Cost
DOD60 HWAY WATER BLDNG DOD50 ADHOC MAJOR ENRGY NASA NASA AVG St.Dev.
CONST SAT m g
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

8. NASA Projects Cost Growth
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Ratio of Actual to Estimated Cost
HST GLL UARS GRO COBE MGL MOBS LSAT EUVE ERBE AVG St.Dev.
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

9. Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN
Results of a 2004 study
Adapted from: Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Accuracy Assessment Results
Jerome Friedman, MITRE CAASD, Sept. 30, 2004
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

10. Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN
Results of a 2004 study
Adapted from: Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Accuracy Assessment Results
Jerome Friedman, MITRE CAASD, Sept. 30, 2004
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

11. Recent Error Data from U.S Source: MITRE CAASD and FAA
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

12. Recent Error Data from U.S Source: MITRE CAASD and FAA
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

13. Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN
Actual vs. Forecast 10 years earlier Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY
Note: These are aggregate NATIONAL data, in which greater local variations tend to cancel each other out
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

14. Older FAA Forecasts vs. Actual Data (% Difference)
Review of the FAA 1982 National Airspace System Plan
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

15. Forecast vs. Actual International Pax in Japan
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

16. Forecast vs. Actual International Pax to Japan
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

17. Forecast vs Actual International Pax in Sydney
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

18. ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
1980 FORECAST
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

19. ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
1985 FORECAST
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

20. 1990 FORECAST ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

21. 1998 FORECAST ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN

22. Summary and Recommendations
Forecast Errors have been large
Likely to continue
Recommendations:
Expensive Forecasting is cost-ineffective
Use general trends
...With large ranges
Flexible Approach to Planning!!!
Airport Systems Planning & Design / RdN