1. Aviation Fuels Forecast Methodology Joint Lead Commissioner Workshop on Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts March 19, 2015 Gordon Schremp Energy Assessments Division California Energy Commission Gordon.schremp@energy.ca.gov California Energy Commission

2. Outline Aviation fuels – Types and historical consumption Aviation fuel forecast approach – Federal information resources Historical data FAA projections – Adjustments based on California relationship to national trends 3/19/20152 California Energy Commission

3. Aviation Fuels Three types: – Aviation gasoline, military jet fuel, and commercial jet fuel Historical data resources & methodology – Aviation gasoline Monthly data published by the California State Board of Equalization (BOE) – Military jet fuel – JP5 and JP8 Supply/demand balance constructed based on: – Defense Logistics Agency (DLA Energy) solicitation packages & addendums – CEC PIIRA data for refinery production, marine imports & pipeline exports – Regional analysis for CA, AZ, NV & NM – 67 individual locations – delivery terminals and military bases – Commercial jet fuel – Jet A Supply/demand balance constructed based on: – CEC PIIRA data for refinery production, marine imports/exports & pipeline exports – Regional analysis for CA, AZ & NV – BOE publishes taxable jet fuel volumes – for private jets, not in-plane fueling of commercial aircraft 3/19/20153 California Energy Commission

4. California Aviation Fuel Demand (2004 – 2013) California Energy Commission Sources: Board of Equalization, Defense Logistics Agency, and PIIRA data. 3/19/20154 Commercial jet fuel dominates aviation fuel use accounting for 91.4 percent of total over the last decade while military jet fuel amounted to 8 percent and aviation gasoline only 0.6 percent.

5. Aviation Fuel Forecast Approach Aviation fuel demand projections developed for California, not part of CEC transportation forecast modeling No aviation gasoline demand projections Commercial jet fuel demand forecast – Will incorporate projections for military jet fuel use as military continues to shift from JP8 to Jet A Will develop demand forecast based on federal projections of: – Total fuel consumed for passenger & air cargo activity – Enplaned passenger projections for California – Fuel consumption relationship for enplaned passengers 3/19/20155 California Energy Commission

6. Historical Aviation Data Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) – Track information on aviation activity Domestic and international carriers Numbers of passengers boarding planes – enplaned passengers Routes & segments Passenger miles traveled Air cargo – ton miles Fuel consumption by domestic and international activity – Historical files can be extracted from their T100 database Actual revenue passenger enplanements for all California airports Used to calibrate historical fuel consumption data through most current year available from BTS database 3/19/20156 California Energy Commission

7. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Annual publication – 20-year outlook Fuel consumption projections for domestic and international activity for U.S. carriers – Includes passenger & cargo Passenger traffic projections – Enplaned passenger projections by airport Fuel use forecasts assumptions for – Load factors by aircraft type – Fuel efficiency improvements Passenger and cargo projections based on – Economic growth, fuel prices, etc. 3/19/20157 California Energy Commission

8. Additional Forecast Adjustments FAA forecasts for fuel consumption are national projections only, no state-specific forecasts California enplaned passenger forecasts used to adjust per- passenger fuel consumption projections California historical average fuel consumption per enplaned passenger already higher than national average – Greater percentage of international destinations compared to U.S. average FAA forecasts do not include high and low demand cases Staff will examine options to create a bounded forecast – One example – varying the portion of international enplaned passenger traffic 3/19/20158 California Energy Commission

9. Additional Q & A California Energy Commission 3/19/20159