Research Project Overview Introduction to Homeland Security Research Project Overview Overview and Templates

Risk Three questions to ask when considering risk: What can happen? How likely is it? (probability) What are the consequences? Risk = the probability of occurrence x the consequences

Risk (cont.) Probability most difficult to determine Often based more on expert judgment than concrete evidence Can use historical data to calculate probability

Risk (cont.) Example of probability estimates Certain: >99% chance of occurring in a given year (One or more occurrence a year) Likely: 50-99% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 1 to 2 years) Possible: 5-49% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 2 to 20 years) Unlikely: 2-5% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 20 to 50 years) Rare: 1-2% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 50 to 100 years) Extremely Rare: <1% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 100 or more years)

Risk (cont.) Consequences: a measure of expected disaster impacts Tangible – loss of life, property Intangible – psychological impact, morale Difficult to quantify Once factors are determined, it is possible to compare risks Risk matrix

Consequences Measure Tangible Losses Intangible Losses Deaths # of people Loss of economically active individuals Social & psych. effects on remaining community Injuries # & injury severity Med. treatment needs, temp. loss of economic activity by productive individuals Social & psych. Pain & recovery Physical damage Inventory of damaged elements by # & damage level Replacement & repair cost Cultural losses Emergency operations Value of manpower, person-days employed, equip. & resources expended to relief mobilization cost, investment in preparedness capability Stress & overwork in relief participants Disruption to economy # of working days lost, volume of prod. lost Value of lost production opportunities, & in competitiveness & reputation Social disruption Number of working days lost Temp. housing, relief, & economic production Psych., social contacts, cohesion, comm. morale Environmental impact Scale & severity Cleanup costs, repair costs Consequences of poorer environment, health risks, risk of future disaster

LIKELIHOOD (Probability) Example Risk Matrix 1-20 = Low Risk CONSEQUENCES (NOTE: Below are only examples. You will have to determine the consequences particular to your site.) 21-40 = Moderate Risk 20 Insignificant damage to property & equipment, minor injury 40 Non-reportable injury, minor loss of process/ business, or slight damage to property 60 Reportable injury, moderate loss of process/ business, or limited damage to property 80 Major injury, single fatality, critical loss of process/ business, or damage to property 100 Multiple fatalities, catastrophic loss of process/ business, or loss of property 41-59 = High Risk 60-100 = Extremely High Risk LIKELIHOOD (Probability) Certain: >99% (.99) Likely: 50-99% (.50-.99) 10 - 19.8 20 - 39.6 30 – 59.4 40 - 79.2 50 - 99 Possible: 5-49% (.05-.49) 1 – 9.8 2 – 19.6 3 – 29.4 4 – 39.2 5 - 49 Unlikely: 2-5% (.02-.05) .4 - 1 .8 - 2 1.2 - 3 1.6 - 4 2 - 5 Rare: 1-2% (.01-.02) .2 - .4 .4 - .8 .6 – 1.2 .8 – 1.6 1 - 2 Extremely Rare: <1% (.009) .18 .36 .54 .72 .99

CIKR Project Template The following is a suggested CIKR project format Use the previous risk matrix to evaluate your site Multiply the numbers in the parentheses in the Likelihood axis by the number in the Consequences axis This will give you your overall risk

CIKR Description Template Location Map or maps? Photos? Description/Function What does it do? What is its function? NOTE: Do not give a history of the site unless it is a necessary part of its description Justification as a CIKR Why is it important?

Hazard Evaluation Template (There should be one for each hazard that is evaluated ) Hazard (e.g. – 5.0/moderate earthquake, cat. 2 hurricane, power outage, etc.) Likelihood Value Justification (how you arrived at the value) Consequence Description (what exactly could/might happen) Total Risk Number Ranking __ out of __ (of all the risks you are evaluating) Discussion/evaluation of mitigation/preparedness/ prevention efforts (if any)

Risk (cont.) Once risk is identified, how can it be mitigated? Risk managers try to reduce either or both: Probability Consequence

Mitigation Mitigation: a sustained action to reduce or eliminate risk to people & property from hazards & their effects Mitigation activities address either or both components of risk Probability (likelihood) Consequence Mitigating either one reduces the threat

Prevention Actions & Programs Prevention: actions taken to avoid an incident or intervening to stop an incident from occurring, in an effort to save lives & property National Response Framework (NRF) may be implemented for threats or potential incidents of national significance to prevent or intervene in order to lessen the impact of an incident

Prevention Actions & Programs (cont.) Prevention activities may include: Heightened inspections Improved surveillance & security operations Public health & agricultural surveillance & testing Immunizations, isolation, or quarantine Specific law enforcement operations aimed at deterring, preempting, interdicting, or disrupting illegal activity & apprehending potential perpetrators & bringing them to justice

Prevention Actions & Programs (cont.) Most prevention activities are related to terrorism As defined w/in the NRF, any activity that intends to prevent terrorist attacks can be qualified as a prevention measure

Preparedness Preparedness: a state of readiness to respond to a disaster, crisis, or any other type of emergency situation Preparedness activities can be categorized as the human component of hazard management Most common: Training Public Education They do little to prevent a disaster, but are very effective at ensuring that people know what to do once one has happened

Preparedness Actions & Programs It includes those activities, programs, & systems that exist before an emergency that are used to support & enhance response to an emergency or disaster Evacuation drills First responder training

Preparedness (cont.) Important part of the EM cycle Provides for the readiness & testing of all actions & plans prior to actual application in a real event or disaster Close connection between mitigation & preparedness Difference can sometimes be unclear Preparedness is the planning for best response Mitigation is all efforts to prevent or lessen the need for response