Training and Assessment Priorities: Applying a risk management methodology to quantify importance Mr. Duncan Tippins

The Problem: The advances in the science and technology facing meteorologists are substantial, and growing. Increasing spatial and temporal in satellite observations. Increasing resolution in NWP (Convection allowing) Increasing diversity and complexity in observations (dual polar radars) Increased understanding of weather impacts for customers Similar problems faced by observational staff as they transition to new roles.

Where do you start? Classic (and sound) approaches to prioritise training include: Stakeholder engagement. Training needs analysis. Organisational priorities (funded projects). Financial deadlines.

And sometimes you still get your priorities wrong

Is there another (better) way? Let's look at the risk management toolkit.. Risk Management Process: Risk Identification Risk assessment Controls & Treatments Residual risk assessment Monitoring Training is mainly a risk treatment

Classic Risk Assessment Combination of likelihood and consequence gives risk category Consequence   Negligible Low Medium High Extreme Likelihood Almost Certain 4.Significant 3.Major 2.High 1.Severe Likely 5.Moderate Moderate 6.Low Unlikely 7.Negligible Rare Gives a subjective risk categorisation

WH&S Risk Assessment Combination of likelihood, consequence and exposure LIKELIHOOD Score   CONSEQUENCE: EXPOSURE Almost Certain Expected to occur 60 Extreme Fatality or fatalities attributed to Bureau actions or omission 40 Continuously At all times except for scheduled breaks or many times daily 1.4 Likely Will probably occur in most circumstances 29 High Extensive injuries that are irreversible or requiring extensive surgery 10 Frequently 10 times/hour or more than 75% of roster period or more than once daily 1.3 Moderate Might occur at some time 9 Medium Serious injury requiring medical treatment and ongoing treatment or lost time. 7 Occasionally 6-9 times/hour/50% – 75% of roster period or once a week to once a month 1.2 Unlikely May occur only in exceptional circumstances 3 Low Minor injury (reversible health damage) that may require medical attention and limited ongoing treatment. Infrequently 3-5 times/hour or 25% - 50% of roster period or once a month to once a year 1.1 Rare Could happen but probably never will 1 Negligible Nil or negligible injuries that may require only local first aid. Rarely < 2 times/hour/<25% of roster period or more than 1 year to 5 years. 1.0

(dis)Benefits of WH&S Risk Assessment Give numerical risk score Allows more direct comparison of risk BUT Still reliant on subjective assessment Needs translation to training context

Risk Management Example – Workplace Safety HAZARD S IDENTIFI ED   RISK Existing Risk Control Measures Risk Assessment (Score) Risk Score LxCx E Ris k Le vel Additional Control Measures required Residual Risk (Score) LxCxE Lev el Responsibl e Person Target Compl etion Date Additio nal control s Implem ented Yes/No L C E Driving (esp. long distance and remote) Long distances travelled to get to work sites. Vehicle incident/ Road Traffic Accident Engineering: Fleet management / vehicle selection (5 star ANCAP ratings) Administrative: Safe Driving Procedure Fatigue Management Procedure Driving and mobile phone use Call in procedures (PLBs, Sat Phones) Pre-trip checks Trip planning Driver and manager education (MUARC), Defensive, 4WD M H O 108 MAJ Review of vehicle selection (O&I funded) Review of vehicle loading (O&I funded) Review of GPS tracking systems (O&I initiative) 75.6 SIG O&I WHS&E Management Committee TBD

Risk Management – Training application Modification to likelihood, consequence, exposure terminology. Need to develop an understanding of difference between likelihood and exposure. LIKELIHOOD Score   CONSEQUENCE: EXPOSURE Almost Certain Expected to occur 60 Extreme Fatalities and/or extensive property damage where avoidance/preparedness was limited by Bureau service or system failure 40 Continuously At least once a day (eg Max T forecast) 1.4 Likely Will probably occur in most circumstances 29 High Significant injuries and/or property damage where avoidance/preparedness was limited by Bureau service or system failure 10 Frequently Roughly once a week (eg 1.3 Moderate Might occur at some time 9 Medium Serious reputational damage to Bureau or government through service or system failure. 7 Occasionally Once a week to once a month (eg AWS outage) 1.2 Unlikely May occur only in exceptional circumstances 3 Low Service or system doesn’t meet all the expectations of community. Infrequently Once a month to once a year (eg Tropical cyclone) 1.1 Rare Could happen but probably never will 1 Negligible Nil or negligible consequence. Rarely More than 1 year to 5 years (eg major bushfire/ flood). 1.0

Training Risk Assessment - Examples HAZARDS IDENTIFIED   RISK Existing Risk Control Measures Risk Assessment (Score) Risk Score LxCxE Level Additional Control Measures required Residual Risk (Score) L C E Large Hail Large hail not identified within meteorological observations STS competency assessments for all forecasters issuing STS warnings 9 10 1.1 99 MAJ Additional mandatory training in application of dual polarized products 3 33 SIG Radar Outage Radar not available during significant weather event. Basic Radar and radar update training. 7 69 Additional mandatory training in radar fault detection and first in maintenance 23 MOD

From here Refine risk score for training context Collect feedback on likelihood, consequence and exposure ratings. Trial assessment methodology in 2018 training funding allocation cycle.

Thank you… Presenter’s name Presenter’s phone number Email@bom.gov.au