An Agriculture Perspective

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Presentation transcript:

An Agriculture Perspective State of the Science Risk Management Policy An Agriculture Perspective

Forecasting into the Future Distribution of agricultural crops is not expected to change significantly. Changes in rainfall amounts have caused a shift in South Dakota and North Dakota. Emissions of GHG will be affected more by management and the interaction with climate. Extreme events in temperature and precipitation, impacts on agriculture

Climate – Crop Models Extreme events in temperature and precipitation, seasonality Seasonal shifts in precipitation (upper Midwest increase in spring precipitation, decrease in summer precipitation) Role of the soil is overlooked from a water availability and nutrient source Continued degradation of soil resource on a worldwide basis, potential for erosion in the spring

Water Requirements Water Deficit: need 120 mm more water to grow 300 bu corn

Information Needed Spatial scale Temporal scale Crop reporting district or county level Temporal scale Daily timesteps with emphasis on extremes Examine agriculture from the perspective of a crop calendar Planting decisions Growth impacts Harvest decisions

Biophysical Modeling Interaction among parameters driving plant growth Effect of plant stress on grain, fruit, or forage quality Effect of climate stress on plants and the interactions with weeds, insects, and diseases Water availability to plants (role of soil is overlooked)

Priorities Understand how risk intersects with the dynamics of agricultural systems Understand the interactions among driving variables and crop or animal responses Understand how uncertainty interacts with the spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural systems

US Corn Production

South Dakota Crop Distribution

North Dakota Crop Distribution

Midwest Corn

Winter Wheat

Urea vs ESN

Urea vs ESN

-Fertilizer applied May 5 (DOY 125) at rate of 112 kg N / ha -Peak N2O emissions observed on May 27 (DOY 147) and on June 23 (DOY 174).

Check UAN UAN+Ag Super U ESN Peak N2O emissions that occurred on May 27 and June 23 accounted for 6.7%, 17.6%, 24.5%, 32.9% and 26.5% of the cumulative seasonal N2O emissions for the Check, UAN, UAN+Ag, Super U and ESN treatments, respectively. No significant difference in cumulative fluxes when peak emissions are excluded.

Spring Precipitation (Ames)

Nighttime Temperatures (Ames)

Soybean Production Field Late August 2005

Soil Water Availability Hudson, 1994

Crop response to the environment is a complex set of interactions among light, temperature, CO2, and water. Future development of biophysical models will have to account for these interactions.