1. Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy and Climate Change Climate Change and Agriculture John M. Antle Dept. of Ag Econ & Econ

2. Overview Facts and hypotheses Climate change issues: impacts, adaptation, mitigation The evidence: Global, US, regional and MT Policy implications

3. Facts Greenhouse effect GHG emissions Observed changes –Warming –More extemes –Sea-level rise –Glacial, ice-cap melting –Seasonal shifts see www.ipcc.ch

4. Hypotheses Observed changes are anthropogenic (caused by human GHG emissions) Impacts (costs) of CC will be sufficient to warrant mitigation or adaptation Mitigation actions can reduce climate change and are more cost effective than adaptation

5. The evidence that CC is anthropogenic…

6. Emissions scenarios and global temps…

7. Impacts and adaptation: stay and adapt or move? Population: from coasts & south & southwest to inland & north Agriculture: from extremes of temperature & precipitation to more favorable places -Changes in crops, management -CO2 fertilization effect -Insect, disease, weeds?

8. Impact assessment: Global Positive: temperate regions with good soils & increases in precipitation Negative: tropical regions, areas with lower precipitation -Coastal areas, tropical dryland areas highly vulnerable IPCC predicts “…a marginal increase in the number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change.”

9. Impact assessment: U.S. Regional differences important -Yield impacts negative in south, mixed or positive in mid-west, plains, northwest -Livestock impacts negative (5-10%) -Changes in planting dates, crop mix in transitional areas -Western areas vulnerable to drought Aggregate impacts small, may be positive

10. Impact assessment: U.S. Regions

11. Impact assessment: Montana Wheat & Barley Montana Agro-ecozones (MLRAs)

13. Mitigation: Global Costs (IPCC)

14. Mitigation: Potential for Soil Carbon Sequestration in Northern Plains Crop and Grazing Lands

15. Policy Implications U.S. mitigation policies likely with new U.S. administration: carbon cap-and-trade Higher costs of fossil fuels Opportunities for agricultural mitigation: conservation tillage, grazing management Opportunities for wind energy and bio- fuels?

16. For more information: www.ipcc.ch (summary for policy makers) www.choicesmagazine.org/2008- 1/index.htm www.climate.montana.edu