Reviewing the 2016 Election Stephen J. Farnsworth, Ph.D. University of Mary Washington sfarnswo@umw.edu @drsfarnsworth

How the US Voted, 2016 Versus 2012 Race & Gender Percent of ‘16 Electorate Clinton Obama Change from ’12 70 White 37 39 -2 12 African American 88 93 -5 11 Latino 65 71 -6 03 Asian American 65 73 -8 48 Male 41 45 -4 52 Female 54 55 -1 [2016 Overall Results: Clinton 48 Trump 47.8] [2012 Overall Results: Obama 51 Romney 48] Note: Positive changes are movements towards Clinton and negative changes are away from Clinton Source: Edison Research national exit poll of 24,537 election day and early voters.

How the US Voted, 2016 Versus 2012 Income and Religion Percent of ‘16 Electorate Clinton Obama Change from ’12 36 Less Than $50,000 Income 52 60 -8 31 $50,000-99,999 46 46 0 33 $100,000 or more 47 44 3 52 Protestant 39 42 -3 23 Catholic 45 50 -5 03 Jewish 71 69 2 08 Something else 62 74 -12 15 None 68 70 -2 Born again? 26 Yes 16 21 -5 74 No 59 60 -1 Source: Edison Research national exit poll of 24,537 election day and early voters.

How the US Voted 2016: Education & Key Issues Percent of ‘16 Electorate Clinton Trump 18 High School or Less 45 51 32 Some College, Associate Degree 43 52 32 College graduate 49 45 18 Post-graduate study 58 37 Most Important Issue 52 Economy 52 42 13 Immigration 32 64 18 Terrorism 39 57 13 Foreign Policy 60 34 Source: Edison Research national exit poll of 24,537 election day and early voters.

How the US Voted 2016: Candidate Qualities & Future Expecatations Percent of ‘16 Electorate Clinton Trump Candidate Qualities that Matter Most 39 Can bring needed change 14 83 15 Cares about people like me 58 35 20 Has good judgment 66 26 21 Has right experience 90 08 Expect Life for the next generation to be 37 Better 59 38 24 Same 54 39 34 Worse 31 63 Source: Edison Research national exit poll of 24,537 election day and early voters.

Candidate Evaluations Q: Who is more honest and trustworthy _______? Clinton Trump October 30-31 38 46 September 6-9 45 45 Source: Washington Post polls of roughly 1,000 adults during the time periods indicated. Q: Percentage of voters who say ____ describes each candidate. Clinton Trump Honest 33 37 Well-qualified 62 32 Hard to Like 59 70 Reckless 43 69 Source: Pew Research Center Survey of 2,583 adults, October 20-25, 2016.

The Key States: 2016 Versus 2012 Electoral Votes Clinton Obama Change from ’12 Last R 29 Florida 48 50 -2 2004 20 Pennsylvania 48 52 -4 1988 18 Ohio 44 51 -7 2004 16 Michigan * 47 54 -7 1988 10 Wisconsin 47 53 -6 1984 11 Arizona 45 45 0 2012 13 Virginia 50 51 -1 2004 04 New Hampshire 48 52 -4 2000 *State not called, but Trump leads Source: Edison Research national exit poll of 24,537 election day and early voters.

US Public Preferences for U.S. Policy, 2016 Top Priority Important 1. Strengthening the nation’s economy 75 22 2. Defending country from future terrorist attacks 75 20 3. Improving the educational system 66 26 4. Improving the job situation 64 29 5. Make the Social Security system financially sound 62 31 6. Reducing health care costs 61 29 7. Make the Medicare system financially sound 58 34 8. Reducing crime 57 32 9. Reducing the budget deficit 56 33 10. Dealing with problems of poor/needy people 54 36 11. Dealing with the issue of immigration 51 35 Strengthening the U.S. military 49 29 Source: The results here are from a nationwide telephone survey of 2,009 U.S. adults conducted January 7-14, 2016 by the Pew Research Center.

International Concerns of Trump & Clinton Supporters % of Supporters of Trump/Clinton saying ___ is a Major Threat to the US Trump Clinton Islamic militant group in Iraq & Syria, known as ISIS 91 76 Cyber attacks from other countries 78 69 Large number of refugees leaving Iraq & Syria 74 40 Global economic instability 69 62 Rapid international spread of infectious diseases 58 63 China’s emergence as a global power 57 46 Tensions with Russia 48 38 Climate Change 26 77 Source: Pew Research Center. The 2016 results here are from a nationwide telephone survey of 2,008 U.S. adults conducted April 12-19, 2016.