1. December 5, 2016 Conducting the Exit Polls in the U.S.:
Methodological Issues and
Current Challenges
December 5, 2016

2. Joe Lenski Executive Vice President and co-founder of Edison Research
Statistical Associate – CBS News, Election & Survey Unit:
Consultant – Voter Research & Surveys and Voter News Service:
Decision Team Analyst – CNN and CBS News:

3. Edison Research: Exit Polling
Edison Research currently conducts all United States exit polling for the National Election Pool (NEP), consisting of ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press
Major election exit polls include:
California Recall Election, October 2003
Kentucky and Mississippi Governor Election, November 2003
23 Democratic Presidential Primaries & Caucuses, January to March 2004
General Election, November 2004
General Election, November 2006
40 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses, January to June 2008
General Election, November 2008
Georgia Senate Run-off, December 2008
General Election, November 2008 (NJ & VA Gov., NYC Mayor)
General Election, November 2010
20 Republican Presidential Primaries & Caucuses, January to April 2012
General Election, November 2012
NYC Democratic Primary for Mayor, September 2013
General Election, November 2013 (NJ & VA Gov., NYC Mayor)
General Election, November 2014
Chicago Mayoral Election, April 2015
28 Presidential Primaries & Caucuses, February to May 2016
General Election, November 2016

4. Edison Research: Exit Polling
International exit polls conducted by Edison Research include:
Azerbaijan Parliamentary Election, November 2005
Tbilisi, Georgia Mayoral Election, May 2010
Georgia Parliamentary Election, October 2012
Venezuela Presidential Election, October 2012
Cyprus Presidential Election, February 2013
Iraq Parliamentary Election, April 2014

5. Scope of 2016 Exit Polling
933 polling locations in 2016 Presidential Election
More than 110,000 interviews conducted
More than 70,000 questionnaires processed on Election Day, including more than 16,000 telephone surveys of absentee and early voters
Computer system takes in data and delivers results in real-time to dozens of news organizations around the world
Computations conducted and exit poll analysis delivered for 28 state surveys and one nationally-representative survey

6. Current issues in exit polling
Increasing proportion of results being cast before election day
Decreasing response rates
Differential non-response rates
Interviewer-respondent interaction
Security of exit poll data before poll closing

7. Current issues in exit polling: Absentee & Early Voting
Many states have extended the ability of voters to cast votes before election day either through in-person early voting or by-mail absentee voting
The percentage of voters who cast their vote before election has increased from 16% in 2000 to an estimated 22% in 2004 and it grew to 34% in 2008, 35% in 2012 & 2014 and an estimated 41% in 2016
Three states – Colorado, Oregon and Washington - now conduct all voting by mail – ten other states – Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas – have more than 50% of votes cast before election day

8. Current issues in exit polling: Absentee & Early Voting
Voters who cast votes before election day can not be interviewed at the polling place on election day
In states that have in-person early voting, Edison Research has experimented with using exit polling methodology at early voting centers – however this adds a sampling factor of time since votes can be cast over a two to three week period
In order to include absentee and early voters in our surveys the NEP conducts telephone surveys of absentee/early votes in more than a dozen states with a high proportion of early voting, and merges that data with surveys of voters conducted on election day

9. Current issues in exit polling: Decreasing response rates%

10. Current issues in exit polling: Decreasing response rates
Exit polls in the United States had been experiencing a consistent drop in response rates:
2000 General Election 54%
2004 General Election 53%
2006 General Election 45%
2008 Presidential Primaries 43%
2008 General Election 46%
2010 General Election 45%
2012 General Election 48%
2014 General Election 45%
2016 General Election 44%
However, response rates for exit polls in other countries where exit polls are a new phenomenon are higher – for example, Edison Research conducted its first exit poll in Puerto Rico for the Democratic Presidential Primary in June 2008 and the response rate was 66%

11. Current issues in exit polling: Decreasing response rates
Other factors effecting response rates:
Distance that exit poll interviewer is forced to stand away from polling location exit
Weather conditions
Multiple exits at polling location
Cooperation of local election officials
In response, the NEP has successfully won legal challenges to 100 foot distance restrictions on exit poll interviewing in six states – Florida, Nevada, Minnesota, New Jersey, Ohio and South Dakota
The NEP has also introduced smaller questionnaires to help improve response rates

12. Current issues in exit polling: Differential non-response rates
There are differential non-response rates by demographic groups. The Edison Research exit polls are able to adjust for non-response by age, race and gender; however, other demographic categories – education, income, political party – can not be identified visually by exit poll interviewers

13. FAST FACTS ON EXIT POLLING
Current issues in exit polling: Differential non-response rates
Republican Party web site posted attacks against the
reliability of exit poll on election day 2006 and this can
help explain why Republicans tend to be less likely to
participate in exit polls
  BEWARE OF EXIT POLLS
Biased And Inaccurate Predictions Have Led To Poor GOP Exit Poll Showings In Past Three National Elections _______________________________________
FAST FACTS ON EXIT POLLING
Election Experts Believe Exit Polls Give An Edge And Sway Towards Democrat Candidates. EXIT POLLS TRADITIONALLY HAVE A DEMOCRAT BIAS

14. Current issues in exit polling: Interviewer-respondent interaction
There is evidence of interviewer-respondent interactions that affect both the response rates by demographic group and the accuracy of exit poll estimates
Older voters are less likely to complete an exit poll questionnaire handed to them by a younger interviewer
White voters are less likely to complete an exit poll questionnaire handed to them by an African-American interviewer

15. Current issues in exit polling: Security of exit poll data before poll closing
The national news organizations have made a pledge to Congress that they will not report any exit poll results that “characterize” the outcome of the election until all polls in that state have closed
In 2004 early exit poll results were leaked to several internet web sites before the polls closed
Beginning in 2006 the NEP established a “Quarantine Room” in which a limited number of survey data analysts were allowed to have access to the exit poll data before 5PM

16. Question
Answer
Total
CLINTON
TRUMP
JOHNSON
STEIN
OTHER
FAVHCLIN16 (n=4819)
FAVORABLE 43 96 3 1
UNFAV 55 11 81 6 2
FAVTRUMP (n=4819) 38 4 95 60 77 15 5
FAVPRES16 (n=4819)
BOTH -
ONLYCLINTON 41 98
ONLYTRUMP 36
NEITHER 18 30 47 16

17. Question
Answer
Total
CLINTON
TRUMP
JOHNSON
STEIN
OTHER
CLINHONEST (n=4863)
YES 36 94 4 1 NO 61 20 72 2
TRUMPHONEST (n=4863) 33 6 64 71 3
HONEST16 (n=4863)
BOTH -
ONLYCLINTON 34 97
ONLYTRUMP 31 98
NEITHER 29 40 43 8 5

18. Question
Answer
Total
CLINTON
TRUMP
JOHNSON
STEIN
OTHER
QUALCLINTON (n=4758)
YES 52 86 9 3 1 NO 47 5 88 4
QUALTRUMP (n=4758) 38 94 61 75 17 2
QUALIFIED16 (n=4758)
BOTH 22 71 6
ONLY CLINTON 46
ONLY TRUMP 32 98 -
NEITHER 15 66 11

19. Question
Answer
Total
CLINTON
TRUMP
JOHNSON
STEIN
OTHER
QLT16 (n=9682)
CARES 15 57 34 3
CHANGE 39 14 82 1
EXPERIENCE 22 90 7
JUDGMENT 20 65 25 6

20. Question
Answer
Total
CLINTON
TRUMP
JOHNSON
STEIN
OTHER
TIME16MONTH (n=4819)
LASTMONTH 26 40 48 7 2 4
BEFORE 73 51 45 1