1. Queen’s University Belfast
Making a Deal with the Devil in Order to Do God’s Bidding: Evangelicals, the 2016 Election, and Beyond
Christopher D. Raymond
Lecturer in Politics
Queen’s University Belfast

2. % Vote for Trump Source: ANES 2016

3. Why? …did Evangelicals (religious Protestants) vote for Trump in 2016?
…did Trump work so hard to court religious Protestants?

4. From the Voter’s Perspective
Demographic threat
Declining share of the population
Cannot enact policy on their own
No credible threat of supporting Democrats
Had to put their faith in Trump
Room for hope in the MAGA coalition
Restoration of traditional values(?)

5. Changing Religious Demography

6. Protestant and Non-Religious Shares of the Population over Time Source: General Social Surveys,

7. Evangelical and Non-Religious Shares of the Electorate over Time, Source: Exit polls conducted in each election

8. From Trump’s View Evangelicals crucial for GOP
Committed core essential in 2000, 2004
No chance of converting Democrats
Needed to make up for Trump’s deficits
Fit into MAGA coalition
Help expand the map?
Trump needed Evangelicals

9. The Marginal Effect of Evangelical Populations on State-Level Vote Shares for Trump in 2016, Conditional on Population Density

10. Changing Effects of Evangelical Populations on Republican Presidential Candidates’ State-Level Vote Shares over Time

11. Simulated Effects of the Evangelical Variable in Marginal States (States Trump Won or Loss by <10%) Italics = Trump Won; Underlined = 90% Sig.
State
Effect
Arizona
0.30
New Hampshire
0.08
Colorado
0.33
New Mexico
0.60
Florida
-0.14
North Carolina
0.01
Georgia
0.04
Ohio
-0.07
Iowa
0.32
Pennsylvania
Maine*
0.38
Texas
0.17
Michigan
Virginia
-0.00
Minnesota
0.27
Wisconsin
0.16
Nevada
0.50

12. Concluding Thoughts Evangelicals needed Trump
Can’t influence the agenda absent Trump
Trump needed Evangelicals
Helped flip, hold states in 2016
Sets up 2020 battleground map
Predictions:
Evangelicals remain loyal to Trump in 2020
Trump delivers on campaign promises

13. Thank you