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2012 Elections and Public Opinion Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli.

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Presentation on theme: "2012 Elections and Public Opinion Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli."— Presentation transcript:

1 2012 Elections and Public Opinion Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

2 Center for the Study of Local Issues: Semi-annual survey Conducted each March and October Involves 70+/- students as telephone interviewers Contents: − Benchmark questions on the economy, most important problem, right/wrong direction, and demographics − Variable questions on current policy choices and major events

3 Plan – focus on the election What are current trends − Most important problem facing residents − Right/wrong direction − Perceptions of the economy − Economic circumstances How are these trends related to choices for president and ballot/referenda items Where are we in the election nationally Discussion!

4 Most Important Problem Taxes

5 County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘12

6 Right/Wrong and Partisanship: % saying “Right” LevelsOverallDem.Rep.Dem- Rep. Unaff. County5058401856 State3655163935 Nation3659134633 Respondent7883711283

7 Obama Vote by Right/Wrong Direction: County, State and USA

8 Economic Conditions Excellent + Good: Fall ‘06 to Fall ‘12

9 Obama Vote by Perceptions of the Economy - County, State, USA

10 Cost of living indicators: S ‘08-F ‘12

11 Other economic indicators

12 Obama Vote by Economic Circumstances – F ‘12

13 Consumer Confidence: F ‘11 – F ‘12

14 Obama Vote and Consumer confidence

15 Obama Vote by Candidate Attributes

16 Obama Vote by Demographics

17 Presidential Job Approval

18 Most important issue by candidate OverallObamaRomneyUndecided Economy 49355968 Trust, honesty, character 7968 Foreign affairs, national security, defense 7590 Healthcare 6944 Women’s issues (abortion, contraception, equal rights) 5934 Dislike of other candidate 5650 Other answers 20281416 Total 99101 100

19 Ballot Items: Referenda

20 Same Sex Marriage by Demographics

21 Dream Act by Demographic Variables

22 County Vote for President OverallDemocratsRepublicansUnaffiliated Barack Obama 42 77834 Mitt Romney 47 148449 Undecided 7588 Someone else 1202 Wouldn’t vote 0002 No answer 2216 Total 99100101

23 Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll

24 Map of Battleground States Nev. Colo. Iowa Wis Ohio Va. NH Fl. NC

25 Vote Estimates ObamaRomney Colorado Votamatic votamatic.org/ 5149 Silver fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate- silver/ 50.148.9 RCP www.realclearpolitics.com/ 48.647.7 49.948.5 Florida Votamatic 50 Silver 49.450.1 RCP 47.949.1 49.7 Iowa Votamatic 51.748.3 Silver 5148 RCP 48.246.2 50.347.5 Nevada Votamatic 5248 Silver 51.347.8 RCP 5047.3 51.147.7 New Hampshire Votamatic 51.748.3 Silver 5148.2 RCP 48.847.5 50.548 ObamaRomney North Carolina Votamatic 4951 Silver 48.451 RCP 4649.8 47.850.6 Ohio Votamatic 51.648.4 Silver 50.748.1 RCP 48.946.6 50.447.7 Virginia Votamatic 5149 Silver 50.149.2 RCP 47.947.4 49.748.5 Wisconsin Votamatic 52.447.6 Silver 51.647.6 RCP 5045 51.346.7 Total Votamatic noneNone Silver 50.548.6 RCP 47.447.3 4948 Electoral College Votamatic 332206 Silver 300237 RCP 290248 307230

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