Expert Meeting Methods for assessing current and future coastal vulnerability to climate change 27 – 28 October 2010 Draft conclusions

Objectives of the meeting Review tools and models to develop coastal vulnerability maps / indices Identify gaps of socio-economic and biophysical data relevant for assessing coastal “vulnerability” (to climate change) Discuss usefulness of coastal vulnerability assessments at the European level for improving coastal management Discuss input to 2012 EEA Coasts report

Conclusions on future requirements to be supported by the EEA: Strengthening efforts for producing data, indicators and maps on socio-economic impacts. Including impacts on maritime sectors Integrating information and developing indicators on the economic value of the ecosystem. Improving cost and benefit analysis on climate change adaptation measures. Making available and useful the current models for policy making: ensuring that EU policies receive information on the scope and possibility to use models. Increasing the links between on-going research projects (EU funds) and the scientific development of models to assess climate change impacts, coastal vulnerability and the need of adaptation measures. Foster all the synergies between all the initiatives on data sharing and make data easily available: clearing house mechanism, EEA products and EDMONET. 27/10/2010

General conclusions (1) (Coastal) vulnerability assessments need to start by specifying a clear policy and/or research question The IPCC definition of vulnerability to climate change can be a starting point for assessments but needs to be operationalized according to the specific policy question More transparency needed across risk-hazard assessments and climate change assessments on concepts and definitions Relevant EU policies and instruments include the White Paper on Adaptation, ICZM (including the ICZM Protocol on Integrated Management of Coastal Areas for the Mediterranean), Floods Directive, Marine Framework Directive, Maritime Spatial Planning, Marine Knowledge, SEA and EIA but also sectoral policies (e.g. energy and transport) Different tools are needed for assessments at different spatial and temporal scales, in different regions (e.g., Wadden Sea vs. Mediterr.), and for different policy purposes Many models to assess coastal vulnerability are research models in “developmental” stage to be used by their developers and (possibly) other scientific experts Model-based decision-support tools are being used for policy support

General conclusions (2) Experience exists regarding assessments of coastal vulnerability from local to continental scales A multi-hazard approach is required to assess the vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change, considering changes in sea level together with sea temperature, storms, salinity, waves, and sedimentation. Coastal assessment requires a transdisciplinary approach There is a need for analysis of adaptation policy measures (e.g., cost-benefit analysis) but this analysis requires different information than vulnerability assessments Estimates of economic costs of climate change vary by at least one order of magnitude depending on assumptions Coarse-scale coastal vulnerability maps and indices have yet to be applied to assess policy effectiveness / efficiency

Conclusions regarding data Monitoring of key relevant parameters is essential (remote and in-situ) Globally available data (e.g., digital elevation models) need to be corrected for application at regional scales The coastal vulnerability index (CVI) has been calculated (with some modifications) to assess the biophysical vulnerability of coastal zones in different regions The CVI has been applied to identify regions where further studies are needed, confirming prior expert knowledge Other indicators have been used to address different policy purposes, which have different data needs

State of Coasts in Europe Report - Draft outline Introduction – setting the scene Trends in state of coastal zones Living by the sea: pressures and impacts Current trends in policy responses Building the conceptual framework for the coast

Comments on the EEA report outline The outline was generally accepted Proposals to include: Spatial planning Insurance aspects Examples of flexible approaches over long-term time line Link to National Adaption Strategies