1. 5th Follow up Committee Meeting HIVA-KUL, 6th October 2009
ADAPT Project: Towards an integrated decision tool for adaptation measures Case study: floods OVERVIEW OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
5th Follow up Committee Meeting
HIVA-KUL, 6th October 2009
Website:
Pr Dr Walter HECQ - Coordinator

2. Presentation plan Context and new elements
The methodology general overview
Work plan and timing

3. Context
It is known that adaptation measures will be necessary to protect populations and ecosystems against climate-related hazards in the next decades (IPCC, 2001; EEA, 2004).
It remains for the policy-maker to select among a wide range of options and possibilities of adaptation measures. In general, the ways and means required to implement these measures appear to be considerable, when compared with the risks to be avoided.
The decision-making principles advocated by international programs stipulate that the choice of adaptation measures must reflect their potential to produce benefits which will surpass their costs.
The overall objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate
an efficient management tool being a cost-benefit analysis based
instrument for the integrated assessment of adaptation measures.

4. Context - New Elements About climate change About adaptation measures
Impacts of Europe’s changing climate- EEA Report (Oct 2008) - Conclusions of the 4th assessment IPCC Reports (Feb 2007), The Stern Review (Nov 2006), the 3rd assessment IPCC reports (2001) are confirmed i.e. Mean winter precipitation in temperate latitudes. Projection for 2100: heavy precipitation will become more frequent
About adaptation measures
EU White Paper (1 Apr 2009) Adapting to climate change: towards a European framework for action “Access to (…) the costs and benefits of different adaptation options.”
Guidance on Water and Climate Adaptation (Transboundary basins) - UNECE (Oct 2008) “The four major methods used for prioritizing and selecting adaptation options are cost-benefit analysis, multicriteria analysis, cost effectiveness analysis and expert judgment”
EU Floods DIRECTIVE (Dir 2007/60/EC - 23 Oct 2007) “Flood risk management plans shall take into account relevant aspects such as costs and benefits”
Plan “PLUIES” - Mapping of flooding areas
The overall objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate
an efficient management tool being a cost-benefit analysis based
instrument for the integrated assessment of adaptation measures.

5. ADAPT - Methodology (general overview)
Climate change modeling
Hydrological modeling
CCI-HYDR
Water discharge
IMPACTS (WP2.1 et WP2.2)
Hydraulic modeling (WP2.1)
RESPONSE
(WP2. 3 et WP2.4)
Primary impacts
Technical
Economic assess. (WP2.2)
Non-technical
Social assess. (id.)
Adaptation measures
Environmental assess. (id.)
Secondary impacts
Evaluation of adaptation measures (WP2.5) = Cost/benefits analysis

6. ADAPT - The methodology (general overview)
Workplan
Phase 1
1. Evaluating primary impacts of global change induced
flooding on river basins (WP2.1)
Assessment of flood characteristics and development of flood maps
Translating hydraulic modelling results into input for the assessment of secondary impacts
Phase 2
2. Evaluating secondary impacts of global change induced flooding on vulnerable sectors in river basins (WP2.2)
Risk assessment, stock at risk
Assessment of environmental, economic and social aspects
 Overall assessment of damage
3. Determining and evaluating adaptation measures (WP2.3 & 2.4)
Definition of both technical and non-technical measures
 Overall assessment of costs and benefits of adaptation measures
4. Cost-benefit analysis (WP2.5)
Implementation of the cost-benefit analysis
Complementary analysis based on impact indicators using criteria analysis (MCA)
Recommendations on adaptation of measures

7. Timing Phase 1: January 1 2006 to December 31 2007
WP1 General study and evaluation
WP2 Case study - Floods
WP2.1 Evaluating primary impacts of global change induced flooding on river basins
WP2.2 Evaluating secondary impacts of global change induced flooding
on vulnerable sectors in river basins
WP2.3 Determining adaptation measures
EVALUATION BY
FOREIGN EXPERTS
September
Phase 2: January to January
WP2 Case study - Floods
WP2.2 Evaluating secondary impacts of global change induced flooding on vulnerable
sectors in river basins
WP2.3 Determining adaptation measures
WP2.4 Evaluating adaptation costs
WP2.5 Cost-benefit analysis
WP2.6 Recommendations on adaptation of measures

8. Evaluation of adaptation scenarios – Lieven De Smet (Arcadis)
AFTERNOON AGENDA
13h15 – 13h25
Introduction to the ADAPT project and the afternoon session – Walter Hecq (CEESE-ULB)
13h25 – 13h50
Adaptation scenarios considered and their expected impact on flooding in the Ourthe and Dender basin – Benjamin Dewals – Niels Van Steenbergen (HACH-ULg – KUL)
13h50 – 14h10
Evaluation of adaptation scenarios – Lieven De Smet (Arcadis)

9. Evaluation of the direct tangible costs of flood damage
14h10 – 14h30
Evaluation of the direct tangible costs of flood damage
and of the direct costs of adaptation scenarios – Eve Giron – Hélène Joachain (CEESE-ULB)
14h30 – 14h45
Evaluation of social flood risk – Ingrid Coninx (HIVA-KUL)
14h45 – 15h00
Evaluation of ecological impacts and opportunities
– Jan Staes (ECOBE-UA)
15h00 – 15h10
Compilation of information on adaptation measures – Eve Giron (CEESE-ULB)
15h10 – 15h20
Conclusions, planning, prospect – Lieven De Smet (Arcadis)
15h20 - …
Discussion

10. THANK YOU!