Bangkok, ECCA Training, September 1, 2017 Empowered Lives. Resilient Nations. Economic Analysis of Localized Weather and Climate Forecast and Water Management Practices for Rice Farming in Oriental Mindoro, Philippines Mia Barbara Aranas PHILIPPINES Bangkok, ECCA Training, September 1, 2017

PROJECT BACKGROUND Province of Oriental Mindoro – Rice Granary of Region 4B Area harvested: 109,046.8 ha Volume of production (2016): 491,271.30 mt Yield: 4.5 mt/ha Problem: Decline in productivity due to poor climate-risk preparedness of rice farmers to weather/climate-induced events. Good seeds: 0.5 mt/ha (El Nino) vs. 3.0 mt/ha (Netural)/a Decline in yield by 22% (strong El Nino), 6% (moderate), and 0.2% (weak)/b Proposed adaptation options: localized weather and climate forecast Improved water management/ conservation practices 14 municipalities and 1 city /a PAO-Oriental Mindoro, 2017 /b Delos Reyes and David, 2009

PROJECT BACKGROUND Localized weather and climate forecast 10-day forecast Extreme event warning Seasonal forecast (3 month lead time) Risks management advice One board for each barangay/ farmer cluster i.e. different forecast per barangay based on historical records of forecast Improved water management/ conservation practices Solar water pumps, improved lining of canal for irrigation (lowland) Improved water impounding based on hydrological assessment (upland and rainfed)

OBJECTIVES   GENERAL OBJECTIVE: To determine the economic benefits of adopting a local weather and seasonal forecast and water conservation and management practices of rice farmers    SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES: To establish the baseline scenario of rice production in Oriental Mindoro To estimate the economic costs of the changes in productivity due to extreme weather events To estimate the economic costs and benefits of using local weather and seasonal forecasts and water management practices

METHODOLOGY Adaptation Options Output Outcome Localized weather forecast Improved decision-making Better allocation of resources Improved timing of activities Climate change resilient and climate smart rice production Decreases in losses in production Improved water management / conservation Address fluctuations in water availability Estimate incremental cost/ savings Estimate incremental benefits

METHODOLOGY Decrease in losses in production

METHODOLOGY COST BENEFITS ANALYSIS Establish baseline scenario for rice production Identify and estimate changes in yield of rice due to El Nino-induced drought, shifting in the onset of rainfall and excessive rainfall. Identify and estimate changes in yield due to the use of localized weather and seasonal climate forecast and water management practices Identify and estimate the costs associated with the adoption of adaptation options Conduct sensitivity analysis, i.e. determine trigger values e.g. change in yield that will result in zero net benefits COST BENEFITS ANALYSIS Establish baseline scenario for rice production Identify and estimate changes in yield of rice due to El Nino-induced drought, shifting in the onset of rainfall and excessive rainfall. Identify and estimate changes in yield due to the use of localized weather and seasonal climate forecast and water management practices under different climate change scenarios Identify and estimate the costs associated with the adoption of adaptation options Conduct sensitivity analysis, i.e. determine trigger values e.g. change in yield that will result in zero net benefits

DATA REQUIRED Volume of production (mt) Area of production (ha)   DATA NEEDS DATA SOURCE METHOD OF COLLECTION Baseline Scenario Volume of production (mt) Area of production (ha) Number of farmers and type of farming system (irrigated, rainfed, lowland, upland) Type of existing water source and associated costs per season/ year and per climate events (el nino-induced drought) (irrigation, pump, reservoir, impounding, etc.) Damage to crops and post-harvest losses due to El Nino-induced drought Cost of missing the optimal time of planting Cost of / damage functions in terms of loss of production due to excessive rainfall Provincial Agricultural Office Municipal Agricultural Office City Agricultural Office Philippine Statistics Authority Farmers Literature review Key informant interviews Secondary data collection Focus group discussions Survey (cost of missing the optimal time of planting, damages to crops and post-harvest losses due to el Nino-induced droughts and excessive rainfalls) Weather Data Basic weather data (precipitation, min and max temperature, etc.) for Oriental Mindoro (1954 or earlier) Number and intensity of El Nino and La Nina Episodes since 1954 PAGASA (Weather Bureau) DATA REQUIRED

  DATA NEEDS DATA SOURCE METHOD OF COLLECTION Weather Data Basic weather data (precipitation, min and max temperature, etc.) for Oriental Mindoro (1954 or earlier) Number and intensity of El Nino and La Nina Episodes since 1954 PAGASA (Weather Bureau) Key informant interviews Secondary data collection Focus group discussions Assumptions of alternative scenarios, e.g. adoption of localized weather and climate forecast and water management practices (Assumptions on the) Reduction in the damages to crops due to of local weather / seasonal forecast and appropriate water conservation/ management practices such as communal irrigation and lining of canal, shallow tube well, and solar water pumps (lowland), water impounding facilities (upland and rainfed). (Assumptions on the) Reduction in post-harvest losses due to the use of the adaptation practices mentioned above Costs associated with putting up a localized weather and climate forecast Costs associated with establishing/ improving communal irrigation and other water management and conservation practices. Provincial Agricultural Office Municipal Agricultural Office City Agricultural Office Farmers Literature review Survey DATA REQUIRED

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