1. Bangkok, ECCA Training, September 1, 2017
Empowered Lives. Resilient Nations.
AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE INDUCED FLOODS IN KOSHI BASIN OF TERAI NEPAL
Parashu Ram Adhikari, Dhanej Thapa, Kheema Subedi, Basanta Paudel NEPAL
Bangkok, ECCA Training, September 1, 2017

2. PROJECT BACKGROUND
Climate vulnerable country, High dependence on environmental resources
Erratic nature of the monsoon rainfall pattern and climate extreme events , increased mean annual precipitation; with decreased of rainy days with increased number of high-intensity rainfall events.
Flood incidence increased in Nepalese context
Floods in Koshi:
Koshi river basin, which carries highest siltation among Nepali river, damaging million of hectare of arable land.

3. OBJECTIVES Objectives
The overall objective is to assess climate induced flood risk and evaluate adaptations options suitable for agriculture resilience in Koshi basin of Terai Nepal.
Specific Objectives
To estimate physical impacts of climate induced flood risk in Koshi river basin area of Terai Nepal;
To calculate economic cost of floods in agriculture production;
To identify and compare economic cost and benefit of different adaptation options; and
To rank different flood adaptation options based on obtained NPV.

4. METHODOLOGY Deductive and Inductive Approach,
Use of Flood and Crop yield simulation Studies
GIS based mapping for area decline with floods in different years
Different Scenario Analysis
With flood hazards without CC and increased floods hazards in CC context.
Flood model/hydrological models
Precipitation: Seasonal variability, inter-annual variation, Recurrence of floods and intensity and frequency
Past extreme events, its increased intensity, frequency and recurrence in recent years.
Satellite images captured in different in flood years

5. METHODOLOGY
With flood hazards without CC and increased floods hazards in CC context.
Flood model/hydrological models
Precipitation: Seasonal variability, inter-annual variation, Recurrence of floods and intensity and frequency
Past extreme events, its increased intensity, frequency and recurrence in recent years.
Satellite images captured in different in flood years
Losses in agriculture production with flood hazards and with increased flood hazards due climate change.
Land loss
Production decline, farming system, Agriculture productivity, production trend,
Recardian model for impact on agriculture production(decline of net revenue)

6. METHODOLOGY
Losses in agriculture production with flood hazards and with increased flood hazards due climate change.
Land loss
Production decline, farming system, Agriculture productivity, production trend,
Recardian model for impact on agriculture production(decline of net revenue)
Cost of and Benefit of Adaptation options.
Cost of agriculture Adaptation; Submergence-tolerant rice varieties and river-belt farming (with floods)
Flood protection: Riperian Plantation(without floods

7. DATA REQUIRED Type of Data Collection method Source of Data Collection
Precipitation
GCM, RCM and Downscaled data
DHM,
Floods, extreme events, intensity, frequency, recurrence
GIS images, flood mode,FGDs and KII
DWIDC
Agriculture Land loss
Observation/
Field Survey
Crop loss
Productivity decline method
District Agriculture Development Office(DADO)
Cost of Riparian plantation
Cost of treatment
District Forest Office,
Cost of CSA; Submergence rice varieties and river-belt farming
Production cost obtained from DADO.
Benefit of Adaptation with floods and without floods
Productivity method

8. Analysis Options Costs Benefits Do Nothing
Evaluation of adaptation cost and benefit of flood management
Analysis
Options
Costs
Benefits
Do Nothing
Losses of crop production fallow of land. Losses of household income.
The forgone cost river bank plantation Or
For gone cost of use of submergence rice varieties
Forgone cost of river-belt farming
Introduction of submergence rice varieties and river belt farming
Capital cost of crop varieties, input materials
Higher production and Income
Implementation of participatory river plantation
Capital cost of bamboo, plants, land sloping,
Recreation value, high land value, better production and income.

9. THANK YOU
Q&A