Workshop to develop theories of change Theory of Change Workshop to develop theories of change

Opening Introductions, opening, devotions, formalities, etc.

Program (to be elaborated) Introduction elements ToC development + elaboration Presentations and Discussions

Objectives (specify) Develop and elaborate theories of change for the xxx programs, so that they can be used as a basis for program development, implementation, reflection, measuring progress, communication and attracting funds Be sure to ask participants their own objectives first.

Theory of Change Logic planning models Evaluation History Theory-based evaluation 1995, Caroll Weiss “a theory of how and why an initiative works” 1970s; mostly logical framework

History DfID first, now most major donors and organizations

Definitions of ToC Let participants read and buzz in 2’s or 3’s which is the best definition. Let 2 or 3 people defend their choice. No need for final choice. The essential elements of ToC are more important.

Different uses Explanation of what mechanism, interacting with which factors and actors lead to which changes. Causal story. Rough visual representation outlining major building blocks of a programme. Overview story. Narrative story about what is driving an organisation in its work. Principles story. Only use this slide if there is confusion with other types of theories of change.

Practical use Requirement to get SPP approved Logical basis for program Basis for monitoring results Basis for reflecting on what happens during implementation: Why does it (not) work? Which assumptions were wrong? Basis for changing strategies during implementation (e.g. moving ‘higher up’) Mental map to orient ‘where you are’ Tool for communication what is done why

Essentials Change Causality Context Actors Assumptions

Essentials Change Causality Context Actors Assumptions Worldview

Optionals Detailed mechanisms Details about strategies and activities Grouping actors or naming them Linkage to evidence Linkage to M&E framework (Can also be done at a later stage, or in separate document)

Assumption types Assumptions about operations ‘the training is sufficiently relevant that people will turn up without being paid’ Assumptions about causal links ‘training leads to more knowledge about effects of early marriage, which leads to less early marriages’ Assumptions about belief systems ‘men rather than women should be leaders’ Assumptions about actions of other actors ‘agricultural extension officers provide training as specified’ Assumptions about external context ‘the demand for carpenters will remain stable during the project’

Not very serious consequences Very serious consequences Assumption filtering Most risky: Not very serious consequences Very serious consequences Likely to be valid Nothing to worry Mitigate consequences Likely to be invalid Reduce risk Rethink design

Causality “The relation between mosquitos and mosquito bites” Often: contributory cause “Is the intervention a necessary element of a package that is sufficient to bring change?” Arrows in ToC: (contributory) causal relation (exceptions: consecutive relations “and then”)

Product assumptions about What should (ideally) be developed at the end of the workshop? Visual diagram Narrative that includes Change Causal Pathways Interacting context factors Interactions other actors Other assumptions assumptions about

Instruction steps Long term outcome Outcome pathways Link to interventions Actors and Context interactions Further assumptions Narrative and refined visualisation All steps: Use what is already there. We acknowledge that you do not start from zero.

1. Long term outcome Write a statement with the long term outcome How does it look like when this program reaches its objectives fully? What has changed and for whom? How can this be seen? (close your eyes and see it) Write this in a statement as concretely as possible With small epitaph: How should people remember your program after it has left the earth?

2. Outcome pathways Develop outcome pathways Start with the long term outcome What changes are needed to achieve this? Conditions, institutions, relationships, capabilities, attitudes, behaviours Concrete changes: what change, for whom, by whom

Outcome pathways cont’d List all preconditions and write on cards Connect as causal pathways Repeat these steps as far as needed Draw the causal path schematically Simplify where needed

3. Link to interventions Link the outcome pathway to the interventions (main groups of activities) of the program. Either at the bottom Or at any point along the outcome pathway where they happen Check if all major activities are included If not: are they needed? Or did you miss out an outcome pathway? Interventions, strategies, (groups of) activities: all these words can be used.

4. Add actors and context Go critically through your outcome pathways and indicate (using colours) Which actors also influence these changes, and how? Which other factors are influences on changes or conditions that are needed for these changes? How do you interact with these actors and factors?

5. Assumptions Which causal relations (arrows) are the biggest assumptions? What are the main assumptions about actors and contextual factors? Are there any other assumptions that underpin the program? Filter the most important assumptions: any change or strategy needed? In the theory section there are 2 more slides about assumptions and the risk analysis

6. Narrative and Refine Which visuals do you want to have? Narrative For whom? Simple and complex versions? Overview and detailed diagram? Narrative Add contextual information and reasons for choices made Write out the causal relations Focus on what raises most questions in the diagram Include things that are not visualised (e.g. some actors, context factors, assumptions)

And then… ToC is ready… what next? Who else needs to be taken along in the process? How do you know if “theory” is also practice?  Monitoring – use ToC as basis for M&E Use ToC as basis for reflection in staff meetings Usually need for adaptation And elaboration Basis for shifting focus in strategies Reminder that it is not the product that counts, but the reflective way of thinking! Consider discussing concrete actions: when and where will ToC be (re-)discussed?

Presentations To director(s), Board, other stakeholders Also think about tasks remaining in case the ToCs are not yet sufficiently elaborated.