1. 4.1 Selecting Project Purposes and Outcomes

2. The TOC Process Data collection and analysis (identify problems)
Use causal analysis to create a problem tree
Create a solution tree and identify pathways of change
Identify assumptions and articulate rationales
Prioritize outcomes the project will address
Clearly outline who will address other outcomes
Identify intervention outputs
Transfer the TOC to the logframe
Identify indicators for TOC components
Complete complementary documentation
Review annually at minimum
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3. Which domains of change should we address?
Criteria:
Addressing the domain responds to donor interest and the opportunity for resources
Addressing the domain fills a gap. Other agencies are not currently focused on this domain
Addressing the domain will maximize your organization’s comparative advantage
The domain has high synergy with other domains
Addressing the domain and pathways of change has potential for partnering
In FFP-funded Activities, the domains of change that the DFSA agrees to address become Purposes. Those the DFSA does not address, remain in the TOC diagram, but are not referred to as Purposes.  

4. Which outcomes should we address?
An organization may elect to address a DoC, but may NOT address all the outcomes within that domain’s pathway.
E.g., existing FtF efforts to improve market access.
Risk of not directly addressing an outcome is that you must rely on effectiveness of external actor efforts.
You are making an assumption that efforts will be effective!
In these cases, monitoring the progress of external actors is especially critical.
Sometimes a project will address all domains of change in a TOC, but will not directly address all the outcomes in the domain’s pathway. This typically happens because an external actor is already attempting to address the outcome.
The risk of not directly addressing every outcome in a pathway is that you must rely on the effectiveness of external actor efforts to achieve the domain of change/Purpose. Monitoring other actors’ progress on the outcome becomes especially critical, which is manageable through effective communication and coordination.

5. Which outcomes should we address?
After identifying domains of change that the project will address, start at the bottom of each pathway and identify all outcomes in each pathway that the project will address.
Same Criteria:
Addressing the outcome responses to donor interest.
Addressing the outcome fills a gap. Other actors are not currently focused on this outcome.
Addressing the outcome will maximize your organization’s comparative advantage
The outcome has high synergy with other outcomes
Addressing the outcome has potential for partnering

6. Which outcomes should we address?
Why start at the bottom?
Your decisions about outcomes in the lower tiers of the TOC will influence whether your organization takes responsibility for outcomes in the upper tiers.
This slide demonstrates the selection process via a series of clicks.
First, point out that the domain of change “Gender equitable diverse income increased” now includes the label Purpose 1, to reflect that the organization plans to address it. Similarly, the linkage to “Increased adoption optimal MCHN practices” now has a label P2, to reflect another Purpose the organization plans to address.
Next move through the series of clicks, simulating the process of selecting project outcomes.
Click 1: An NGO decides it will address “Improved gender equitable access to entrepreneurial and technical training.”
Click 2: The NGO does not need to make a decision about whether to address “improved entrepreneurial literacy” or “Improved technical skills for alternative livelihoods” because the logic demonstrates that “Improved gender equitable access to entrepreneurial and technical training” is the only precondition for these two outcomes. If they achieve improved access to training, they expect to see achievement in literacy and skills. Thus, the NGO selects both as project outcomes.
Click 3 & 4: The same is true for “Reduced rate of business failure” and “Men and women are willing to take risk”. The TOC logic states that both outcomes will be achieved if the preconditions are achieved. No discussion is necessary about whether or not to take responsibility for these two outcomes, the NGO claims them.
Click 5: We must now move back to the bottom of the pathway now and make a decision about “strengthened linkages to the private sector”. In this example, the NGO decides to address this outcome.
EXTERNAL ACTOR: Point out that the NGO determines that an external actor will be responsible for improving access to credit, as designated by the new yellow shape.
Now that responsibility for all preconditions leading to “increased adoption of alternative livelihoods” has been determined, we can move up to that outcome. The NGO must make a decision about whether to take responsibility for this outcome, even though the project will not be addressing all necessary preconditions (e.g., access to credit). This is a case-by-case decision and will depend on how much change the NGO expects to catalyze via achieving three of the four preconditions ( (increasing willingness to take risk, improving technical skills, and strengthening linkages to the private sector) AND how confident they are that Actor XYZ will achieve “improved access to formal and informal credit”.

7. External actor outcomes and outputs
Use a distinct shape and/ or color
Make sure that the outcomes and outputs produced by external actors are clearly distinguishable from those that the project will aim to achieve. Select a different shape, color, border or text to make these components stand out.

8. Sample External Actor Matrix for Complementary Documentation
FFP requests that the TOC Complementary Documentation clearly identify actors outside the activity who are intervening or will intervene to produce outcomes and outputs that are preconditions in a TOC pathway. The Complementary Documentation should also provide information about the scale of external actor intervention relative to the Activity’s coverage, a sense of the likelihood that the preconditions will be achieved by the time they are necessary to stimulate change in the pathway, and risks to the Activity if they are not. Finally, the complementary documentation should describe the activity’s level of collaboration with each actor, how that collaboration will better ensure the preconditions, and how the externally-produced outputs and outcomes will be monitored.

9. Small Group Activity

10. Small Group Activity 4.1
Using the criteria discussed, select the outcomes that your project will address
Use the mock stakeholders’ mapping matrix to determine where there are gaps to fill.
The expertise at your table will determine your group’s comparative advantage.
Start at the bottom of the diagram.
On the flipchart, provide a brief explanation of how the criteria resulted in the selection of various outcomes / domains.

11. Small Group Activity 4.1
FFP implementers: change the labeling of the selected domains to Purposes and number them accordingly.
Change the shape/color of outcomes that will be addressed by external actors in your TOC diagram. If room, specify the actor in the outcome statement.
Document key implications for the TOC success if external actors do not progress on an outcome as anticipated.
Fill out the External Actor matrix in the Complementary Documentation for at least one actor.

12. Small Group Activity 4.1
Two groups will be selected to present for minutes. Presentations should include a brief discussion of:
the process you used to prioritize the domains of change/ outcomes your project will address
challenges that surfaced and how the group dealt with them
anticipated challenges and solutions related to tracking progress for outcomes addressed by external actors.

13. Small Group Activity 4.1 Gallery Walk 15 minutes
2 group members remain with the TOC diagram to answer questions.