1. Theory of Change
1.1 Overview

2. What is a Theory of Change?
A hypothesized series of changes that are expected to occur in a given context as the result of specific integrated actions.
Ask participants for their interpretations before clicking forward.

3. What is a Theory of Change?
a product –
Conceptual diagram / metrics/ complementary documentation
a process of articulating the way we think about a current problem, its root causes, the long-term change we seek, and what needs to happen in order for that change to come about.
Continual reflection on whether, how, why change is occurring
Modifying the “product” if necessary
A conceptual diagram explicitly displays the long-term goal, domains of change, incremental outcomes, assumptions, rationales, and outputs, and shows the pathways that lead to the desired change.
Metrics for each component of the TOC tell us how success will be recognized at each step. For FFP Activities, the metrics are shared in the logframe, not in the TOC.
TOC complementary documentation- communicates information not easily interpreted from the TOC conceptual graphic

4. Why do we need a Theory of Change?
To build a common understanding around the process needed to achieve a desired change.
To provide a detailed map showing pathways of change that:
is based on a clear and testable set of hypotheses.
makes explicit how interventions will interact within the context
To identify critical areas addressed by external actors and how the project will link to them.
Ask participants for their ideas before clicking forward.

5. The TOC Process

6. The TOC Process Comprehensive data collection and analysis
Use causal analysis to create a problem tree
Create a solution tree and identify pathways of change
Identify assumptions and articulate rationales
Prioritize outcomes the project will address
Identify intervention outputs
Transfer the TOC to the logframe
Identify indicators for TOC components
Complete complementary documentation
Review annually at minimum
This slide outlines each step of the process. Details on each step are provided in subsequent slides.
Stress the need to constantly revisit steps as you gain more information.
Text shaded grey indicates a step not carried out in this workshop.

7. 1. Comprehensive Data Collection and Analysis
Your evolving evidence base !
Information that supports:
Your claim a problem exists
Opportunities/ capacities that will support underlying assumptions
Causal links between outcomes.
What kind of data?
Quantitative and qualitative
Government research
Donor research
Program-specific
Academic
Community–based research
What is key to a robust evidence base?
Balance between qualitative and quantitative data
Diversity of relevant sources
Reliability of sources
A strong evidence-based problem analysis sets the TOC process apart from other processes.
Comprehensive data collection and analysis allow you to identify context-specific problems, rather than simply relying on generic analyses of the problems of the poor.
It provides evidence to support the underlying assumptions and the links between interventions and outcomes.

8. 1. Comprehensive Data Collection and Analysis
(session 1.2)
Key to effective and efficient data collection / analysis
Use a conceptual framework to help determine what to collect and to sort data
Consistently track what you don’t know – identify evidence data gaps
Conceptual frameworks are useful as organizing devices to plan data collection and guide data analysis.
They help to ensure we are collecting the right kind of information that will allow us to carry out a rigorous and thorough causal analysis. They help us identify evidence gaps, or in other words, to understand what we know and what we do not yet know.
Ongoing data collection and analysis helps you fill data gaps so that you can more accurately determine the causal links between problems.

9. 1. Comprehensive Data Collection and Analysis
Stakeholder Mapping and Analysis
Helps build evidence base for assumptions
Identifies conditions and resources already in place that are necessary to achieve outcomes
Helps team begin to prioritize problems for project focus
Who is doing what, where?
How successful is it?
What are the gaps?
Is ongoing throughout the development of the TOC and the life of the project.
A key component of comprehensive analysis for any project design is a stakeholders’ analysis.
This exercise becomes even more important in the TOC process as TOCs are not limited to the work of one organization or consortium.
Stakeholder analyses should be ongoing through the life of the project to understand shifts in the relative interests and influences of various stakeholders.

10. 2. Causal Analysis / Problem Tree
Map Causal Streams
What are the main causes of the overarching problem?
In what sequence are problems connected to one another?
Highlight evidence gaps in the causal logic.
The process of mapping causal streams allows us to construct a problem tree—a diagram that shows how problematic conditions are linked.
Explain the 4 types of problems. You will quiz participants in the next slide, so it is important to define them clearly.
Overarching problem: The most significant problem facing a defined population
Key problems: Broad conditions that affect people in a negative way
Underlying/root causes: Major causes of key problems that are often the effects of other causes and must be identified during the synthesis stage of design. Underlying causes come in myriad forms: practices and behaviors, knowledge and skill levels, beliefs, attitudes, and systemic conditions. It is critical to think about all of them during causal analysis.
Contextual conditions: General social, political, environmental, and climatic conditions that contribute to underlying causes and, at times, result from the key problems
The key problems form the top of the problem tree, the underlying/root causes form the middle of the tree, and contextual conditions will generally feed in from the bottom.
Include contextual conditions that affect all underlying causes. Example: climate change; political instability; etc.

11. 2. Causal Analysis / Problem Tree
Identify 4 Levels of Problems
Overarching problem
Key problems
Underlying/ root causes
Contextual conditions
The most significant problem facing a defined population.
broad conditions that affect people in a negative way (e.g., poor health, inadequate income, low capacity to prepare for and respond to shocks and stressors).
conditions that contribute to key problems. Often the effects of other causes.
Ask participants to define each before clicking forward.
General social, political, environmental, climatic conditions that contribute to underlying causes

12. 2. Causal Analysis / Problem Tree
Drill down on underlying/root causes
practices and behavior (e.g., low adoption of improved agricultural practices)
knowledge levels, beliefs, attitudes that influence practices and behavior (e.g. food taboos for pregnant women)
systemic conditions (e.g., limited access to improved water supply) that influence both knowledge and behavior
Underlying causes come in myriad forms: practices and behaviors, knowledge and skill levels, beliefs, attitudes, and systemic conditions (capacity, policy, infrastructure, etc.). It is critical to think about all of them during causal analysis.

13. Sample Excerpt from Problem Tree
Determining the causal linkages between problems allows us to organize these conditions into a problem tree, where we can begin to see a hierarchical cause-and-effect flow and cross-causal linkages. A problem tree is a crucial preliminary step for identifying domains of change and TOC pathways.

14. 3. Solution Tree Restate all problems in terms of desired change
State as “condition resolved”, not as actions
Do not use of “through”, “by”, “so that”, “via” etc.
Problem trees  solution trees
Overarching problem statement  project goal
Key problems  domains of change (purposes)
Underlying causes  solutions (incremental outcomes)
The next step is to restate all problem statements in terms of desired change.
We want to make sure we phrase the solutions as if they are already achieved (e.g., Populations in X District are Food Secure...), rather than in the future tense (e.g., Household food security will increase).

15. Sample Solution Tree
A common mistake at this point of the process is to flip only the problems that an organization believes it can address. It is very important to flip every single problem in the problem tree into a solution. We want to keep a comprehensive lens on all solutions that are necessary to achieve the stated goal, whether or not our project intends to address them.

16. 3. Pathways of Change
Identify domains of change (Purposes, Strategic Objectives, key leverage points)
main areas where change must occur
Map a pathway of change or “pathway”
sequence in which outcomes are expected to occur in order to accomplish the domain of change and ultimately reach the stated goal.
outcomes on lower levels are preconditions for outcomes at the next higher level.
We map pathways of change by starting with a domain of change and tracing all the step-by-step solutions that lead to it. FFP uses the term “outcomes” to refer to the step-by-step solutions that make up pathways.
Mapping pathways often results in identifying linkages across domains (depicted in the pink oval in the diagram in the previous slide). These cross-sectoral linkages are a key strength of TOCs compared to results frameworks or other linear logistical frameworks.

17. 4. Identify assumptions and articulate rationales
Session 3.2
Rationales: the underlying logic and evidence that support the plausibility of a pathway linkage
Assumptions: Conditions that are important to the success of a TOC, but are beyond its control
There is a wide range of interpretation about what constitutes an assumption in a TOC. Because this course is primarily designed for implementers of FFP DFSAs, we use FFP’s definition.
Assumptions are conditions that are beyond the control of the program, but will likely affect the success of reaching various outcomes, and could affect the overall success of the TOC. They are conditions that are already in place--those that you do not expect to change during the life of the program.
Rationales differ from assumptions in that they are not conditions that are in place, but rather evidence or explanations that show why the causal logic in a TOC is plausible. In the example, evidence demonstrating that when communities witness a lower rate of business failure within the specific operating context, men and women are more willing to take risk.

18. 5. Prioritize outcomes/domains of change that the project will address
Identify individual outcomes or entire domains of change that are outside the project’s scope
Identify outcomes already being addressed by external actors
Consider your institutional comparative advantage
Stakeholder review
Invite key stakeholders to vet the TOC
Identify outcomes where new partners will be necessary
Because a TOC depicts a broad view of what needs to change in a given context in order to reach the overarching goal, pathways and domains of change should not be limited to the changes that one organization can stimulate. We need to constantly think about other actors (public, private, local, national, international, etc.) that are already contributing to achieving an overarching goal, or who might be persuaded to contribute to the overarching goal.
Sometimes this means that other actors will address an entire domain of change pathway; more often it means that other actors will be responsible for achieving several outcomes along a pathway of change.

19. 6. Identify intervention outputs for TOC outcomes
Session 4.2
The next step is to think about the best interventions that will help us to start the wheels of change in motion.
We don’t need to have an intervention output for every single pathway outcome. By starting at the tail, or bottom, of each pathway we can identify lower-level outcomes or “actionable outcomes”, where an output is necessary to catalyze change. When lower level outcomes are achieved, the TOC hypothesizes that those achievements should be sufficient preconditions to stimulate change at the next level. Thus, in most cases, additional outputs are unnecessary for the mid- and upper tier outcomes.

20. 6. Identify intervention outputs for TOC outcomes
Session 4.2
Select appropriate responses based on
a clear and logical link to at least one TOC outcome.
opportunity analysis –what capacities are in place?
evidence-base – what is proven to work in the given context
a thorough analysis of assumptions and risks
the comparative advantage of your organization/ consortium
the interest and influence of relevant stakeholders
Practitioners often want to carry out every possible activity that could be of some help to people.
The reality is that budget, staffing, and time constraints do not allow for doing everything and doing it effectively.
This stage of the process also helps us to prioritize interventions.
By using specific criteria, we can determine which interventions are necessary and sufficient to achieve TOC outcomes.
This will contribute to more efficient and effective programming.
In session 4.2, we will:
explain how to identify “entry point” outcomes for intervention.
discuss criteria for selecting the most appropriate interventions.
demonstrate how to insert intervention outputs in the TOC diagram.

21. Refine the TOC Use distinct colors and shapes and make a key
Session 4.3 Refine the TOC.
In the final stages of the TOC process, we need to put effort into making the TOC diagram easily readable for those who have not been as close to the process. Use distinct colors, shapes, borders, text, and other graphic elements to differentiate TOC components.

22. 7. Transfer TOC to Logframe
If you are developing the TOC for a FFP-funded DFSA, you will need to transfer it to your monitoring and evaluation logframe.
This is the last step in the TOC process that we will carry out in this workshop.
This slide displays USAID’s Office of FFP guidance on the relationship between the TOC and the logframe.
Source: USAID 2016

23. 8. Identify indicators
Indicators tell us how we will recognize achievement at each step in a pathway.
Can be quantitative or qualitative
At least one indicator must be defined for every TOC component transferred to the logframe.
Impact indicators – purpose-level and goal outcomes
Outcome indicators – sub-purpose/intermediate outcomes/ lower-level outcomes
Output indicators – outputs/activities
Risk indicators – outputs /activities

24. 9. Complementary documentation/ TOC Narrative
Complementary documentation allows you to:
communicate information that is not easily interpreted from the TOC conceptual graphic
share references to evidence that supports causal logic
identify external actors who are responsible for producing outcomes in the TOC
Explain and provide supporting evidence for assumptions and rationales
Note: As of 4/2019, FFP was still using the term TOC narrative, but this term will soon be replaced by Complementary Documentation.

25. 10. Review annually, at minimum
Conduct a thorough review of the TOC annually through the life of an activity.
The structure of the TOC review will differ depending on the year of the review.
Purpose:
consider what has been learned;
what has changed, including the context;
consider new evidence since the previous review.

26. The TOC Product

27. The TOC Product
Conceptual diagram - explicitly displays the long-term goal, domains of change, incremental outcomes, assumptions, rationales, and outputs and shows the pathways that lead to the desired change. Metrics (indicators or other measures) for each component of the TOC - tell us how we will recognize achievement at each step in the pathway. Complementary documentation- communicates information not easily interpreted from the TOC diagram.

28. FFP Theory of Change Conceptual Model
A TOC conceptual graphic articulates the goal, domains of change, outcomes, assumptions, rationales, and key outputs, and shows clear pathways of change;

29. How do we know if the TOC is adequate?
A complete TOC diagram provides:
A communication tool to gain agreement among stakeholders about what defines success, what it takes to achieve it, and who will do what.
An outline of how interventions should be sequenced.
A monitoring and learning tool to understand what factors may be impeding expected change.
A blueprint for evaluation that identifies metrics of success.
A visual representation of the expected change and how it will occur based on a clear and testable set of hypotheses.
When the diagram is plausible, feasible, and testable it generally can be considered adequate.
Plausible: It is evidence-based, can be explained logically, and demonstrates a clear flow from the interventions that will spark change to the long-term goal.
Feasible: It identifies realistic means of initiating change (responsibilities of various stakeholders and intervention outputs).
Testable: It clearly outlines how change will be measured each step of the way.
Remember, a unique aspect of a TOC is that it can and should be modified –as we learn more about the operational context and conduct formative research during project implementation, there will be room for further improvement.
PLAUSIBLE
FEASIBLE
TESTABLE

30. TOC checklist
A tool for determining quality and completeness of TOCs for FFP DFSAs
In 2017, The TOPS Program and FFP collaborated to develop the TOC Checklist, a tool that allows TOC developers and reviewers to ascertain the quality and thoroughness of the diagrams and narrative. The checklist is a summary of FFP criteria outlined in document “USAID’S Office of Food for Peace Policy and Guidance for Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting for Development Food Security Activities”, and explained in detail in the TOPS TOC training materials. You can access the checklist in English and French at

31. Key Differences: Results Frameworks and TOC
TOC is developed using:
Backwards mapping
Rigorous causal analysis supported by evidence base
Rigorous attention to underlying assumptions
TOC not limited to those changes that we will directly address through programming
Identifies external efforts
TOC helps to prioritize optimal sequencing of interventions
There seems to be a lot of confusion about the difference between a TOC and a results framework. Some people claim that they are one in the same. In this course, we argue that results frameworks, at least to the extent that they have been designed and used within the development community for the past decade or so, are very different from TOCs

32. Key Differences: Results Frameworks and TOC
A TOC CAN and SHOULD BE REVISED REGULARLY !