Mainstreaming the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: A Canadian perspective Aerin Jacob Liber Ero Fellow University of Victoria @Aerin_J #CECMerida Photo: Pacific Wild

What do you think of when you imagine Canada What do you think of when you imagine Canada? Maybe that we like hockey or that we say sorry and eh? But I bet you also thought about snow, forests, lakes, and oceans – they seem to go on for ever, filled with wildlife. And we do have that! But as a northern country, Canada’s environment and peopleare also very affected by climate change.

Mountain pine beetle - Affected 20% of BC’s land area - Killed 53% commercial lodgepole pine - Projected economic impact = $57B (2009-54) For instance, many of our forets have been affected by insect outbreaks, like the mountain pine beetle in western Canada, where I live. Although mountain pine beetle is native to western North America, starting about 15 year ago the outbreaks skyrocketed. The beetles kill pine trees, increasing susceptibility to fire, and affecting water temperature and flow patterns, and soil erosion. Multiple factors have come together to make it more suitable for mountain pine beetles. Decades of fire suppression mean that there are older trees, which the beetles like, and they are in even-aged stands – so when one tree is affected, it’s likely that its neighbours will be too. Before, winters below -40 degrees helped regulate beetle numbers. Now, warm, dry summers, mild winters, and earlier start of spring mean that more beetles survive. Corbett et al. (2015) Forestry Dezene Huber

Ocean acidification Wild species in BC Farmed species in BC Climate change has affects in the ocean, too. For instance, ocean acidification is affecting both wild and farmed species. Here, species groups are arranged vertically by trophic level. Areas of circles are proportional to the landed values in 2011. Squares represent species groups that are not commercially harvested. Solid colours represent the likely direct effects of ocean acidification to possible effects. Haigh et al. (2015) PLOS ONE Jeremy Koreski

(Some) Species are moving north A changing climate forces plants and animals to migrate in order to survive. To make matters worse, human settlements and infrastructure have already subdivided ecosystem habitat into isolated patches.  Dan Majka/TNC 2016 & Jean Polfus

GOAL VISION: Habitat connected from Yellowstone to Yukon WHY: Critical for species with big ranges; even more so under climate change Peter Mather

Extinction risk rises with temperature Business-as-usual (+4.3 °C) = 16% extinction, or 1 in 6 species Paris 2015 (<2 °C) = 5% extinction Recent meta-analysis of studies estimating global extinction risk: each dot is one study that estimated the number of species we might lose with different global temperature increases. Our current situation is in the green line: 0.8C change predicted to mean 3% loss of species. The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement seeks to limit warming to less than 2 degrees, which corresponds to 5% of species going extinct. But we are on track for business-as-usual, more than 4 degree change in temperature and losing 16% of species (that’s 1 in 6). Endemic species, and those with small ranges or limited mobility, face even greater extinction risk. And many species will be affected by climate change but not go extinct. Urban (2015) Science

Progress comes from sticking your neck out Be bold Be creative Be strategic

Governments around the world have recognized the practical and moral reasons to act. At the Paris Climate Summit, signed last December, countries agreed to drastically cut GHG emissions and to try to limit global warming to 2 degrees by the end of the century.

Over the last couple of years, I’ve been involved in a really exciting project: an amazing network of scholars from coast-to-coast called the Sustainable Canada Dialogues. We created a roadmap for Canada to transition to a low-carbon future. This map shows Canada’s tremendous potential for renewables, just based on wind and solar energy. It’s clear that we need to make that low-carbon transition ASAP. The decisions we make - including infrastructure and community planning - can improve human well-being. I ask that, we not forget biodiversity. Instead, we need to incorporate biodiversity conservation as fundamental to decision-making, alongside reducing emissions, economic gains, and community well-being. But that’s hard to do: how do you measure multiple values, and different scenarios for dev’t, at the same time?

Great Bear Rainforest & Great Bear Sea This is the kind of research that my colleagues and I do: conservation planning that simultaneously evaluates different social, economic, and environmental outcomes of development. We work in the Great Bear Rainforest and Great Bear Sea, in British Columbia. It’s one of the largest intact coastal temperate rainforest left on Earth. It is also the traditional territory of many First Nations who have lived here, and sustainably managed resources, for thousands of years.   Pacific Wild

“We’re looking at science in a new way “We’re looking at science in a new way. We take traditional ecological knowledge and local knowledge and merge that with the best available western science.” Douglas Neasloss Kitasoo/Xai’Xais Chief Councilor A critical component of our research is partnership with First Nations leaders and managers. They are looking for sustainable, profitable economic development in line with traditional practices and cultural values, and developing management that incorporates both traditional knowledge and western science. Douglas Neasloss

Land Synergies & trade-offs in conservation, shellfish aquaculture, ecotourism We use decision-support tools, which is part of our work, along with community engagement and scenario planning. For instance, the First Nations are considering developing shellfish aquaculture in some parts of their traditional territories – potential areas are shown here in red. But the ecological impacts, the economic gains, and interactions with other activities, like ecotourism to see wildlife, are different in these areas. So is the susceptibility to ocean acidification, which can dissolve the shells of shellfish -- some areas will be more resilient than others.

Land Synergies & trade-offs in conservation, shellfish aquaculture, ecotourism So we use a combination of computer modelling, expert interviews, and community engagement to understand what the impact and vulnerability of different parts of this region, both now and in the future with predicted climate change. This map shows areas of high impact in red, and low impact in blue. Once we identify areas with low environmental impact, and resilient to climate change, we look at the interactions with other activities, like ecotourism to look at grizzly bears. Guided by the Nations, we create different scenarios of development that they use to inform decision-making.

Our choices affect the world future generations will inherit. My generation grew up in a world with climate change and biodiversity loss. In closing, I want to note that my generation grew up in a world where climate change and biodiversity loss were the norm. That makes me deeply sad. And I know that the world my children and my grandchildren inherit will be different that the one that I know. We have choices to make, individually and collectively – we aren’t helpless in this. I ask our leaders to be brave and to make choices that put climate change and biodiversity at the heart of decision-making. Our choices affect the world future generations will inherit.

Thank you – Merci – Gracias