1. Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest
The Science of Global Warming:
Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest
Eric Salathé
Climate Impacts Group (JISAO/SMA) University of Washington

2. The Climate Impacts Group
Elements of the PNW we study:
Water resources
Salmon
Forests
Coasts
Goal: make the region more resilient to climate variations and climate change
Interdisciplinary research team at UW

3. Nature’s “Greenhouse Effect”

4. Is Our Climate Changing? The Pacific Northwest
113 stations with long records
Almost every station shows warming
Urbanization not a major source of warming
100-year Temperature Trends
warming cooling

5. 1,000 Years of Climate Change

6. 150 Years of Climate Change

7. Humans are altering the atmosphere
carbon dioxide concentration has increased by ~30% since 1750’s
from a very long term perspective, these changes are enormous

8. Whodunit? Human Climate Influence Natural Climate Influence
All Climate Influences

9. Will Warming Continue?

10. Future Climate Change
Climate is changing, and humans are at least partly responsible.
Earth’s average temperature will probably increase by °F (1-3.5°C) in the next 100 years.
Other climate changes are likely to accompany this warming (precipitation, storm tracks).
These changes will have both positive and negative consequences.

11. What Might Climate Change Look Like in the Northwest?
We looked at 7 scenarios of future climate from climate models
Averages of 7 scenarios, compared to 20th century:
2F warmer by 2020s
4F warmer by 2050s
Slightly wetter
Winters wetter
Summers ???

12. The Main Impact: Less Snow
April 1
Columbia
Basin
Snow
Extent

13. Impacts of Hydrologic Changes
Less snow, earlier melt means
More water in winter
Less water in summer
Flooding
Irrigation
Salmon
Hydropower
Municipal water
Natural Columbia River flow at the Dalles, OR.

14. Are We Prepared for a Changing Climate?
Natural resource management presently assumes
Climate does not change
As Ben Franklin put it…
The question is, are we...
But what if it does?

15. Becoming Climatewise Use climate information
Requires on-going dialogue between decision-makers, climate scientists, and the general public
Create centralized & adaptable management strategies
Learn from the past
1. The single most important thing that the region can do to prepare for climate change is to use climate information in our planning and decision-making processes.
-- increased awareness of how climate affects the region will enable decision makers to better manage the region’s natural resources as the climate changes
-- as scientists learn how climate forecasts are used, they can make more useful forecasts and provide more useful information on climate change
2. Management needs to be flexible/agile enough to operate differently under different climate conditions. Much water res mgt based on strict rule curves that define how managers must operate and don’t allow them to adapt to conditions that may vary from year-to-year. Following flood prevention rule curves was one of the reasons SPU experienced water shortages in 1992.
3. Climate variations such as El Nino/La Nina and the PDO have been with us throughout this century. By examining how well we dealt with these climate variations in the past, we can prepare for the future. When the SPU learned how EN had impacted them in the past, they used that knowledge and forecasts of EN to help them better prepare for the future.
*Applies to management of nat resources in general as the climate changes
* Now address specific ways to adapt to projected impacts of climate change on water, salmon...

16. Becoming Climatewise: Water, Salmon, Forests and Coasts
Water: increase supply, decrease demand, increase management flexibility
Salmon: promote biodiversity by increasing healthy and connected habitat
Forests: maintain a full range of biodiversity
Coasts: recognize role of climate variability and change in coastal issues (erosion & flooding)
WATER -- As Alan the major impact of cc on water resources is a decrease in summer sf. To cope with these decreases, and the increased conflicts over water that are likely to go along with them, we should examine ways to:...
SALMON -- resilience to environmental variations depends on the diversity of their population as a whole, which in turn depends on the availability of healthy and complex habitat in streams, estuaries, and the open ocean. THE MOST EFFECTIVE CLIMATE INSURANCE WE CAN PURCHASE FOR PACIFIC SALMON MAY BE TO …
FORESTS -- Managed forests tend to be monocultures. Its important to ….. in order to maintain flexibility under climate change and to decrease vulnerability to pest outbreaks
COASTS -- few coastal communities have considered the potential threat posed by climate change. However, long-term economic impacts may be dictated by planning decisions that are made now. Coastal planner must …… for example, coastal erosion and flooding all have a climate component. Policies on flood plain and coastal development need to recognize this.

17. Conclusions
Climate change likely to significantly affect the pacific northwest
Main impact: reduction in snowcap, summer streamflow
Will exacerbate existing stresses in many cases
Need to retool institutions and government agencies to respond to climate information and to plan for a changed climate
Consider climate a component of any long-term plan
CC: As Phil described, we know from the past that subtle variations in climate can have profound impacts on the region, and the changes projected by the climate models are anything but subtle.
IMPACTS: are likely to be felt among the natural resources of the region -- the water res….
RETOOL: At present, the region is ill-prepared to tackle a changing climate, but some improvements are being made. …… climate change will also bring some benefits, but we will be most likely to reap those benefits if we are prepared for them.
LONG-TERM: Think about some long-range plans and decisions that are currently being made: habitat conservation plans, salmon recovery plans, plans to ensure future water supply for cities and towns, dam relicensing, land use planning near shore and bluffs and in potential flood areas, and planting of trees for commercial timber. CV’s and CC have an important bearing on each of these decisions. We know enough already to begin the process of changing how we think about climate in the context of natural resources decisions.
It’s time to start.