1. How it happens and how it affects us.
Climate Change:
How it happens and how it affects us.

2. Outline What is climate? What makes the climate change?
How has climate changed in the past?
Human caused climate change: the greenhouse effect.
Have we changed the climate?
What will the future climate look like?
How will climate change affect people?

3. What is climate?

4. Climate is an average of weather (Temperature, Rainfall
Climate is an average of weather (Temperature, Rainfall...) over a “long” time (more than 2-3 weeks).
Weather and Climate in Seattle:
weather
climate (average min/max)

5. What makes climate change?
Changes in the sun
Changes in the earth's orbit
Changes in the clouds
Changes in ice sheets
Volcanic eruptions
Changes in the gases in the atmosphere (Greenhouse effect)
Internal Wiggles (for example El Nino)
Some cause bigger changes, some cause small changes
Some cause slower changes, some cause fast changes
Some cause changes that last, some cause changes that go away fast

6. How has climate changed in the past?
Ice Ages
Big swings in climate over 100,000 yrs
Occurred over last million years
Advance and retreat of ice sheets
We are in between ice ages right now
21 thousand years ago
Now

7. How has climate changed in the past?
Eocene Warm Period
50 million years ago
Palm trees in Puget Sound
Crocodiles in the Arctic

8. Human-Forced Climate Change
Climate changes can be natural or human caused.
Humans can affect
the climate by
changing the gases
in the atmosphere.
(greenhouse
effect).

9. The Greenhouse Effect
The greenhouse effect: certain “greenhouse” gases in the atmosphere permit sunlight to pass through the atmosphere, but absorb much of the infrared (heat) radiation from Earth’s surface. The atmosphere warms, and radiates additional heat to the surface. The planet’s temperature is therefore higher than it would be without greenhouse gases, and it stands to reason that adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is likely to warm the planet.

10. Human influence on climate: the greenhouse effect
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is a major greenhouse gas
Human burning of fossil fuels, and plants releases CO2

11. Have we changed the climate?
Changes in global temperature over the last 125 years

12. Have we changed the climate?
Changes in global temperature over the last 1,000 years
This figure, taken from the IPCC report, compares the instrumental record of northern hemisphere temperature (red) with temperature reconstructed using data from tree rings and other “proxy” data. Viewed in this context, the warming of the 20th century appears to be well outside the natural range of variability – indeed, the IPCC said that the 20th century warming is “likely [judged 66-90% chance of being true] to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years.”

13. Have we changed the climate?
Everywhere (almost) is warming!

14. Have we changed the climate?
Glaciers are retreating all over the world
The South Cascade glacier retreated dramatically in the 20th century
1928
These pictures show the South Cascade glacier in 1928 and The glacier has retreated and thinned substantially, leaving a glacial lake in its place. Glacial retreats have occurred around the world.
Courtesy of the USGS glacier group
2000

15. Have we changed the climate?
Global Climate Models
Use a computer to make a “model” of the earth
Tell the computer how to force the climate
Use science to come up with equations at points on the earth that tell what the Temperature, Winds,.. are and how they change
Change things around and see what happens!!!

16. Have we changed the climate?
Climate models capture the last 100 year's warming only if we include the human effects
Various groups of researchers have attempted to simulate the 20th century climate using “climate models”, sophisticated computer programs that represent the laws of physics as they apply to the Earth’s atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice. This figure shows one such study in which a climate model was run several times with natural climate influences (solar variations, volcanic eruptions), human climate influences (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols), and both kinds of influences. The best simulation of the 20th century climate uses all climate influences. In particular, the warming of the last 30 years (when human climate influence is expected to have grown strongest)
Natural Climate Influence
All Climate Influences

17. What will the future climate look like?
Global warming due to greenhouse gases will continue for many years even if we stop releasing CO2
How much warming occurs depends on what societies and businesses decide about how much fuel they burn
We use climate models to predict what might happen in different cases

18. What will the future climate look like?
The IPCC came up with a range of future scenarios of CO2 emissions, leading to a wide range of projected temperature changes. At the top end (5.8C) you have to assume extreme growth in CO2 emissions combined with very high sensitivity of climate to greenhouse gases, more than what is consistent with the observed 20th century warming. Likewise, the low end is probably also unrealistic without significant policy efforts.
Mid-century the likely warming is about 1C. Beyond that the envelope widens substantially, dependent largely on socioeconomic development.
The warming continues beyond Stabilizing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere does not immediately stabilize climate: that would take many more decades.
IPCC (

19. What will the future climate look like?
Changes are greater in far north / south
Changes in rain and snow are likely, but not as well understood
In WA snow will melt earlier

20. How will climate change affect people?
Understanding: Good
Everywhere:
Sea-level rise
Ecosystem change
effect on species
effect on farming
Melting of polar ice
effect on shipping
effect on wildlife
Coral death
WA:
Less mountain snow
Less water to go around in the summer
Coastal flooding (Olympia)
Harder for Salmon to survive in freshwater

21. How will climate change affect people?
Understanding: Medium
Everywhere:
Increase in intensity of hurricanes
Increase in droughts in some places
Increase in intense rain in some places
WA:
Changes in how well forests grow
Increased habitat for pests
Farming: some crops will grow better, some will grow worse
US Geological Survey

23. How will climate change affect people?
Understanding: Low
Everywhere:
How will humans react
Surprise changes WA
Increased winter flooding
Increased landslides
Overall forest health
Coastal erosion