Afghanistan and its Troublesome Neighbourhood The More Things Change, the More they Stay the Same? Kristian Berg Harpviken 16 October 2016

Afghanistan “ The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is a landlocked country in South-Central Asia. It is variously described as being located within Central Asia, South Asia, or the Middle East. It is bordered by Iran in the west, Pakistan in the south and east, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in the north, and China in the far northeast. ” wikipedia

Core of region? The conflict in Afghanistan has matured into a relatively stable social system that menaces the lives of millions of people. This conflict forms the core of a regional conflict formation, including the continuing challenges in Tajikistan, the growing conflict led by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan involving several states, processes of political decay in Pakistan, challenges to political order in Iran, and the insurgency in Kashmir. [The]more desirable policy goal would be reconstructing the country as part of the interstate and economic structure of an entire region. (…) The war is not a civil war but a transnational one. The transnational links are too deep to be untangled and will have to be transformed. Barnett R. Rubin, Ashraf Ghani, William Maley, Ahmed Rashid, Olivier Roy ‘Afghanistan: Reconstruction and Peacebuilding in a Regional Framework’, KOFF, 2001

Heart of Asia

New Opportunities?

The Quadrilateral Coordination Group Bringing Taliban to the table?

Regional Security Complexes a group of states whose primary security concerns link together sufficiently close that their national securities cannot realistically be considered apart from one another (Barry Buzan, People States and Fear, 1991) States as the prime actors Security concerns take precedence Regions robust over time

Core of region? The conflict in Afghanistan has matured into a relatively stable social system that menaces the lives of millions of people. This conflict forms the core of a regional conflict formation, including the continuing challenges in Tajikistan, the growing conflict led by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan involving several states, processes of political decay in Pakistan, challenges to political order in Iran, and the insurgency in Kashmir. [The]more desirable policy goal would be reconstructing the country as part of the interstate and economic structure of an entire region. (…) The war is not a civil war but a transnational one. The transnational links are too deep to be untangled and will have to be transformed. Barnett R. Rubin, Ashraf Ghani, William Maley, Ahmed Rashid, Olivier Roy ‘Afghanistan: Reconstruction and Peacebuilding in a Regional Framework’, KOFF, 2001

Afghanistan

Afghanistan in the region

A Rock Between Hard Places?

South Asia

South Asia Members Main actors Regional hegemon Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, The Maldives Main actors India-Pakistan Regional hegemon India Main regional security concern India-Pakistan: existential distrust Main concerns related to Afghanistan ’Strategic depth’ Pashtunistan Durand line

South Asia Processes of change Supraregional actors Ascending India Descending Pakistan Supraregional actors United States, China, Russia (?) Regional security organization SAARC Transnational challenges Al Qaeda Taliban Islamic State Afghan allies Pakistan: Taliban India: Various non-Pashtun groups

South Asia

Central Asia

Central Asia Members Main actors Regional hegemon Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Main actors Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Regional hegemon Contested Main regional security concerns Regime stability Balancing Russia Independence Main concerns related to Afghanistan Radicalization/Militancy

Central Asia Processes of change Supraregional actors China/Russia overturns the US Supraregional actors China, US, Russia, Turkey Regional security organization Shanghai, Cooperation Association (SCA) Transnational challenge Drugs Islamist extremism Afghan allies Various non-Pashtun groups

Central Asia

The Persian Gulf

The Persian Gulf Members Main actors Regional hegemon Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates Main actors Iran-Saudi Arabia Regional hegemon Contested Main regional security concern Iran-Saudi: ideology contest Main concern related to Afghanistan Protecting the Shia US presence

The Persian Gulf Processes of change Supraregional actors Managing tension Uncertainty over Iraq Supraregional actors US Russia-China Regional security organization Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Transnational challenge Al Qaeda Drugs Migration Afghan allies Iran: Shia groups, non-Pashtun groups Saudi: None?

The Persian Gulf

Generalizations South Asia: Conflict/Proxy War Central Asia: Non-engagement Persian Gulf: Rivalry

Afghanistan in the region Implications Traditional security first Inertia Afghanistan and security cooperation What’s New?

Thank you!