1. Dr Ngoc NGUYEN Institute for International Relations, Vietnam
Surge in demand for energy and implications for America’s Relations with Russia and China
Dr Ngoc NGUYEN
Institute for International Relations, Vietnam

2. Surge in demand for energy
World energy use (1990 – 2020) (quadrillion BTU)
(Source:
1990: 346
1999: 381.8
2010: 489.7
2020: 607.1

3. Increasing oil consumption of the US, Russia and China (million barrels/day) (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2006: 11)
Countries
2002
2003
2004
2005 US
19.76
20.03
20.73
20.65
China
5.54
6.01
7.08
7.27
Russia
2.61
2.65
2.71
2.75

4. Increasing energy demand vs limited and non-renewable resources
* Only ten world biggest oil consumers:
nearly 50 million barrels ONE DAY (in 2005)
* All world oil reserves: 1,200.7 billion barrels (in 2005)
(Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2006: 6, 11).

5. Implications: Conflict of Interests and Challenges to US Global Hegemony
Iran: world fourth oil producer
Central Asia: world second energy resources
SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation): China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan
Africa: Sudan
Latin America

6. Iran US: pressure on Iran’s nuclear programme
China: first buyer of Iranian oil
Russia: increase political leverage
China + Russia: opposed to UN Security Council’s embargo on Iran

7. Central Asia
Russia: backyard, geopolitical and economic importance: agreements with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan.
China: adjacent, easy to transport
US: 3 aims: (i) access to rich resources, (ii) control Russia, (iii) contain China’s rise.

8. SCO (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan)
July 2005: ask for US’ withdrawal from Central Asia
June 2006: SCO 6th summit: joined by Head of State from Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia and India: 6 SCO members and 4 observers: a quarter of world oil resources.
Refusal to US’s request to be an observer of SCO

9. Africa: Sudan US approach > < China’s approach
US: democracy, good governance, human rights  break relation
China: non-intervention, non-ideological 
Sudan is China’s biggest oil producer abroad

10. Latin America US’s ‘backyard’ and traditional oil exporter
Return of left-wing movements in Latin America
China’s intensive efforts and presence in the region challenge the order that US has set up and maintained.

11. THANK YOU FOR
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