Promoting Transnational Trade in Energy: SAARC, South East Asia and Central Asia March 2, 2016

Crude oil proven reserves (Billion Barrels) SAARC 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India 5.7 5.6 5.5 Maldives Nepal Pakistan 0.3 0.2 0.4 Sri Lanka Central Asia 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Kazakhstan 30 Kyrgyzstan 0.04 Tajikistan 0.01 Turkmenistan 0.6 Uzbekistan Source: EIA Source: EIA South East Asia 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Brunei 1.1 Burma (Myanmar) 0.1 Cambodia Indonesia 4.0 3.9 3.7 Laos Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand 0.4 0.5 Vietnam 0.6 4.4 Source: EIA

Natural gas reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet) SAARC   2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Afghanistan 1.8 Bangladesh 6.9 6.5 9.3 8.5 Bhutan India 37.9 40.7 43.8 47.8 50.4 Maldives Nepal Pakistan 29.7 26.6 24.0 26.7 24.7 Sri Lanka Central Asia   2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Kazakhstan 85 Kyrgyzstan 0.2 Tajikistan Turkmenistan 265 Uzbekistan 65 Source: EIA Source: EIA South East Asia   2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Brunei 13.8 Burma (Myanmar) 10 Cambodia Indonesia 106 141.1 108.4 104.7 103.4 Laos Malaysia 83 Philippines 3.5 Singapore Thailand 11.0 10.6 10.1 9.0 8.4 Vietnam 6.8 24.7 Source: EIA

Primary energy demand by fuel-type in India million tonnes of oil equivalent   Shares 2013-2040 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040 Change CAAGR* Oil 112 176 229 329 458 23% 24% 282 3.60% Natural gas 23 45 58 103 149 6% 8% 104 4.60% Coal 146 341 476 690 934 44% 49% 592 3.80% Nuclear 4 9 17 43 70 1% 4% 61 7.90% Renewables 155 204 237 274 297 26% 16% 93 1.40% Hydropower 6 12 15 22 29 2% 16 3.20% Bioenergy 188 209 217 11% 20 0.40% Other renewables 13 35 60 0% 3% 56 11.00% Fossil fuel share 64% 72% 75% 78% 81% n.a. Total 441 775 1 018 1 440 1 908 100% 1 133 3.40% Source: IEA, 2015 *Compound average annual growth rate. New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced.

Crude oil and Natural gas production - India Year Crude Oil Production (million metric tonnes) % Growth in Crude Oil Production Natural Gas Production (billion cubic metres) % Growth in Natural Gas Production 2009-10 33.69 0.54 47.496 44.61 2010-11 37.684 11.85 52.219 9.94 2011-12 38.09 1.08 47.559 -8.92 2012-13 37.862 -0.6 40.679 -14.47 2013-14 37.788 -0.19 35.407 -12.96 2014-15* 37.461 -0.87 33.656 -4.94 Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas Contd..

India has total reserves of 763. 476 MMT of Crude Oil and 1488 India has total reserves of 763.476 MMT of Crude Oil and 1488.73 BCM of Natural Gas as of 01.04.2015 Crude Oil production during 2014-15 is 37.461 MMT which is 0.87% lower than 37.788 MMT produced during 2013-14

Crude oil imports Contd.. (US$ million) Year Oil Imports 2000-01   (US$ million) Year Oil Imports 2000-01 15650.1 2001-02 14000.3 2002-03 17639.5 2003-04 20569.5 2004-05 29844.1 2005-06 43963.1 2006-07 56945.3 2007-08 79644.5 2008-09 93671.7 2009-10 87135.9 2010-11 105964.4 2011-12 154967.6 2012-13 164040.6 2013-14 164770.3 2014-15 138324.7 Note : Data for 2013-14 are revised and for 2014-15 are provisional Source: RBI Contd..

Crude oil imports Contd.. Region/ Country 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 Thousand barrels per day Region/ Country 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 MIDDLE EAST 1074 1106 1233 1298 1466 1624 1797 1907 2084 2120 2376 LATAM 107 137 84 55 47 94 56 196 280 326 337 ASIA 57 79 90 83 108 96 98 81 97 82 CIS 11 3 4 22 49 37 80 29 21 AFRICA 345 338 413 480 395 392 430 667 713 625 EUROPE 8 5 13 TOTAL 1581 1647 1811 1925 1996 2239 2437 2666 3198 3285 3439 Source: Reuters Contd..

Thousand barrels per day ASIA 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Australia 3 2 7 34 13 Brunei 5 11 16 10 17 18 19 22 China 1 Indonesia 12 Malaysia 36 55 68 69 70 95 86 79 53 44 47 Thailand Vietnam Total 56 57 90 83 108 96 98 81 97 82 Source: Reuters

Coal imports - India (Million tonnes) Coal 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(Prov.) 2015-16* Coking Coal 31.8 35.56 36.87 43.71 26.78 Non-Coking Coal 71.05 110.23 129.99 168.39 84.9 Total Coal Import 102.85 145.79 166.86 212.1 111.68 Coke 2.37 3.08 4.17 3.29 1.78 *Import upto October, 2015, Source: Ministry of Coal India’s production of coal in 2014-15 was 612.44 million tonnes while it was about 70 million tonnes at the time of nationalization of coal mines in early 1970’s.

Coal imports Coal imports by origin in India in the New Policies Scenario* Million tonnes of coal equivalent Source: IEA, 2015 New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced. Indonesia is the main exporter to India, currently accounting for around 60% of imported coal. India shipped in 12.35 million tonnes of coal in December 2015, a 34.3 percent decline from the same month a year ago.

TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline TAPI project aims to export up to 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year through a proposed approximately 1,800-kilometer (km) pipeline from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India It is estimated that construction of this pipeline will cost US$ 10 billion Contd..

Construction on this project started in Turkmenistan on 13 December 2015. The pipeline is expected to be operational by 2019 (Reuters 2015) Contd..

Of 33 billion cubic metres (1 Of 33 billion cubic metres (1.2 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas per year 5 billion cubic metres (180 billion cubic feet) will be provided to Afghanistan and 14 billion cubic metres (490 billion cubic feet) to each Pakistan and India

Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Gas pipeline Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project (also called Peace Pipeline) is aimed at constructing a 1,620-mile (2700 km) pipeline On May 25, 2009, Iran and Pakistan signed an initial agreement for a USD 7.5bn Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline Contd..

Commenting on the IPI pipeline, Iran state-owned National Iranian Gas Export Company’s (NIGEC’s) managing director Alireza Kameli has said that Iran is focusing on the Iran-Pakistan part of the project India has not been participating in talks on IPI pipeline since 2007 due to security concerns

Iran – India undersea gas pipeline Under this proposal, South Asia Gas Enterprise (SAGE) will lay the 1,400 km pipeline by-passing the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Pakistan. On December 7, 2015, Iran state-owned National Iranian Gas Export Company’s (NIGEC’s) managing director Alireza Kameli said the 1,400-km pipeline would transport natural gas from Iran via Oman Sea and Indian Ocean to Gujarat. Contd..

Kameli added that planned pipeline is to carry 31 Kameli added that planned pipeline is to carry 31.5 million standard cubic meters gas per day and will be built in two years, from the date necessary approvals and a gas sale and purchase agreement are signed