1. Centre for Policy Alternatives, New Delhi
Major Features of Economic Globalisation: Its Evolution & Current Trends By
Mohan Guruswamy
Centre for Policy Alternatives, New Delhi

2. Brief History of WTO
The 50 years old multilateral trading system under GATT was transformed into WTO in 1995
WTO has 150 members, accounting for over 97% of World Trade
Over the past 50 years merchandise exports grew at an average of 6% annually
In 2000 total trade in the World stood at 22 times the level of 1950
Contd..

3. Brief History of WTO
From 1947 to 1994, GATT was the forum for negotiating lower customs duty rates and other custom barriers
Since 1995 it deals with specific sectors such as agriculture and textiles, state trading, product standards, subsidies and anti-dumping measures

4. Growth of World Trade since 1980 (Bn US $)
1990
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
Trade Value
3841
6897
10,216
12,967
12,537
13,080
15,237
Growth (%) --
79.56
48.12 30
-3.32
4.33
16.49
Export
1900
3386
5078
6375
6147
6438
7492
Import
1941
3511
5138
6592
6390
6643
7745
Source: Direction of Trade Statistics Year Book, 1987, 1997, 2002, 2004, IMF

5. Top Traders of the World
Country
Value
(Expo.)
Share (%)
Rank
(Impo.)
Germany
912.3 10 1
716.9
7.6 2
USA
818.8
8.9
1525.5
16.1
China
593.3
6.5 3
561.2
5.9
Japan
568.8
6.2 4
454.5
4.8 6
India
75.6
0.8 30
60.7
0.6 13
*Values are in US $ bn
Source: Leading Exporters in World Merchandise Trade, 2004, World Trade Organisation website

6. Growth of World Economy since 1980
Year
Gross World Product (GWP) (Trillion US $)
Per capita GWP (US $)
Annual % Growth in GWP
Annual % Growth in Per capita
1980
26.8
6,042 --
1985
30.7
6,345
2.75
0.98
1990
36.3
6,867
3.4
1.59
1995
40.8
7,168
2.36
0.86
2000
48.6
7,985
3.66
2.18
2004
55.9
8,753
3.56
2.32
Source: World Watch Institute 2002 & World Economic Outlook Database, 2005, IMF

7. Comparison of Indian & Chinese Economy with the World, 2003
World
India
China
GDP (bn $)
34,577
570.8
1417
Per capita GDP ($)
5510
540
1100
Source: World Development Indicators 2005

8. Economic Growth of China since 1979
1979
2004
GDP ($ bn)
177
1601
Per capita ($)
183
1100*
Annual GDP Growth (%)
6.2 ( )
9.3 ( )
*Pertains to 2003
Source: China Economic Conditions, CRS Issue brief for Congress, 2005 & Outlook on the Chinese Economy, Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford Univ. , USA

9. Economic Growth of India since 1960
GDP Growth (%)
3.3
5.6
6.1
GDP Per capita Growth (%)
1.0
4.1
Source: Economic Survey & 10th Five Year Plan Documents

10. Economic Growth of India since 1980
GDP (Rs. bn.)
4011
5140
6929
8996
11986
13183
Avg. Annual Growth (%) --
5.08
6.15
5.36
5.9
3.22
Per capita (Rs.)
5352
6082
7321
8489
10313
11672
2.59
3.77
3.04
3.96
3.14
*Data pertains to Constant Prices
Source: National Account Statistics to & 2004 & Economic Survey

11. Growth of Manufacturing in China
Industrial
Growth %
Industrial Ownership Trends (%)
1979
2000
Light Industry
7.83
11.23
22 (collective)
14 (collective)
56 (other types)
Heavy Industry
11.37
11.1
78 (state owned)
24 (state owned)
6 (individual)
Source: Outlook on Chinese Economy,2002, Dept. of Economics, Stanford University, USA

12. Growth of Manufacturing in India
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2003
Manufacturing
(Rs. bn)
639
897
1342
1847
2341
2581
% of GDP
15.93
17.44
19.36
20.53
19.53
19.57
% Growth -- 7
8.39
6.59
4.85
3.3
*Figures are at constant prices
Source: National Account Statistics, Series , & 2004

13. China & India’s Manufacturing vis-à-vis World
1990
(billion $)
2003
Growth of Manu. Sector (%)
as % of World Manu. in 1990
as % of World Manu. in 2003
World
4,772
6,563
2.48 --
China
117
553
12.68
2.45
8.42
India 54 96
4.55
1.12
1.46
Source: Data calculated from World Development Indicators 2005

14. US Trade Deficit Trends
Year
Export
Import
Trade Deficit
1980
272
291
-19
1985
290
411
-121
1990
535
617
-81
1995
794
891
-96
2000
1071
1450
-378
2001
1007
1370
363
2002
977
1398
-421
2003
1023
1517
-495
2004
1151
1769
-618
* Value in Billion US $
Source: Foreign Trade Division, US Census Bureau

15. External Sector of India, China & ASEAN Countries
Country
Exports
Imports
Current Account Balance
Foreign reserves
ASEAN
466
383
57.2*
236
China
438
413
68.7
711
India 55 70
-6.4
127
*Data of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand & Philippines
Source: ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic surveillance Unit, Statistical Outline of India & The Economist August 27, 2005

16. China’s International Trade since 1980
Year
Export Value
(US $ bn)
Import Value
Trade as % of GDP
1980
18.1
10.9 6
1985
27.3
42.2 9
1990
62.1
53.3
16.1
1995
71.9
63.7
17.7
2000
249.2
225.1
23.1
2002
325.6
295.1
26.1
2003
440.0
412.0
31.5
2004
438.0
413.0 --
Source: China Foreign Economic and Trade Statistics Year book, various issues

17. China’s Trade Statistics, 2003 (US$ bn)
Country
Export
Import
Total Trade
% of Total Trade
Japan 60 74
134
15.7
USA 93 34
127
14.9
EU 15 Countries 72 53
125
14.7
S. Korea 21 43 64
7.4
ASEAN 31 47 78
9.2
Others
163
161
324
38.1
Source: Direction of Trade Statistics, 2004, IMF

18. India’s International Trade since 1981
Year
Export
Import
Export % of GDP
Import % of GDP
(Rs. bn)
1981 78
136
1.83
3.2
1985
118
197
2.28
3.82
1990
326
432
4.69
6.23
1995
1064
1227
10.03
11.57
2000
1596
2155
8.46
11.43
2551
2972
11.37
13.25
2916
3540
11.63
14.12
Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Govt. of India

19. India’s Trade Statistics (Rs. bn)
Country
Share
Growth (%)
USA
239
262
16.46
9.68 EU
292
356
22.42 22
SAARC
72.5
81.7
5.14
12.72
ASEAN
179
231
14.55
29.37
AFRICA
76.5
112
7.07
46.96
CHINA
57.4 88
5.53
53.17
Total
916.4
1130.7 --
23.38
Source: Economic Division, Dept. of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce, Govt. of India

20. India’s External Financial Position (bn US $)
Exports 55
Imports 70
Trade Balance
-15
Workers Remittances
21.7
Current Account Balance
-6.4
Source: ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic surveillance Unit, Statistical Outline of India & The Economist August 27, 2005 &

21. Source Regions of Workers’ Remittances to India
Year
Africa
America
Asia
Europe
Int. Insti.
Total
(US $ bn)
2.3
37.1
31.3 26
3.3
11.88
1.7
36.7
23.6
0.9
10.34 1
45.5
31.9
20.6
12.29
1.3
44.9
34.3 19
0.5
12.87
4.5
48.2 23
23.2
1.1
12.19
0.6
51.1 22
25.8
15.17
Source: Report on Currency & Finance , RBI

22. Petroleum Consumption in India & China since 1980 (mn barrels per day)
Year
India
China
World
1980
0.64
1.77
63.11
1985
0.89
1.89
60.9
1990
1.17
2.3
66.58
1995
1.57
3.36
70.02
2000
2.13
4.8
76.95
2003
2.32
5.55
80.1
Source: Annual Energy Review, 2004, Energy Information Administration, USA

23. Price Trends of World Crude Oil since 1983
Year
Price (US $ per barrel)
Percent decrease/
increase
1983
31.35 --
1987
20.48
-34.76
1991
20.76
1.36
1995
17.18
-17.2
1999
19.39
12.86
2003
30.4
56.78
2005
58.75
93.25
*Prices of the above are of July 1st of each year
Source: Energy Information Administration, US Dept. of Energy

24. China’s Oil Dependence 2004-05 (Million Metric Tonnes)
Domestic Production
180
Import
145
Total Consumption
325
Import Value
(US $ bn)
62.78
Source: Energy Intelligence Agency, Govt. of USA

25. India’s Oil Dependence (in million metric tonnes)
Production
31.9 32
34.0*
Import
57.8
78.7
98.9**
Total Consumption
89.7
110.7
132.9
Import Value in US$***
$ 10.4 bn
$ 13.4 bn
$ 36.3 bn
*Extrapolated from data of April 2004 to August 2004 **Provisional Figures, ***Import Value calculated on the basis of prevailing World Crude Prices as on the financial year mid-point, Oct 1st.
Source: Basic Statistics on Indian Petroleum & Natural Gas, , Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Govt. of India & US Dept. of Energy

26. FDI Flow into China since 1979
Year
FDI Flow (US $ bn)
Annual Avg. Receipt
Annual Avg. Increase (%)
(US $ bn)
1.8
0.36
55.4
21.5
2.7
27.2
282.6
35.3
32.1
191.5
47.9
78.91
Source: OECD, 2000 & World Investment Report 2004, UNCTAD

27. FDI inflow into India since 1990
Year
FDI Flow (US $ bn)
Annual Avg. Receipt
Annual Avg. Increase (%)
(US $ bn)
4.3
0.86 --
13.1
2.6
24.95
11.1
3.7
12.19
Source: World Investment Report 2004, UNCTAD, World Bank 2002 & Statistical Outline of India , TATA Economic Services