Market Trends David Edwards April 2010

Competition for international tourism remains fierce Destinations with positive growth in 2009 Turkey, South Africa, Cuba, Peru, Cambodia, Bahrain, Montenegro, Morocco

UK’s global market share

Global league tables

Charting trends

Inbound tourism recovering, but only slowly We forecast inbound visits to Britain to grow by 1% and visitor spending to increase by 4% We will not return to the record visitor numbers seen in 2007 until at least 2011 UNWTO forecast global growth of 3% in 2010 after 4% decline in 2009 IATA anticipate global air travel back to pre-recession levels by summer 2010

Recent inbound volume and value trends

Our most important markets: 2009 performance USA -4% Germany -5% France +5% Spain +9% Ireland -5%

Mixed picture for long-haul markets Canada -20% Argentina +92% South Korea -42% Malaysia +59% UAE +6% South Africa -13% Taiwan +42%

Inbound journey purpose trends

The inbound study market: volume and value trends

Relative importance of inbound study visits and spend

Top inbound study markets by volume

Top inbound study markets by value

Economic trends Unemployment has peaked… or has it? Asia still leading the recovery North America perking up Europe is lagging behind UK may see double-dip recession

Britain can still exploit the ‘value’ message Volatility is the watchword for 2010

The decade of austerity starts here Public sector broadly immune from recession in 2008 and 2009 Likely to see substantial public sector spending and job cuts in 2011-12 Industrial strife possible across many sectors Consumers will face higher taxes Challenging environment in which to call for APD hike due in November to be withdrawn

Connectivity and accessibility 1,435 separate scheduled air routes connected Britain to the world in 2009 But airports handled 7.4% fewer passengers than in 2008 Uncertainties grow over a third runway at Heathrow IATA estimate cost to aviation of volcanic ash is $1.7bn A visitor visa to visit the UK now costs £68 A visa to study in the UK now costs £199

With right support tourism can be a growth industry for Britain Visitor Economy is worth £115bn today, £188bn by 2020 Gross Value Added could grow by 3.5% pa through to 2020, compared with overall economic GVA growing at 2.9% pa Potential to support an additional 250,000 jobs by 2020 (reaching 2.9 million Inbound spend has potential to grow at 4.4% pa, domestic spend 2.6% pa over next decade Inbound visitors contribute £3bn pa in taxes

Factors contributing to current tourism trends in Britain