1. International & National Travel Outlook
For
29th Annual Southern California Visitors Industry Outlook Conference
October 20, 2017

2. Factors Impacting International Travel & Destination Choices
Origin country economic conditions
Exchange rates between origin and destination countries
Size and disposable income of (origin) population
Physical, financial, political ability of individuals to travel
Traveler access to visas, required documentation
Government imposed travel restrictions
Destination economics/costs
Destination conditions (e.g., war, famine, storms, fires, etc.)
Consumer confidence
Perceptions about destination through real-news, fake-news, word of mouth, media, social media, etc.
Competitive forces
Marketing promotion

3. KEY THEMES FOR U.S. & GLOBAL ECONOMY
Consumers positioned for leisure travel growth
Steady job and modest income growth – 16 year low unemployment rate
Stronger consumer confidence supporting spending and travel
Gas prices expected to remain relatively steady and reasonable
Business is Solid
Businesses are profitable
Business investment growth is resuming; stock market doing well
Manufacturing activity rebounding
Proposed tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and less regulation viewed as positives
Global economy is accelerating
World GDP 2018 forecast 3.0%
China GDP continues to slow down – but still at relatively strong growth
Europe: holding at modest growth but picking up
Exchange rate: $U.S. still strong but weakening against many world currencies
w which leads to increased travel

4. 2017 & 2018 U.S. GDP ACCELERATING
US GDP

5. Most Growth in Asia
Global Economies 2017
% Change (from 2016)

6. Asian Growth Expected to Continue in 2018
Global Economies 2018 Forecast
% Change (from 2017)

7. Top International Inbound U.S. & CAL
United States
CAL
Annual Volume (mill.)
2016
Rank
Annual Spend
($bill.)
Ann. Volume (mill)
2018 (f)
Annual
Volume
(mill.)
Canada
19.3 1
$20.9 2
19.4
7.90
Mexico
18.7
$20.0 3
21.3
1.50
Utd. Kingdom
4.6
$16.0 5
4.9
.69 4
Japan
3.6
$16.1
3.8
.55 6
China
3.0
$33.0
4.0
1.36
Germany
2.0
$8.0 10
2.2
.42 9
South Korea 7
$8.6
.47
Brazil
1.7 8
$11.0
n/a
France
1.6
1.8
.44
Australia
1.4
$8.7
.60
India
1.3 11
1.5
.32

8. Panelists
Robert Kleinhenz - Economist and Executive Director of Research, Beacon Economics
Topic – Outlook for State & Regional Economies
Dan Mishell - Director of Research, California Travel & Tourism Commission/Visit California
Topic - Outlook for California Tourism
Skip Hull - Senior Vice President, CIC Research Inc.
Topic - Outlook for Southern California Tourism