1. TEMPLATE FOR FAST TRACKING AVIATION BY 2050
Dr. Harold Demuren
Rennaissance Hotel, Ikeja, Lagos, Nigeria 17 October, 2017

8. AFRICA: Revenue Passenger – Kilometer (RPK)

12. Main drivers of traffic and fleet growth toward 2030
Air Transportation in 2030s
Main drivers of traffic and fleet growth toward 2030
RPK traffic by airline domicile (left), World annual RPK in the next 15 years (right) [Airbus13]
arc.itu.edu.tr

14. World in 2050 - Economy arc.itu.edu.tr
Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth (left), Trips over GDP per capita (right) [Airbus13]
arc.itu.edu.tr

15. Air Transportation in 2030s
Market shares of carriers (left) [Airbus13], Fleet composition change (right) [Boeing13]
arc.itu.edu.tr

16. Air Transportation in 2030s
Emerging economies and the impact on air transportation growth up to the 2030s
“…, we must embrace the reality of an industry whose center of gravity is shifting away from our traditional leaders in the US and Europe. Asia-Pacific is already our biggest market. The continued development of China
and India will keep this region at the industry’s forefront. We must engage the region to deliver leadership for change.” [IATA11]
arc.itu.edu.tr

17. Air connectivity has enabled global supply chains Dell, Apple, Amazon would look very different without rapid air freight
France
Soundcards
Japan
RAM Chips CD-ROM Drives
Dell manufacturing plant
Austin, Texas
Businesses can set up much more efficient global supply chains
China
Power supplies
Taiwan
Network Cards Monitors Cooling Fans
Mexico
Keyboards
Singapore
SCSI Cards Disk Devices
Malaysia
Floppy Drives
Hong Kong
Video Cards Microprocessors
Source: Dell, IATA
IATA Economics

18. Aviation plays a major role in most economies
Footprint of aviation and tourism measured by the sector’s GVA as % GDP
Malta
Lebanon
Cyprus
United Arab Emirates
Iceland
New Zealand
Thailand
Singapore
Hong Kong
Egypt
Australia
Greece
Ireland
Canada
Jordan
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
Turkey
Chile
Finland
Sweden
France
Kenya
Malaysia
Luxembourg
WORLD AVERAGE
Portugal
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Netherlands
Belgium
Israel
Germany
Taiwan
Norway
Switzerland
Philippines
Korea
Latvia
Mexico
Peru
Austria
Ecuador
Italy
Colombia
India
Denmark
Brazil
Hungary
Russian Federation
China
Romania
Czech Republic
Japan
Poland Nigeria
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Aviation and tourism GVA as a % GDP
Source: Oxford Economics. Note: GVA = Gross Value Added which is
mainly wages and profits. GDP = Gross Domestic Product
IATA Economics

19. Massive expansion ahead for emerging markets
Expanding middle classes drive both travel and air cargo flows Serving this demand will require a big expansion of investment
Global middle income class in 2009 and prediction for 2030
Europe
North America
Asia Pacific
Middle East &
North Africa
Central & South America
Sub Saharan Africa
100mn 500mn 1bn
2030
2009
Source: OECD, Standard Chartered Bank
IATA Economics

20. Profitability is very unbalanced across the value chain
Airlines sit in the middle of the value chain making the least returns
ROIC excluding goodwill of sample, period , % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 44 20 11 9 9 15 7 6 4
Cost of capital
Source: McKinsey
10-11
IATA Economics 10