1. THE NEW REALITY FOR TRAVEL & TOURISM? UFI IBRAHIM CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL

3. Rising per capita incomes are a key driver of international tourism …

5. Air passenger declines waning

9. Intl Visitor Flows -Yr to date: UNWTO World: -7.4% Europe: -8.4% Asia Pacific: -6.5% Americas: -6.7% Africa: +4.4% Middle East: -13.4%

10. WHEN AND WHERE WILL RECOVERY & GROWTH COME FROM IN SHORT/MED TERM? IMF states France and Germany already on path of recovery? Returned to growth. Emerging economies are even stronger. China and India.

11. While still below developed countries in ten years’ time…

12. … Growth of BRICs’ per capita incomes are catching up rapidly…

13. …resulting in surge in Chinese trips abroad…

14. …with similar trends likely across the other BRICs

15. Take note of India... 10.7 million outbound trips in 2008 annual growth of 12% per annum since 1998 40% business, 20% VFR, 20% leisure US$1.7bn spending in 1998; US$9.6bn in 2008 – nearly six fold increase Total trip volume doubled in 5 years

16. A world full of regulation... Tax, tax and more tax Environmental Legislation local, national, regional or international? Or all the above?

17. Value-trotters... “globally aware, environmentally-conscious, technologically-savvy, time- poor individuals who are spoiled by a wide range of choice and consider themselves good world citizens.” Ufi Ibrahim, 2007

18. University of Maryland Programme on international policy attitudes World Public Opinion Survey(2009): 19 nations 18,578 people

20. 73% want higher priority for climate change 77% Britons want greater government intervention 44% of US Citizens want climate change to be a major preoccupation of the Obama administration Findings taken from Maryland University Programme on International Policy Attitudes, World Public Opinion Survey

21. In China - 94% supported the need for government to keep climate change on the front burner. And in India, 59% of the public wanted their government to make climate change a top priority. Findings taken from Maryland University Programme on International Policy Attitudes, World Public Opinion Survey

22. ‘Take it for granted?’

23. The Tipping Point The International Ecotourism Society states that ecotourism is growing at three times the rate of traditional vacationing, increasing annually up to 30%

24. Risk Free?

25. What could be the impact of a real H1N1 pandemic?

26. The swine flu epidemic so far Affected: Americas, esp. Mexico Asia, fear of SARS repeat and government stern response

27. Globally visitor exports fall 60% vs base forecast (US$620bn) The epidemic also hits domestic tourism, causing losses to the industry beyond the fall in foreign visitors

28. “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change” Charles Darwin