John McCain A 120 Day Strategy

The Day After Kerry Got the Nomination AZ, AR, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NH, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, WA, WI, WV. The Republicans spent $85 million in 18 states on radio and TV ads attacking Kerry for 90 days. New York Times, 6/20/04

Messaging on Kerry: Weird, Waffling, and Weak Liberal Flip-Flopper Weak on Defense

After McCain Gets the Nomination CO, IA, MI, MN, MO, NM, NV, OH, WI. We hope to spend $41 million over 90 days.

Messaging on McCain: Same Old Thing Same as Bush No Econ, All $$ to Iraq Double Talker

John McCain is the Same as Bush… “I don’t think Americans are concerned If we’re [in Iraq] for 100 years or 1,000 years or 10,000 years.” John McCain on Face the Nation, 1/6/08 “We’ve got to make these tax cuts permanent.” John McCain on Meet The Press, 1/27/08 “’The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should,’ McCain said. ‘I’ve got Greenspan’s book.’” Boston Globe, 12/18/07

…But the Public Likes McCain. Here’s what they said in focus groups: “Honest. Does what he says. Real change, smaller government. Less taxes. Fix social security.” David D., Las Vegas, NV, 2/7/08 “He speaks with great credibility. When he speaks, you do not doubt his word. You might not agree with him, but you know its from the heart.” Man, Cincinnati, OH, 2/6/08 “Hero. Years of service to the nation. Will work with Democrats. Not too far right. Strong on security.” Becky L., Las Vegas, NV, 2/7/08 “Stands up for what he strongly believes in. Not too far right. Not blindly religious. Military man but also compassionate.” David H., Las Vegas, NV, 2/7/08

People Like John McCain in Polls Now, I am going to read you another list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Republican John McCain very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Positive Attributes Negative Attributes Battleground Survey fielded February 13-19, 2007 – Greenberg, Quinlan, and Rosner 1,202 likely voters in ten battleground states: CO, FL, IA, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, VA, WI

Our Strategy Define McCain with connection to Bush. Set a narrative for McCain’s character and policies. Keep the GOP on the defensive. Keep Bush on the ballot for this election. Maintain control of frame for war in Iraq. Hold the media accountable.

Surround voters with reinforcing communications. Layered Media Broadcast Cable Radio Print Internet Phones Surround voters with reinforcing communications.

Web-Testing TV Ads We recruited 1,600 people… …and tell us what they thought. …to watch our ads on the internet… The degree of agreement and persuasion was analyzed for each ad. Web-testing has been used since 2004 and is now on the cutting edge of survey research.

“McSame” Worked Our ads performed better than ads tested in 2004 and 2006. Most ads shifted viewers’ perception of McCain to the negative. “McSame” and the two ads featuring an Iraq War Veteran, Rose Forrest, were especially persuasive.

Testing our Ads in a Media Market On the Air in Erie, Pennsylvania We identified Erie, PA, as a target media market… …we polled people in Erie.… …we are running cable, TV, radio, and internet ads, and made phone calls… …then we will poll Erie again to see the effect our ads had on people.

90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Ohio 90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Targeted Systems Cleveland Columbus Charleston Lima Parkersburg Toledo Youngstown Zanesville

90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet New Mexico 90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Targeted Systems Albuquerque El Paso (cable/radio) Amarillo (cable/radio)

90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Colorado 90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Targeted Systems Denver Colorado Springs Grand Junction

90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Wisconsin 90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Targeted Systems Denver Colorado Springs Grand Junction

90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Iowa 90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Targeted Systems Des Moines Cedar Rapids Sioux City

90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Minnesota 90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Targeted Systems Minneapolis Rochester

90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Nevada 90 days of Broadcast, Cable, Radio, and Internet Targeted Systems Las Vegas Reno

Sample State Media Spending Four Initial Targets—One Week Broadcast TV Cable Radio Internet State Total Ohio $468,601 $299,286 $13,463 $5,500 $783,850 Wisconsin $296,400 $116,172 $42,833 $4,500 $457,905 New Mexico $113,540 $75,342 $22,013 $3,500 $213,395 Colorado $300,777 $94,865 $73,228 $5,250 $471,370 Total $1,179,318 $585,666 $151,536 $18,750 $1,926,520

Total Spending 120 Days State 90 Day Total Ohio EDIT THIS Wisconsin New Mexico Colorado Nevada Iowa Minnesota Earned Media Campaign Total

Links to Ads "McSame as Bush" http://www.vimeo.com/715457 "Rose-Priorities" http://www.vimeo.com/715388 "Photocopy" http://www.vimeo.com/715407 "Dating" http://www.vimeo.com/715367 "Recession" http://www.vimeo.com/715452 Password: 2008win