1. The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections

2. The Public’s Interest Average # of Viewers (Millions)
2012 Florida GOP Debate
O’Reilly
Fox News
Rachel Maddow
American public has not yet tuned in (220,000,000 eligible voters)
American Idol
Dancing with the Stars
2 Broke Girls
Source: Nielsen Media Research. GOP Data: 2 2

3. The Republican Nomination Contest
Iowa Caucus 6.5 % New Hampshire Primary 31.1 South Carolina Primary 17.6 Florida Primary 12.8 Nevada Caucus 1.9 Minnesota Caucus* 1.2 Colorado Caucus 1.8 Missouri Primary 7.4 Maine Caucus* .5

4. Normal People Uninformed, Confused, Ambivalent (Busy)
 Not Extreme, Pragmatic, Not Ideological
Voters not responsible for this instability

5. Political Overreach Lyndon Johnson 1964-1966-1968
Jimmy Carter
Bill Clinton
Newt Gingrich
George W. Bush
Barack Obama ?
I accept conventional wisdom -- Obama and the Dems overreached (went beyond what marginal member of their electoral coalition would accept)
Why? Is it strike while the iron is hot? Or delusion? Both.

6. George W. Bush
“I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.” (2004) “On social security, I may have misread the electoral mandate …” (2010)

7. “… generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children … that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs for the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.” Barack Obama, June 4, 2008
High expectations

8. Ray Fair Model The vote equation for 2012 is then:
VOTE: Republican share of two-party
presidential vote in election V O T E
GOODNEWS
GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at annual rate
The vote equation for 2012 is then:
VOTE = C + .B*GROWTH - .B*INFLATION + B*GOODNEWS 8 8

13. Obama as Divider Average R approval Average D approval Gap
Obama year percent percent %
Obama Year percent percent %
Democrats will vote Obama Republicans will vote Romney
Independents will decide who wins presidency

15. Party Identification

18. Gallup Most Important Problem (June 2012)
Economy (General) 31 % Unemployment 25 Government 12 Federal Budget Deficit 11 Healthcare 6 Lack of money 5 Ethical / Moral decline 4 Education 4
Only slight exaggerations

19. Is economy getting better

20. How is the economy:depends on who you ask

23. October 1,2012

24. "Mitt Romney was seen as better able to handle the economy, taxes, and the budget deficit among the debate audience, but it seems that issues were trumped, or at least blunted, by intangibles, including the expectations game," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

26. April 15

27. Pre –post debate shift

28. Strategy & the 2008 Electoral College
AK-3
2008: Obama 365, McCain 173
NH-4
WA-11
VT-3
ME-4
MT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
OR-7
RI-4
WI -11
NY-33
ID-4
SD-3
MI-18
WY-3
CT-8
PA-23
NJ-15
IA-7
NE-5
OH-21
DE-3
NV-4
IL-22
IN-12
WV-5
UT-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-8
KY-8
CA-54
KS-6
MO-11
NC-14
DC-3
TN-11
OK-8
AR-6
SC-8
AZ-8
NM-5
MS-7
AL-9
GA-13
LA-9
TX-32
HI-4
Obama
McCain
FL-25

29. Changed Electorate 08-2012 Minority voters (80% Obama) UP 3% from 2008
White working class (41% Obama) DOWN from 2008 by 3%
Examples: Nevada minority vote UP 9% from 08
While white working class is DOWN 5%
Wisconsin : minorities UP 3% white working class DOWN 7%

30. Strategy & the 2012 Electoral College The battleground states for 2012-4 MT
ND-3
MN-10
NH-
OR-7 8 WI
NY-31
ID-4 4
WY-3 PA 3 IA 8
NE-5 OH 6 IN NV
IL-21 7
UT-5 3 -2
WV-5 VA CO 2
CA-55
KS-6
MO-11 -2 NC
TN-11 -5 5 6
OK-7
AR-6
SC-8 AZ -4 NM
MS-6
AL-9
GA-15
LA-9
TX-34 -- FL

32. Congressional Elections

33. The end

35. The end

36. Betting pools House

37. Betting pools Senate

38. The End
Thank You

39. Best Hopes for Changes from 2008-2012
AK-3
NH-4
Wash 11
VT-3
ME-4
MT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
OR-7
RI-4
WI -10
NY-31
ID-4
SD-3
MI-17
WY-3
CT-7
PA-20
NJ-15
IA-6
NE-5
OH-18
DE-3
NV-6
IL-21
IN-11
UT-5 WV
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9
KY-8
CA-55
KS-6
MO-10
NC-15
DC-3
TN-11
OK-7
AR-6
SC-8
AZ-10
NM-5
MS-6
AL-9
GA-15
LA-9
TX-38
HI-4
FL-29

40. Electoral College 2008 Wash 11 AK-3 NH-4 VT-3 MT-3 ND-3 MN-10 OR-7
ME-4
MT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
OR-7
RI-4
WI -10
NY-31
ID-4
SD-3
MI-17
WY-3
CT-7
PA-21
NJ-15
IA-7
NE-5
OH-20
DE-3
NV-5
IL-21
IN-11
UT-5 WV
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9
KY-8
CA-55
KS-6
MO-11
NC-15
DC-3
TN-11
OK-7
AR-6
SC-8
AZ-10
NM-5
MS-6
AL-9
GA-15
LA-9
TX-34
HI-4
FL-27

41. Romney

42. I was just going over the primary rules and polls today, and I noticed
>> that Romney has a huge advantage in the Winner Take All primaries
>> (Arizona, California, Florida, New Jersey, Utah). They account for
>> 375 delegates, and he leads (or has won) in almost all of these WTA
>> states. If he stays up in the polls in those states (as he currently
>> is) it will be very hard for Santorum to catch Romney in delegates,
>> even if Santorum wins a larger share of the vote in the primaries.
>> What are the chances that Santorum beats Romney in California?
>>
>> In this respect, the GOP primaries resemble the Gary Hart v. Walter
>> Mondale contest.

43. WAR
WAR 43