Short versus Long Term Forces in 2016 Texas Presidential Electorate Robert M. Stein Rice University November 2016

Texas Presidential Election Polling Date Sample Trump Clinton Margin CBS 11/Dixie Strategies 10/27 - 9/29 980 LV 52 39 Trump +13 Austin American-Statesman 10/22 - 10/24 800 LV 45 38 Trump +7 Texas Tribune/YouGov 10/14 - 10/23 959 LV 42 Trump +3 UH Hobby Center 10/7-10/15 1,000 LV 41

How much of the projected Presidential candidate’s vote shares are due to? The candidates and especially Trump? Trump’s candidacy has alienated Republican voters, specifically college educated women. Depressed Republican turnout because of expected Trump defeat. The shifting demographics of the Texas Electorate? Increasing number of Hispanic Democratic voters are replacing older Anglo Republican voters.

Likelihood of voting by Party (percent by column)

Partisan affiliation and Presidential Vote Choice (Percent by column) For who would | you vote? | PARTYID | Dem Ind Rep | Total --------------+---------------------------------+---------- Trump/Pence | 2.18 12.50 77.89 | 41.24 Clinton/Kaine | 80.39 30.36 4.96 | 39.14 Johnson/Weld | 1.94 12.50 4.75 | 3.99 Stein/Baraka | 1.45 3.57 0.21 | 0.94 None | 2.42 3.57 3.10 | 2.83 Don't know | 10.90 28.57 8.06 | 10.49 (REFUSED) | 0.73 8.93 1.03 | 1.36 Total | 100.00 100.00 100.00 | 100.00 There is only a two percentage point difference in Democrats’ and Republicans’ support of their respective Presidential candidates. Five percent of Republicans are voting for Clinton and two percent of Democrats are voting for Trump.

Partisan affiliation and Voter Evaluation of Presidential candidates An equal percent of Democrats and Republicans view the other party’s Presidential candidate as very unfavorable. A significant larger percent of Republicans view Trump as very unfavorable compared to only two percent of Democrats who have a very unfavorable view of Clinton.

Presidential vote choice among Republican men and women (Percent by column)

The Trump Tax: Summary Mixed evidence that the Trump candidacy is a dominant explanation for the narrow election margin in recent Texas polls Republicans (80%) are supporting Trump at the same rate than Democrats are supporting Clinton (78%). More Republican voters rate Trump unfavorably (13%) than Democrats rate Clinton unfavorably (3%). Republican women are less likely (75%) than Republican men (80%) to support Trump. Trump’s candidacy has not depressed likely Republican turnout (80%).

The Hispanic Vote Eligible Hispanic voters have not turnout out in proportions equal to their share of the registered vote in 2008 and 2012. Historically, Hispanic eligible and registered voters are significantly younger and accompanied by a small proportion of college graduates and homeownership; all correlates of the likelihood of voting.

Hispanic voters are less educated (percent by row).

Hispanic voters are younger

Hispanic voters do not have a history of voting that would predict they are likely Presidential voters.

Hispanics were more likely to report they are certain to vote in 2016 than African-Americans, Asians and less than Anglos.

http://bhcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2010-Texas-Hispanic-Voter-Profile.pdf

2008 Texas Presidential Election http://bhcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2010-Texas-Hispanic-Voter-Profile.pdfhttp://bhcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2010-Texas-Hispanic-Voter-Profile.pdf

The changing Texas Hispanic electorate Since 2008 and 2014 the size of the Texas Hispanic eligible electorate has grown from 4.5 million 4.8 million. Since 2008 the likelihood of registered Texas Hispanics voter voting has risen from 58% to 74%. The proportion of Hispanics voters 65+ is 11% compared to 22% Anglo voters 65+. The replacement of aging Anglo voters is likely to be disproportionately made up of Hispanic and Non-Anglo voters