Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist Crop Market Outlook Mar. 31, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 93.6 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 168.0 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 14,378 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 1,837 Imports 160 36 32 50 40 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,382 16,255 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,040 5,324 5,300 5,425 Ethanol 4,641 5,124 5,200 5,225 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,360 1,370 1,375 Exports 730 1,920 1,864 1,650 1,700 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,545 13,725 Ending Stocks 2,530 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.60 ?.?? Source: USDA-WAOB, adjusted for Mar. reports 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.2 76.8 83.3 82.7 82.2 Yield (bu./acre) 40.0 44.0 47.5 48.0 46.7 Production (mil. bu.) 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,929 3,796 Beg. Stocks 169 141 92 191 460 Imports 41 72 33 30 Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,150 4,286 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,870 1,900 Seed & Residual 105 107 145 130 125 Exports 1,317 1,638 1,843 1,690 1,825 Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,862 3,690 3,850 Ending Stocks 436 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 14.40 13.00 10.10 8.75 ?.?? Source: USDA-WAOB, adjusted for Mar. reports 3 3

Corn Prospective Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Prospective Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Change in Planted Area Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks

Current Corn Futures 3.64 3.57 3.48 Source: CME Group, 3/31/2016

Current Soybean Futures 8.80 8.79 8.74 Source: CME Group, 3/31/2016

2015/16 Crop Margins

2016/17 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/