NSLA AND BASIC EDUCATION SECTOR LEKGOTLA

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Presentation transcript:

NSLA AND BASIC EDUCATION SECTOR LEKGOTLA ANALYSIS OF THE 2016 NSC EXAMINATION RESULTS 23 January 2017

A SYSTEM ON THE RISE TIMSS 2015

Introduction

NSC Examination The education enterprise is a highly complex activity and the outcome is based on a multiplicity of factors. Hence, the quantification of the improvements in the system is an extremely challenging task. NSC examination is one of the most important barometers to evaluate the success of the sector. Primary purpose of the NSC examinations is to certify learners, but it can be used to monitor trends in performance, provided we understand the cohort differences.

NSC Examination (e) In terms of Action Plan to 2019, the following three key targets are directly measured through the performance in the NSC examinations: Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who become eligible for a Bachelor’s programme at University’; Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who pass Mathematics; and Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who pass Physical Science

The Class of 2016

NSC Full Time Enrolments: 2012 - 2016

2016 NSC Full Time Entered versus Wrote Province Entered 2016 Wrote 2016 (seven or more) Absent/ Incomplete Eastern Cape 92 755 82 902 9 853 Free State 28 901 26 786 2 115 Gauteng 112 164 103 829 8 335 KwaZulu-Natal 169 023 147 648 21 375 Limpopo 110 639 101 807 8 832 Mpumalanga 60 794 54 251 6 543 North West 35 403 32 045 3 358 Northern Cape 11 821 10 041 1 780 Western Cape 53 152 50 869 2 283 National 674 652 610 178 64 474

NSC Part Time Enrolments: 2012 - 2016

NSC 2016 Progressed Learners per Province Difference 2016-2015 Eastern Cape 12 304 14 289 1 985 Free State 8 187 6 990 -1 197 Gauteng 5 198 11 596 6 398 KwaZulu-Natal 10 633 26 046 15 413 Limpopo 13 227 22 256 9 029 Mpumalanga 5 228 14 086 8 858 North West 3 767 7 588 3 821 Northern Cape 2 280 2 506 226 Western Cape 4 847 3 403 -1 444 National 65 671 108 742 43 071

Historical Trends

The Number of Candidates Passing Matric since 1970

NSC Performance: 2010 to 2016 17

Youth having completed Grade 12 by province and age (2012-2014)

Overall Performance

Overall Performance – 2015 & 2016 (Progressed Learners Included) Province 2015 2016 % Difference Total Wrote Total Achieved % Achieved Ranking Eastern Cape 87 090 49 475 56.8 9 82 902 49 168 59.3 2.5 Free State 31 161 25 416 81.6 3 26 786 23 629 88.2 1 6.6 Gauteng 108 442 90 327 84.2 2 103 829 88 381 85.1 0.9 KwaZulu-Natal 162 658 98 761 60.7 8 147 648 98 032 66.4 7 5.7 Limpopo 101 575 66 946 65.9 101 807 63 595 62.5 -3.4 Mpumalanga 54 980 43 229 78.6 5 54 251 41 801 77.1 6 -1.6 North West 33 286 27 118 81.5 4 32 045 26 448 82.5 1.0 Northern Cape 11 623 8 064 69.4 10 041 7 902 78.7 9.3 Western Cape 53 721 45 489 84.7 50 869 43 716 85.9 1.2 NATIONAL 644 536 455 825 70.7   610 178 442 672 72.5 1.8

Progressed Learners Excluded Province 2015 2016 % Difference Total Wrote Total Achieved % Achieved Ranking EASTERN CAPE 75 317 46 829 62.2 8 73 739 46 655 63.3 9 1.1 FREE STATE 26 082 22 876 87.7 2 21 504 20 032 93.2 1 5.5 GAUTENG 103 870 89 237 85.9 3 96 425 83 862 87.0 KWAZULU-NATAL 152 579 93 997 61.6 134 665 93 537 69.5 7 7.9 LIMPOPO 88 524 63 454 71.7 85 858 58 586 68.2 -3.4 MPUMALANGA 49 888 40 939 82.1 5 45 647 37 105 81.3 6 -0.8 NORTH WEST 9 659 7 454 77.2 27 392 23 603 86.2 4 9.0 NORTHERN CAPE 29 743 24 996 84.0 8 811 7 243 82.2 -1.8 WESTERN CAPE 50 119 44 080 88.0 48 627 42 665 -0.2 NATIONAL 585 781 433 862 74.1   542 668 413 288 76.2 2.1

Progressed Learners Only Province 2015 2016 Difference Total Wrote Total Achieved % Achieved Ranking EASTERN CAPE 11 705 2 625 22.4 9 9 163 2 513 27.4 5.0 FREE STATE 5 105 2 600 50.9 2 5 282 3 597 68.1 1 17.2 GAUTENG 4 568 2 149 47.0 4 7 404 4 519 61.0 3 14.0 KWAZULU-NATAL 10 070 4 765 47.3 12 983 4 495 34.6 7 -12.7 LIMPOPO 13 022 3 492 26.8 8 15 949 5 009 31.4 4.6 MPUMALANGA 5 091 2 290 45.0 5 8 604 4 696 54.6 9.6 NORTH WEST 3 543 2 122 59.9 4 653 2 845 61.1 1.3 NORTHERN CAPE 1 963 613 31.2 1 230 659 53.6 22.3 WESTERN CAPE 3 589 1 404 39.1 6 2 242 1 051 46.9 7.8 NATIONAL 58 656 22 060 37.6   67 510 29 384 43.5 5.9

Overall Performance (Progressed Included (2016)

Progressed Learners Excluded

Progressed Learners Only

NSC Passes by Type of Qualification, 2016 Prov. Total Wrote Bachelor Diploma Higher Certificate NSC No. Achieved % Achieved EC 82 902 15 645 18.9 19 996 24.1 13 520 16.3 5 0.0 FS 26 786 9 596 35.82 10 244 38.2 3 767 14.1 1 GP 103 829 37 582 36.2 37 121 35.8 13 615 13.1 KZN 147 648 36 139 24.48 39 507 26.8 22 347 15.1 39 LP 101 807 18 762 18.43 23 544 23.1 21 281 20.9 7 MP 54 251 12 420 22.89 18 447 34 10 918 20.1 16 NW 32 045 8 820 27.52 11 177 34.9 6 450 NC 10 041 2 606 25.95 3 278 32.6 2 015 WC 50 869 20 804 40.9 16 305 32.1 6 573 12.9 NAT 610 178 162 374 26.6 179 619 29.4 100 486 16.5 68 19

Bachelor Pass Trend (Percentage): 2009 -2016

Bachelor Pass Trend (Numbers): 2009 - 2016 21

Bachelor Passes (Numbers) per Province: 2016 22

NSC Passes by Type of Qualification per Quintile: 2016 2015 2016 Quintiles Q 1-3 Q 4-5 No. of Bachelors 80 381 73 810 78 886 72 952 25

Performance based on Gender Male Female Province Wrote Achieved % Achieved EASTERN CAPE 37 116 22 955 61.8 45 786 26 213 57.3 FREE STATE 12 114 10 875 89.8 14 672 12 754 86.9 GAUTENG 47 016 40 479 86.1 56 813 47 902 84.3 KWAZULU-NATAL 68 028 45 468 66.8 79 620 52 564 66.0 LIMPOPO 46 292 30 580 66.1 55 515 33 015 59.5 MPUMALANGA 24 350 19 442 79.8 29 901 22 359 74.8 NORTH WEST 14 963 12 676 84.7 17 082 13 772 80.6 NORTHERN CAPE 4 552 3 639 79.9 5 489 4 263 77.7 WESTERN CAPE 22 195 19 428 87.5 28 674 24 288 NATIONAL 276 626 205 542 74.3 333 552 237 130 71.1

School Performance within different Percentage Categories 27

Schools performance within different percentage categories, 2015 - 2016 School Intervals  2015 2016 Total Number of school % of schools 0 - 19.9% 243 3.6 196 2.9 20 - 39.9% 775 11.4 671 9.8 40 to 59.9% 1 310 19.3 1 221 17.9 60 to 79.9% 1 813 26.8 1 873 27.5 80 to 100% 2 631 38.9 2 853 41.9 Exactly 0% 22 0.3 18 Exactly 100% 470 6.9 548 8.0 28

Schools that obtained 100% pass: 2012 - 2016 Province No of Schools Eastern Cape 7 Free State 12 Gauteng 32 KwaZulu-Natal 19 Limpopo 2 Mpumalanga 3 North West Northern Cape Western Cape 31 Total 111 31

School Performance by Quintiles 30

School performance by Quintile - 2016 Quintiles 0 - 19.9% 20 - 39.9% 40 - 59.9% 60 - 79.9% 80 - 100% Exactly 0% Exactly 100% Quintile 1 106 287 410 504 500 6 48 Quintile 2 41 189 383 536 493 5 47 Quintile 3 31 157 295 486 459 1 Quintile 4 2 10 57 168 365 55 Quintile 5 4 19 83 607 173 Total 180 647 1 164 1 777 2 424 12 354

Subject Performance 32

Candidates’ performance in selected subjects, 2011 – 2016 (at 30% level) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Accounting 65.6 65.7 68.0 59.6 69.5 Agricultural Sciences 73.7 80.7 82.6 76.9 75.4 Business Studies 77.4 81.9 77.9 75.7 Economics 72.8 73.9 68.9 68.2 65.3 Geography 75.8 80.0 81.3 77.0 76.5 History 86.0 87.1 86.3 84.0 Life Orientation 99.7 99.8 99.6 Life Sciences 73.8 70.4 70.5 Mathematical Literacy 87.4 84.1 71.4 71.3 Mathematics 54.0 59.1 53.5 49.1 51.1 Physical Sciences 61.3 67.4 61.5 58.6 62.0 33

Candidates’ performance in selected subjects, 2011 – 2016 (at 40% level) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Accounting 42.7 41.5 44.3 36.2 44.9 Agricultural Sciences 41.0 49.9 52.9 45.0 44.5 Business Studies 58.2 53.8 51.4 49.5 Economics 45.8 45.2 38.8 39.1 36.4 Geography 46.7 53.4 54.0 50.4 48.1 History 65.0 67.1 66.5 63.2 64.3 English FAL 98.8 99.0 97.8 96.9 96.0 Life Sciences 43.4 47.8 48.9 46.0 Mathematical Literacy 61.4 62.4 59.5 46.4 Mathematics 35.7 40.5 35.1 31.9 33.5 Physical Sciences 36.9 36.1 39.5 35

Mathematics achieved at 30% & 40% level, 2010 - 2016 37

Physical Sciences achieved at 30% & 40% level, 2010 - 2016 38

Candidates Performance in Home Languages (at 40% & above) 2014 - 2016

Number and percentage of distinctions in the 12 Key Subjects: 2015 and 2016   2015 2016 Subject Wrote Achieved with distinction (80% - 100%) % with Distinction Achieved with distinction (80% -100%) Accounting 140 474 5 820 4.1 128 853 6 576 5.1 Afrikaans First Add Language 86 987 5 629 6.5 83 883 6 167 7.4 Agricultural Sciences 104 251 305 0.3 106 386 326 Business Studies 247 822 5 783 2.3 234 894 4 999 2.1 Economics 165 642 1 309 0.8 155 907 1 586 1.0 English First Add Language 543 941 5 178 547 292 6 664 1.2 Geography 303 985 4 635 1.5 302 600 4 183 1.4 History 154 398 5 540 3.6 157 594 5 973 3.8 Life Sciences 348 075 9 325 2.7 347 662 9 203 2.6 Mathematical Literacy 388 845 6 130 1.6 361 865 4 364 Mathematics 263 903 7 791 3.0 265 810 8 070 Physical Sciences 193 189 5 903 3.1 192 618 7 043 3.7 38

District Performance 42

District performance by achievement interval and province: 2016 Total number of Districts 2016 Below 50% 50% to 59.9% 60% to 69.9% 70% to 79.9% 80% and above EC 23 5 4 10 3 1 FS GP 15 2 13 KZN 12 6 LP MP NW NC WC 8 Total (2016) 81 19 17 32 Total (2015) 14 29

Under-performing Districts   Total Wrote Number Achieved % Achieved Eastern Cape Idutywa 5 156 2 553 49.5 Lady Frere 1 633 809 Libode 7 222 3 465 47.9 Lusikisiki 4 202 1 878 44.7 Ngcobo 2 837 1 338 47.2

Performance of Part-Time Candidates 46

Candidates Enrolled/Wrote (Part time): 2015 - 2016   2015 2016 Province Name Total Entered Total Wrote Eastern Cape 19 312 12 618 20 847 13 819 Free State 3 470 2 118 3 775 2 430 Gauteng 39 181 28 837 42 025 32 675 KwaZulu-Natal 31 176 21 247 37 915 25 862 Limpopo 16 137 11 951 21 124 15 421 Mpumalanga 5 569 3 871 7 189 4 996 North West 3 386 2 711 3 884 3 164 Northern Cape 1 838 1 157 3 976 2 264 Western Cape 11 312 6 553 12 633 7 162 National 131 381 91 063 153 368 107 793 47

Performance in Selected subjects (Part time): 2015 - 2016 Total Wrote % Achieved Accounting 13 362 33.5 15 328 40.1 Agricultural Sciences 4 820 54.7 6 713 53.6 Business Studies 16 231 49.6 17 942 44.7 Economics 15 309 39.6 17 257 36.5 Geography 17 541 51.5 21 245 49.0 History 4 643 59.6 5 459 57.2 Life Orientation 2 480 98.0 1 879 99.0 Life Sciences 32 114 55.3 39 008 Mathematical Literacy 19 868 52.8 27 575 47.4 Mathematics 44 376 35.4 50 925 37.8 Physical Sciences 35 219 39.0 39 801 43.5 47

Significant Gains 46

Significant Gains (a) Increase in the number of candidates that wrote Mathematics (263 903 to 265 810). The percentage of candidates that passed Mathematics increased from 49.1% to 51.1%. The number of candidates that passed Mathematics at 40% increased by 10 034, from 2014. (d) In Mathematics 33 511 learners achieved a mark of 60% or more in the 2016 examinations. Of the increase of 1700 from 2015, 1308 are black African learners. (e) The percentage of candidates that passed Physical Science increased from 58.6% to 62% (f) The number of candidates that passed Physical Science at 40% increased by 14 012, from 2014.

Significant Gains (g) 2853 (41.9%) of the schools attained a pass percentage of 80% and above. (h) 1452 (59.9%) of the schools from quintile 1-3 attained a pass percentage of 80% and above. (i) 78 878 learners from quintiles 1-3 schools qualified for admission to Bachelor Studies. This is more than the number of learners from quintiles 4 and 5. (j) 32 of the 82 districts achieved a pass rate of 80% and above. (k) The number of districts attaining a pass rate of below 50% decreased from 8 to 5.

Inclusive Basket of Criteria

Inclusive Basket of Criteria Overall pass percentage Mathematics pass percentage Physical Sciences pass percentage Bachelor attainment percentage Distinction percentage Mathematics Participation rate Throughput rate

Weighting Indicator Weighting Factor Max Score 1. Overall Pass Percentage 35% 0.35 35 2. Percentage Passed Maths 10% 0.1 10 3. Percentage Passed Physical Sciences 4. Percentage Attained Bachelor Passes 15% 0.15 15 5. Percentage attained Distinctions 6. Mathematics Participation rate 7. Throughput rate Total 100% 1 100

Inclusive Basket of Criteria - 2016 Province Overall Pass Percentage % Mathematics Passes % Physical Sciences Passes % Bachelor Passes % Distinctions % Mathematics Participation Rate % Throughput Rate Inclusive Basket Score WESTERN CAPE 85.9 77.2 73.5 40.9 7.1 30.6 56.1 60.7 FREE STATE 88.2 71.4 75.5 35.8 4.2 38.6 42.0 59.4 GAUTENG 85.1 68.7 68.5 36.2 4.6 37.2 48.1 57.9 NORTH WEST 82.5 62.7 69.8 27.5 3.0 33.1 39.7 53.8 NORTHERN CAPE 78.7 61.1 57.2 26.0 2.1 27.6 44.7 50.7 LIMPOPO 62.5 54.0 62.3 18.4 42.8 33.3 44.1 MPUMALANGA 77.1 53.6 63.6 22.9 1.9 43.0 51.0 KWAZULU-NATAL 66.4 38.2 57.8 24.5 3.8 54.6 37.7 46.1 EASTERN CAPE 59.3 37.6 49.7 18.9 47.7 31.8 40.5 NATIONAL 72.5 51.3 62.0 26.6 3.5 43.4 40.1 49.4

Inclusive Basket Score

Mathematics Pass Percentage

Physical Sciences Pass Percentage

Bachelor Pass Percentage

Distinction Percentage

Mathematics Participation Rate

Throughput Rate (Number that wrote in Grade 12 compared to number that enrolled in Grade 10)

Eastern Cape

Free State

Gauteng

KwaZulu-Natal

Limpopo

Mpumalanga

North West

Northern Cape

Western Cape

Inclusive Basket First 40 Districts

Inclusive Basket – Second 41 Districts

Inclusive Basket of Criteria provides a more comprehensive account of the performance at provincial and district levels, since this score is a multi-indicator approach – (critical national indicators). This approach will re-direct the focus from the overall pass percentage to six other important criteria. This approach will ensure that schools and districts now focus on improving their performance in Mathematics, Physical Sciences, Bachelor passes, distinctions, Mathematics participation rate and the throughput rate.

School Based Assessment

Current Status Improvements in the implementation of School based assessment noted in 2016 especially at the Grade 12 level Grade 10 and 11 still lagging behind in quality and standard. (c) In 2016 the focus was on the following: Mediating the 2015 NSC Exam and SBA Comparative Analysis Finalisation of the national SBA Policy An audit if the SBA systems in all provinces Moderation of SBA tasks and Learner Evidence Development of a Guideline for the Conduct of Internal Examinations. Moderation of Practical Assessment Tasks and Oral Assessment. Setting of Common Assessment Tasks for Life Orientation

Key Challenges in 2016 and Proposed Interventions in 2017 Poor quality of some SBA tasks, or tasks of low cognitive level Over-dependence on past question papers or provincially/district based tasks. Training of subject advisors on development of assessment tasks Training of provincial chief markers on setting of question papers (Prep exams) Provision of SBA exemplars Variations in moderation systems at school, district, provincial and national levels. Report on audit of SBA systems to shared with PEDs. Mediate the Policy on quality assurance of SBA Assessment systems to support the implementation of PATs at provincial and district levels Conduct audit of PAT moderation system. Draft Guidelines for the moderation of PATs Monitor and moderate the implementation of PATs Computation and Capturing of SBA marks Audit of PEDS systems relating to computing and capturing SBA marks Evaluation of mark sheets/tools utilised Streamlining of processes across PEDs via circular/directives/norms Ensuring that SASAMS is CAPS compliant

Provincial Comparative Analysis – 2016 (SBA and Examination)   ALL Rejected %Rejected >15% % >15% <5% %<5% EC 10942 420 3.8 1457 13.3 5297 48.4 FS 4190 63 1.5 181 4.3 2654 63.3 GP 12510 104 0.8 682 5.5 8613 68.8 KZN 19325 540 2.8 2581 13.4 9500 49.2 LP 14818 913 6.2 1845 12.5 6804 45.9 MP 6799 209 3.1 712 10.5 3523 51.8 NC 1602 34 2.1 171 10.7 886 55.3 NW 4481 163 3.6 315 7.0 2594 57.9 WC 6042 28 0.5 228 3933 65.1 NATIONAL 80690 2474 8172 10.1 43804 54.3

Provincial Comparative Analysis – 2015 & 2016   Year ALL Rejected %Rejected >15% % >15% <5% %<5% EC 2015 10848 462 4.3 1852 17.1 4747 43.8 2016 10942 420 3.8 1457 13.3 5297 48.4 FS 4243 60 1.4 177 4.2 2806 66.1 4190 63 1.5 181 2654 63.3 GP 12288 113 0.9 1107 9.0 7928 64.5 12510 104 0.8 682 5.5 8613 68.8 KZN 19454 679 3.5 5311 27.3 6955 35.8 19325 540 2.8 2581 13.4 9500 49.2 LP 15019 1055 7.0 2533 16.9 6083 40.5 14818 913 6.2 1845 12.5 6804 45.9 MP 6828 225 3.3 959 14.0 3453 50.6 6799 209 3.1 712 10.5 3523 51.8 NC 1593 38 2.4 247 15.5 774 48.6 1602 34 2.1 171 10.7 886 55.3 NW 4373 163 3.7 509 11.6 2358 53.9 4481 3.6 315 2594 57.9 WC 6095 24 0.4 234 4282 70.3 6042 28 0.5 228 3933 65.1 NATIONAL 80741 2819 12929 16.0 39386 48.8 80690 2474 8172 10.1 43804 54.3

Comparative Analysis between SBA and Examination Marks: 2015 and 2016 The quality of internal assessment at schools is improving There has been a national decline of 0.4% (345 moderation records) of rejected marks from 2015 to 2016 In the category of >15 there has also been an improvement as the data shows a decline of 5.9% (4 757 moderation records) nationally

Conclusion

Conclusion Despite the criticisms against the NSC examinations, it remains a reliable indicator of performance of the system. There is a gradual increase in the cognitive demand of question papers and through the benchmarking process, our question papers are becoming internationally comparable. Closer working relationship with State Security Agencies to improve the security of the examination system. Exploring various options to improve the quality of marking, including E-marking. Strengthen SBA through exemplification.

Thank You