Data Tables for the OPO Technical Report August 2016

Figure 1: Ontario Installed Supply Mix in 2005 and

Data for Figure 1: Ontario Installed Supply Mix in 2005 and MW Nuclear11,39713,014 Natural Gas & Oil4,9769,852 Water7,9108,768 Solar/Wind/Bioenergy1347,068 Coal6,4340 Demand Response0690

Figure 2: Ontario Electricity Production in 2005 and

Data for Figure 2: Ontario Electricity Production in 2005 and TWh Nuclear Natural Gas & Oil Water Solar/Wind/Bioenergy Coal

Figure 3: Historical Ontario Energy Demand 6 Gross Demand is the total demand for electricity services in Ontario prior to the impact of conservation programs Net Demand is Ontario Gross Demand minus the impact of conservation programs Grid Demand is Ontario Net Demand minus the demand met by embedded generation. It is equal to the energy supplied by the bulk system to wholesale customers and local distribution companies

Data for Figure 3: Historical Ontario Energy Demand 7 TWh Gross Demand Conservation Net Demand Embedded Generation Grid Demand

Figure 4: Conservation Savings in

Figure 5: Demand Response Capacity in Peaksaver PLUS and CBDR can controlled by system operators. These programs are treated elsewhere as supply resources totalling 690 MW TOU pricing and ICI reflect customer response to prices. These programs are considered as part of the net demand forecast

Data for Figure 5: Demand Response Capacity in CategoryMW TOU59 ICI1,000 Peaksaver PLUS164 CBDR526

Figure 6: Electricity Sector GHG Emissions 11 Note: GHG emissions for 2015 is an estimate

Data for Figure 6: Electricity Sector GHG Emissions 12 MT CO 2 e Electricity Sector GHG Emissions

Figure 8: Ontario Net Energy Demand across Demand Outlooks 13

Data for Figure 8: Ontario Net Energy Demand across Demand Outlooks 14 Energy (TWh) Outlook A Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Energy (TWh) Outlook A Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D

Figure 9: Ontario Net Summer Peak Demand across Demand Outlooks 15

Data for Figure 9: Ontario Net Summer Peak Demand across Demand Outlooks 16 Summer Peak Demand (MW) Outlook A23,96523,97123,90023,70523,46523,21623,02922,87922,77722,62822,568 Outlook B23,96524,04624,08324,04123,99323,91623,88923,88123,89023,86823,918 Outlook C23,96524,04824,08824,10824,12424,11224,15224,21624,29824,35324,486 Outlook D23,96524,04824,08824,16624,24224,29124,39324,52024,66724,78824,987 Summer Peak Demand (MW) Outlook A22,45322,37222,29522,29222,25822,23122,19822,31722,43622,586 Outlook B23,88223,91823,94024,03024,08224,13324,17124,36924,56824,792 Outlook C24,54924,68024,80425,04925,55026,02226,19926,55126,90227,276 Outlook D25,44625,92126,12426,41026,66726,93727,19727,63328,07128,532

Figure 10: Ontario Net Winter Peak Demand across Demand Outlooks 17

Data for Figure 10: Ontario Net Winter Peak Demand across Demand Outlooks 18 Winter Peak Demand (MW) Outlook A22,15922,09322,02021,82521,57421,33821,14320,97620,86420,69420,602 Outlook B22,15922,14022,14322,07221,98521,89821,84121,79921,77821,718 Outlook C22,15922,19022,25122,31522,39522,50122,66122,86323,10523,32623,626 Outlook D22,15922,19022,25122,38522,56022,78323,08323,44223,86224,27324,779 Winter Peak Demand (MW) Outlook A20,48320,39420,31520,31620,29520,28220,26020,37520,48820,622 Outlook B21,65921,66821,67221,74621,79421,84421,87522,05222,22922,422 Outlook C23,91124,26524,63324,51325,08525,69526,33027,18528,14429,167 Outlook D24,74225,49226,27727,22628,29629,45130,68332,15833,71635,379

Table 1: Assumptions across Demand Outlooks 19 SectorOutlook AOutlook BOutlook COutlook D Residential (52 TWh in 2015) 48 TWh in TWh in 2035 Oil heating switches to heat pumps, electric space and water heating gain 25% of gas market share (58 TWh in 2035)* Oil heating switches to heat pumps, electric space and water heating gain 50% of gas market share (64TWh in 2035) Commercial (51 TWh in 2015) 49 TWh in TWh in 2035 Oil heating switches to heat pumps, electric space and water heating gain 25% of gas market share (63 TWh in 2035) Oil heating switches to heat pumps, electric space and water heating gain 50% of gas market share (69 TWh in 2035) Industrial (35 TWh in 2015) 29 TWh in TWh in % of 2012 fossil energy switches to electric equivalent (43 TWh in 2035) 10% of 2012 fossil energy switches to electric equivalent (51 TWh in 2035) Electric Vehicles (<1 TWh in 2015) 2 TWh in TWh in million electric vehicles (EVs) by 2035 (8 TWh in 2035) 2.4 million EVs by 2035 (8 TWh in 2035) Transit (<1 TWh in 2015) 1 TWh in 2035 Planned projects, (1 TWh in 2035) Other**5 TWh Total*** (143 TWh in 2015) 133 TWh in TWh in TWh in TWh in 2035 Note: Outlooks C and D assume the same economic drivers as Outlook B. * By 2035, of the number of natural gas fuelled space and water heating equipment being sold in Outlook B (due to existing equipment reaching end of life and new additions driven by growth in the residential and commercial sectors), 25 percent of this stock in Outlook C and 50 percent in Outlook D is replaced with air-source heat pumps. ** Others = Agriculture, Remote Communities, Generator Demand, IEI and Street Lighting *** Total may not add up due to rounding

Figure 11: Conservation Achievement and Outlook to Meet the 2013 LTEP Target 20

Data for Figure 11: Conservation Achievement and Outlook to Meet the 2013 LTEP Target 21 Savings (TWh) Codes and Standards (Implemented by 2015) Codes and Standards (Implemented 2016 and beyond) Historical program persistence ( ) Forecast savings from planned programs ( ) Planned savings from future programs & Codes and Standards Savings (TWh) Codes and Standards (Implemented by 2015) Codes and Standards (Implemented 2016 and beyond) Historical program persistence ( ) Forecast savings from planned programs ( ) Planned savings from future programs & Codes and Standards Savings (TWh) Codes and Standards (Implemented by 2015) Codes and Standards (Implemented 2016 and beyond) Historical program persistence ( ) Forecast savings from planned programs ( ) Planned savings from future programs & Codes and Standards

Figure 12: Outlook for Installed Capacity to

Data for Figure 12: Outlook for Installed Capacity to Installed Capacity (MW) Existing Supply38,41737,86837,51037,05635,30734,42534,28829,40528,62025,756 Committed, Not Yet Online 1,0781,6782,6552,8113,194 3,2303,2293,244 Directed Procurements ,5632,0472,2872,767 Expired Contracts ,4921,548 1,6843,8754,6614,689 Refurbished Nuclear ,7623,4654,346 Installed Capacity (MW) Existing Supply23,90323,78921,44017,59915,15514,25413,47112,44310,4019,345 Committed, Not Yet Online 3,244 3,2393,2383,021 2,9912,6962,517 Directed Procurements2,855 3,033 Expired Contracts5,7195,8327,37611,22112,84313,96114,74415,80318,14019,375 Refurbished Nuclear5,127 5,9006,722 7,544 8,366

Figure 13a: Available Supply at the Time of Peak Demand Relative to Total Resource Requirements (Summer) 24

Data for Figure 13a: Available Supply at the Time of Peak Demand Relative to Total Resource Requirements (Summer) 25 Capacity Contribution at Summer Peak (MW) Existing Supply30,12228,72428,47728,19826,33625,45625,33720,49719,79316,951 Refurbished Nuclear ,7563,453 Committed, Not Yet Online ,3052,1472,3602,4272,451 2,452 Directed Procurements Expired Contracts ,0871,2521,2631,3813,5604,2654,276 Capacity Contribution at Summer Peak (MW) Existing Supply15,55815,51014,66611,6019,5968,6828,1287,9047,5037,145 Refurbished Nuclear5,084 5,851 6,670 7,488 8,307 Committed, Not Yet Online1,952 1,9501,9491,8231,7521,7461,7261,701 Directed Procurements1,056 1,176 Expired Contracts4,8504,8984,9408,0099,19510,23510,86111,09111,51111,894 Resource Requirement at Summer Peak (MW) Outlook A28,07028,13027,71127,38328,18627,94427,76927,64927,47526,953 Outlook B28,15728,34528,10428,00029,00628,95028,94128,95128,92528,505 Outlook C28,13728,18328,20728,22529,21229,25829,33229,42929,49329,648 Outlook D28,13728,18328,27528,36329,42129,54029,68929,86130,00230,235 Resource Requirement at Summer Peak (MW) Outlook A26,82126,72826,63926,63626,59726,56526,52726,66425,80225,973 Outlook B28,46528,50528,53128,63528,69428,75328,79629,02428,25328,510 Outlook C29,72329,87630,02130,30730,89431,44531,65332,06531,47631,912 Outlook D30,77231,32731,56631,90032,20032,51732,82133,33132,84333,383

Figure 13b: Available Supply at the Time of Peak Demand Relative to Total Resource Requirements (Winter) 26

Data for Figure 13b: Available Supply at the Time of Peak Demand Relative to Total Resource Requirements (Winter) 27 Capacity Contribution at Winter Peak (MW) Existing Supply29,26828,44828,23927,98126,02025,98024,98320,69620,64917,057 Refurbished Nuclear ,7563,453 Committed, Not Yet Online ,2791,587 1,6141,6131,617 Directed Procurements Expired Contracts ,1001,1491,2673,4083,4564,216 Capacity Contribution at Winter Peak (MW)2,0262,0272,0282,0292,0302,0312,0322,0332,0342,035 Existing Supply16,45915,52515,47113,38510,3378,3668,1287,6337,3846,814 Refurbished Nuclear3,4535,084 5,8516,670 7,488 8,307 Committed, Not Yet Online2,117 2,1142,113 1,9061,9021,8951,790 Directed Procurements Expired Contracts4,8154,9295,0006,2719,32010,47210,91711,41611,67212,347 Resource Requirement at Winter Peak (MW) Outlook A25,87025,91725,51425,17625,98725,73725,54225,41125,21224,693 Outlook B25,92626,06325,80225,65726,64326,55426,50526,48026,41125,975 Outlook C25,96226,03326,10826,20227,32627,51427,74928,03328,29228,643 Outlook D25,96226,03326,19126,39527,65628,00728,42828,91829,39929,992 Resource Requirement at Winter Peak (MW) Outlook A24,55524,45324,36324,36424,33924,32524,29924,43123,56123,715 Outlook B25,90825,91925,92226,00826,06326,12026,15626,35925,56325,785 Outlook C28,97629,39029,82029,68030,34931,06331,80632,80632,92834,125 Outlook D29,94830,82631,74532,85434,10635,45736,89938,62539,44841,393

Figure 14: Installed Capacity of Future Contract Expirations 28

Data for Figure 14: Installed Capacity of Future Contract Expirations 29 (MW) Expiring Contracts - Natural Gas4497,1062,161 Expiring Contracts - Renewables2382,5505,993 TOTAL6879,6568,154

Figure 15: Electricity Supply Requirements in Outlooks C and D 30

Data for Figure 15: Electricity Supply Requirements in Outlooks C and D , Outlook C2035, Outlook D Annual Energy (TWh) Total Resource Requirement (MW)28,15734,12541,393

Table 2: Current Technology Characteristics 32 CapacityEnergy Operating Reserve Load Following Frequency Regulation Capacity Factor Contribution to Winter Peak Contribution to Summer Peak LUEC ($/MWh) ConservationYes No Depends on Measure $30-50 Demand ResponseYesNoYes LimitedN/A60-70%80-85%N/A Solar PVLimitedYesNoLimitedNo15%3-5%20-35%$ WindLimitedYesNoLimitedNo30-40%20-30%11%$ BioenergyYes LimitedNo40-80%85-90% $ StorageYesNoYes Depends on technology/ application Depends on technology/ application WaterpowerYes 30-70%67-75%63-71%$ NuclearYes NoLimitedNo70-95%90-95%95-99%$ Natural GasYes up to 65%95%89%$80-310

Figure 16: Installed Solar PV Cost Projections in Ontario 33

Installed Cost ($/kW) Residential Rooftop Solar PV (3-10 kW) 2,8282,6702,5212,3802,2462,2112,1762,1422,1092,075 Commercial Rooftop Solar PV (100 kW) 2,5922,4472,3102,1812,0592,0261,9951,9631,9321,902 Commercial Rooftop Solar PV (500 kW) 2,5022,3622,2302,1051,9871,9561,9261,8951,8661,836 Small-Scale Ground-Mounted Solar PV (500 kW) 2,6892,5602,4372,3202,2092,1402,0922,0462,0001,956 Utility-Scale Ground- Mounted Solar PV (> 5 MW) 1,8001,7141,6311,5531,4781,4321,4001,3691,3391,309 Installed Cost ($/kW) Residential Rooftop Solar PV (3-10 kW) 2,0562,0372,0181,9991,981 Commercial Rooftop Solar PV (100 kW) 1,8841,8671,8501,8321,815 Commercial Rooftop Solar PV (500 kW) 1,8191,8021,7851,7691,752 Small-Scale Ground-Mounted Solar PV (500 kW) 1,9141,8721,8321,7921,753 Utility-Scale Ground- Mounted Solar PV (> 5 MW) 1,2811,2531,2261,1991,173 Data for Figure 16: Installed Solar PV Cost Projections in Ontario 34

Figure 17: Existing Interconnections 35

Table 3: Status and Drivers of Transmission Projects in Outlook B 36 ProjectsStatus Drivers Maintaining Bulk System Reliability Addressing Regional Reliability and Adequacy Needs Achieving 2013 Long- Term Energy Plan (LTEP) Policy Objectives Facilitating Interconnections with Neighbouring Jurisdictions East-West Tie ExpansionExpected to be in service in 2020 XX Line to Pickle Lake Plan is complete; Expected to be in service in early XX Remote Community Connection Plan Draft technical report released; development work underway for connection of 16 communities; engagement with communities is ongoing. XX Northwest Bulk Transmission Line Hydro One is carrying out early development work to maintain the viability of the option. XX Supply to Essex County Transmission Reinforcement Expected In-service date of 2018 X West GTA Bulk reinforcement Plan is being finalized. X Guelph Area Transmission Refurbishment Expected to be in service in 2016 X Remedial Action Scheme (RAS) in Bruce and Northwest Under development. Northwest RAS targeted for late 2016 in-service; Bruce RAS early 2017 X Clarington 500/230kV transformers Expected to be in service in 2018 X Ottawa Area Transmission Reinforcement Project has been initiated; expected to be in service XX Richview to Manby Transmission Reinforcement Expected to be in service in 2020 X

Figure 18: Electricity Sector GHG Emissions in Outlook B 37

Data for Figure 18: Electricity Sector GHG Emissions in Outlook B 38 MT CO2e Electricity Sector GHG Emissions MT CO2e Forecast GHG Emissions (Outlook B) MT CO2e Forecast GHG Emissions (Outlook B)

Figure 19: Total Cost of Electricity Service in Outlook B 39

Data for Figure 19: Total Cost of Electricity Service in Outlook B 40 Total Cost of Electricity Service (2016$ Billions) Outlook B Total Cost of Electricity Service (2016$ Billions) Outlook B

Figure 20: Average Unit Cost of Electricity Service in Outlook B 41

Data for Figure 20: Average Unit Cost of Electricity Service in Outlook B Demand Outlook - B (TWh) Average Unit Cost - B (2016$/MWh) Demand Outlook - B (TWh) Average Unit Cost - B (2016$/MWh)

Figure 21: Cost of Electricity Service across Demand Outlooks 43

Data for Figure 21: Cost of Electricity Service across Demand Outlooks 44 Outlook AOutlook BOutlook COutlook D Minimum System Cost (2016$ Billions) Maximum System Cost (2016$ Billions) Minimum Unit Cost (2016$/MWh) Maximum Unit Cost (2016$/MWh) Energy Demand in 2035 (TWh)