National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola Special Briefing Tropical Storm Lee Special Briefing Tropical Storm Lee 1030 AM CDT Sunday 4 September 2011

Storm Reports Sat PM-Sun AM 8 to 11 inches of rain in spots across portions of SE MS, Coastal AL, and NW FL. Brief tornadoes produced localized damage in Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia County FL. Several reports of trees down, large limbs down, and minor damage to structures from wind gusts. Minor coastal flooding reported in Mobile and Escambia counties Bayou La Batre, Dog River area in AL, Fort Pickens Road flooded near Pensacola with 2 ft of water and sand. Several reports of wind gusts between 50 mph and 61 mph observed at several locations along the coastal counties (in heavy rain squalls moving through). NWS Doppler Radar Storm Total Precipitation 1 AM Thursday through 8 AM Sunday

Tropical Storm Lee Satellite Imagery Center of Lee inland over southern Louisiana. Next approaching eastern rain-band will move across SE Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle late today and tonight. It will likely add an additional 4 to 7 inches of rainfall to what we have already seen. Tropical storm force winds (>=39 mph) extend eastward 275 miles from the center. Center of Lee inland over southern Louisiana. Next approaching eastern rain-band will move across SE Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle late today and tonight. It will likely add an additional 4 to 7 inches of rainfall to what we have already seen. Tropical storm force winds (>=39 mph) extend eastward 275 miles from the center.

Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories Tropical Storm Warning Flash Flood Watch in effect all counties. Local Impact Forecast Statements will provide detailed impact information from the NWS

Local Impacts Statements

Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Track

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities

Heavy Rain Impacts Flooding threat continues through tonight and Monday as an additional 4 to 7 inches of rainfall will be possible. Flooding of small streams and poor draining areas probable. Several river systems will quickly rise to minor flood stage Monday into Tuesday. Bayou Sara (AL) Leaf River (MS) Tombigbee River (AL) Chickasawhay River (MS) Shoal River (FL) Waynesboro Wiggins Leakesville Mobile Gulf Shores Pensacola Destin Evergreen Andalusia Greenville Grove Hill Monroeville Butler NWS Mobile - Pensacola Projected Additional Rain Totals (SUN 4 SEP -TUE 6 SEP) Crestview

Tornado Impacts We will have to be alert for quick development of short lived tornadoes in stronger rotating thunderstorm cells in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Lee tonight into Sunday. Tornado Watch in effect. Expect the threat of brief tornadoes to continue into Monday. Movement of the cells will be generally from the south to the north.

Specific NWS Wind Forecast Tonight 6 PM CDT Sunday6 AM CDT Monday 35G50KT 25G45KT 15G35KT 20G35KT 25G35KT 15G25KT 30G45KT 35G50KT 25G40KT Winds 30 mph with gusts of 55 mph possible in squalls. Rain soaked grounds will result in some trees getting uprooted as the stronger rain squalls and thunderstorms move through. We will also see brief tornado development and minor structural damage with the wind squalls.

Specific NWS Wind Forecast Monday Noon CDT Monday6 PM CDT Monday 35G55KT 25G45KT 30G50KT 15G35KT 25G40KT 25G35KT 20G35KT 35G50KT 25G35KT Winds 30 mph with gusts of 55 mph possible in squalls. Rain soaked grounds will result in some trees getting uprooted as the stronger rain squalls and thunderstorms move through.

Specific NWS Wind Forecast Tuesday 6 AM CDT Tuesday6 PM CDT Tuesday 25G35KT 15G30KT 20G35KT 15G30KT 15G25KT 5G10KT 10G20KT 15G25KT 10G20KT Winds will become northwesterly and diminish during the day.

Coastal Flood and Beach Impacts LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS and breaking waves in the surf zone of 7 to 10 feet are expected through Monday. Large wave run-up to the dunes expected at the beaches during high tide in the early morning hours. Some minor beach erosion possible. Tides currently observed to be 2 to 3 feet above our normal astronomical tide. Minor COASTAL FLOODING of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible near the coast during period of high tide. High tide will occur early Monday morning. High Risk of Dangerous Rip Currents

Marine Impacts …Tropical Storm Warning Remains in Effect… South winds 25 to 35 knots with frequent gusts to 50 knots in squalls. Seas 10 to 15 feet. Conditions not likely improving significantly until Tuesday afternoon.

Projected Impact Assessment Sunday Through Monday For SE Mississippi, SW Alabama and NW Florida RainwaterFloodSurge Coastal Flood RipCurrentsBeachErosionWindTornado High Moderate High Moderate Extreme High Moderate Low None LowLow WFO Mobile

Central Alabama Hazards Today – Rain bands will reach farther north through the day, with amounts from inches. Wind gradually increasing. Concern for a few tropical tornadoes. Highest threat south of a Gainesville-Prattville-Eufaula line Monday & Tuesday – Best chance for heavy rain, strong winds and small tornadoes. Additional rain total from 2 inches far east to 8 inches across the west and north. Wind Advisory and Flash Flood Watch likely. Main concerns: Possible flash flooding in persistent locally heavy rain areas especially in urban areas Tropical tornadic development Sunday afternoon possibly into Tuesday Potential for more widespread river flooding by mid week. Today – Rain bands will reach farther north through the day, with amounts from inches. Wind gradually increasing. Concern for a few tropical tornadoes. Highest threat south of a Gainesville-Prattville-Eufaula line Monday & Tuesday – Best chance for heavy rain, strong winds and small tornadoes. Additional rain total from 2 inches far east to 8 inches across the west and north. Wind Advisory and Flash Flood Watch likely. Main concerns: Possible flash flooding in persistent locally heavy rain areas especially in urban areas Tropical tornadic development Sunday afternoon possibly into Tuesday Potential for more widespread river flooding by mid week.

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