11 – 12 March Halevy Heritage Hotel Bloemfontein

Mr Wessel Lemmer. Senior Economist: Market Research, (Grain South Africa)

Confinement of my presentation Expansion of the market to utilize the avail- able and potential production capacity Grain SA represents feedstock suppliers for the biofuels industry with regards to: GRAINS (Bio-ethanol)OILSEEDS (Biodiesel) White Maize (Excluded)Sunflower Yellow Maize (Excluded)Soyabean SorghumCanola WheatGroundnuts Barley & Triticale

Expectation: Biofuels not to be viewed as a curse to RSA society Motivation for the debate is; – To address the concerns of the UN Food Organization – That the food supply in Southern Africa may be at risk if farmland or crops be diverted in favour of biofuels production How significant is this concern for food security risk ? What is causing the risk to food supply in Southern Africa? What is the impact of food security FEARS on the availability of feedstock for biofuels production? What should be done to counter food security risk and to ensure feedstock supply to the biofuels industry? What strategies should be adopted – implemented?

HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE CONCERN FOR FOOD SECURITY RISK ? WHAT IS CAUSING THE RISK TO FOOD SUPPLY IN SOUTHERN AFRICA?

White maize: Where is it going?

White maize exports of ton to African countries with food security related issues Zimbabwe: tons (31%) Mozambique: tons (17%) Botswana: tons (16%) Kenia: tons (11%) Namibia: tons (6%) Lesotho: tons (5%) Tanzania: tons (3%) Kenia

Food security in Zimbabwe 439 thousand tons (31% of export)

Food Security in Mozambique 240 thousand tons (17% of export)

Food Security in Botswana Botswana: Maize Meal Sales Goes Up 20 January 2009 "We rely on South Africa for maize meal but if the need arises we will look at other suppliers in neighbouring countries like Namibia and Zambia. You must also understand that the problem is not isolated to Botswana but affects the whole region"

Food security in Namibia tons (6%) The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) found that nearly a third of Namibia's 1.8 million people lived on US$1 a day or less, but noted a sharp rise in households classified as "severely poor", or living on less than N$185 (US$19) per month.

Food security in Kenya ton (11%) KENYA: Agnes Ekelan, "I can only eat if I sell firewood" KENYA: Turkana at risk of further food shortages

WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF FOOD SECURITY RISK ON THE AVAILABILITY OF FEEDSTOCK FOR BIOFUELS PRODUCTION?

Limitations on feedstock production Limiting biofuels industrial strategy – Exclusion maize (food security concerns) and jatropha (environmental concerns) Licensing prerequisites – Current feedstock production by BEE suppliers – Focus on development of new producers (BEE) – Exit of commercial producers to be guaranteed – No biofuels industry – no demand – reasons for the industry not developing? Agricultural plan not being implemented and insufficient tariff policy Limited support to commercial producers

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE TO COUNTER FOOD SECURITY RISK AND TO ENSURE FEEDSTOCK SUPPLY TO THE BIOFUELS INDUSTRY?

WHAT STRATEGIES SHOULD BE ADOPTED – IMPLEMENTED?

Risks to future & adequate agricultural food & feedstock production due to Cost of imported inputs and mechanization Lack of incentives to producers Deteriorating infrastructure (E.g. Roads/rail Safex silo’s) Agricultural research capability decline Dearth of skilled researchers due to affirmative action policy Food surpluses and production capacity in developing countries reduce because of food aid Inappropriateness and lack of implementation of recommended policies

FEEDSTOCK SECURITY White maize Yellow Maize Sorghum Wheat Barley Sunflower Soyabean Canola

WHITE MAIZE BIO-ETHANOL FEESTOCK

White maize: Commercial production and consumption (‘000 ton)

White maize: Imports and exports (‘000 ton)

White maize: Cumulative Exports (million ton)

Production capacity: last six years 2,84 million ha 3,8 ton/ha 10,8 million ton

Available for domestic value adding 10,8 million ton Production 8,5 million ton Consumption 2,3 million ton Available

2,3 million ton surplus available 400 liter Ethanol 920 million liter 330 kg DDGS ton CO2 2,3 Million ton maize

Trendwise we export approximately 1,1 million tons annually (‘000 ton)

Available feedstock excluding this seasons exports to food security stricken neighbours 2,3 million ton Prod 1,3 million ton Exports 1,0 million ton Available

1,0 million ton available 400 liter Ethanol 400 million liter 330 kg DDGS ton CO2 1,0 Million ton maize

Number of plants One 150 million liter size plant needs tons of maize each Thus 2,7 or nearly 3 plants in need of tons of feedstock (maize)

YELLOW MAIZE BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK

Yellow maize: Commercial production and consumption (‘000 ton)

Yellow maize: Imports (‘000 ton)

SORGHUM BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK

Sorghum: Commercial production and consumption (‘000 ton)

Sorghum exports (‘000 tons)

WHEAT BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK

Wheat: Commercial production and consumption (‘000 ton)

Wheat: Imports and exports (‘000 ton)

BARLEY AND TRITICALE BIO-ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK

Barley: Production and consumption (‘000 ton)

Barley: Imports and exports (‘000 ton)

SUNFLOWER BIO-DIESEL FEEDSTOCK

Sunflower: Production and consumption ( ‘000 ton)

Sunflower: Imports and exports (‘000 ton)

SOYABEAN BIO-DIESEL FEEDSTOCK

Soyabean: Production and consumption (‘000 ton)

ton sojaboon invoere

Soyabean: Imports and exports (‘000 ton)

Soyabean: full fat & human consump- tion & crushed for oil and cake

CANOLA BIO-DIESEL FEEDSTOCK

Canola: Production and consumption

THANK YOU