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IMPACT OF HIGH FOOD PRICES ON PRODUCERS AND REQUIRED INTERVENTIONS John Purchase Agricultural Business Chamber (ABC) Gauteng Food Summit 10 & 11 July 2008
Introduction Causes of high food prices South African situation Competitiveness, Profitability and Confidence of Industry Investment situation and climate Interventions Conclusion
Causes of high food prices High agricultural commodity prices Global macro-economic factors - Strong economic growth, stimulating demand - Depreciation of the US dollar - Increased speculative transactions in markets Dynamics of the specific agricultural commodities Changes in government policies
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008 Oil MetalsAll Commodities Food Rising Commodity Prices (January 1990 = 100)
Oil Prices (US$/Barrel)
International fertilizer prices 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 FebAprJunAugOktDecFebAprJunAugOktDesFeb Rand per ton Ammonium DAPPotasiumUrea 2006 2007 2008
Mean Real GDP Growth (%) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 World Developed DevelopingChinaIndiaUSA 1975-90 1990-20002000-07 2009-17
End stocks and the Price of Wheat the past 10 years
USA Maize production, exports and ethanol use (MMT) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 ExportsMaize for ethanolMaize Production
Soya production, consumption and end stocks (MMT) 0 50 100 150 200 250 97/9898/9999/0000/0101/0202/0303/0404/0505/0606/0707/08 Production ConsumptionEnd stocks
Vegetable oil imports by China (MMT) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Million ton
South African situation Declining maize production area But significant maize yield increases (productivity increases) Maize Crop of ~12,0 MMT has helped to stabilize prices – need Extensive wheat and soya meal imports still a major concern
PRODUCTION YEARS Maize area planted in South Africa 1923/24 to 2006/07 Million hectares
PRODUCTION YEARS Ton/ha Mean yield of maize:1923/24 to 2006/07
C ompetitiveness, Profitability and Confidence of industry Increased competitiveness: Requires policies for adoption of quality and productivity improvements in order to exploit export potential, but also to maintain and grow local markets
Competitiveness : 1960 - 2007
Profitability of Sector
Agricultural Export and Import Volumes: 1998 - 2006
Agricultural trade balance: 1998 - 2006
Investment situation and climate Gross fixed capital formation has remained stagnant Capital stock in Agriculture has declined over the past decade, but showing signs of a turnaround due to improved profitability.
Gross fixed capital formation: Agriculture, forestry and fishing: 1994-2006 R million
74000 75000 76000 77000 78000 79000 80000 81000 82000 199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 Year R Million Capital Stock in Agriculture (Constant 2000 prices): 1995 - 2007
Constraints and Challenges to Investment in Agribusiness Limited global competitiveness and profitability (High input costs, especially derived from energy costs!) Skewed participation and access Not sufficiently adequate support and delivery systems Often poor and unsustainable management of natural resources Governance and entrepreneurship – public and private Knowledge and innovation for productivity/new products International cooperation, e.g. trade agreements, etc. Infrastructure Safety and security Traditionally, low investor confidence, but changing
Defining confidence Confidence is in effect, a belief, a self-assurance in one’s own ability. It is essentially a feeling of having an expectation of success (Vealey, 2001). Business confidence is a belief, an assurance in the business environment, company’s resources and in the business’s ability to compete (ABC, 2001).
Trends in Agribusiness Confidence : 2001 - 2007
Short Term Interventions Agree wholeheartedly that Government needs to support the vulnerable and poorest of the poor, e.g. food stamps, starter packs, feeding schemes, etc.
Medium and long term interventions Government to create an enabling (market) policy environment for entrepreneurs to exploit opportunity Investment in general infrastructure in rural areas, but also in agricultural infrastructure Technology development and transfer needs to be improved through investment and bringing top students into this environment
Medium and long term interventions Major investment in skills development Improve access to capital and facilitate financing of agricultural production Establish improved information systems, with improved communication Ensure sustainable resource management Improved institutional support services by both public and private sector
Conclusion Food price crisis is a global phenomenon and complex Holds many threats to society, especially to the poorest of the poor and most vulnerable of society Opportunities are however certainly increasing across whole industry
Conclusion Global economy changing rapidly Global food and agriculture changing rapidly Food crisis will challenge conventional thinking across whole value chains Sustainability: Less intensive energy systems with Conservation Agriculture
Conclusion Create confidence, competitiveness and profitability in the sector!
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