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SA Economic Indicators Report updated:April 2016 Next update:May 2016.

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Presentation on theme: "SA Economic Indicators Report updated:April 2016 Next update:May 2016."— Presentation transcript:

1 SA Economic Indicators Report updated:April 2016 Next update:May 2016

2 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | How to read this report Depending on the indicator itself, data is released by the various institutions on a daily, monthly or quarterly basis. The frequency and release date has been indicated at the foot of each slide, next to the data source. These dates are indicative however, since the institutions may publish the data with a delay. Data lag: Data availability varies according to the data source, at times with a lag of a couple of months. e.g. Retail Trade Sales for July 2015 were released with a two-month lag in September 2015 GDP figures for Q2/2015 were released two months after Q2 (i.e. in August 2015) Readers are reminded to bear this data lag in mind when looking for parallels between indicators. It might therefore be necessary to go back to previous months’ reports in order to correctly analyse indicators over the same reporting periods. SA Economic Indicators What is the SA Economic Indicators report? Ti’s SA Economic Indicators report is a clear and easy-to-read view of the most currently available data for South Africa’s key economic indicators. Produced on a monthly basis by Ti Research, it draws on official information from various public and private institutions. The report is released in the first week of each new month, reporting on the available data up to and including the last day of the previous month. Page 2

3 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | SA Economic Indicators Input Prices | Fuel – March 2011 to March 2016 Page 3 SOURCE: Department of Energy | Frequency: Daily Drop in price of Brent Crude; full effect not felt due to depreciation of exchange rate

4 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | SA Economic Indicators Input Prices | Oilseed – Three-Year View Page 4 Drought in the US and a weak Rand pushes prices up dramatically Soybean: used in food manu- facture. Significant and cheap source of protein for animal feed. Vegetable oils: major ingredient in foods and personal care products. NOTES: 1. Oilseed is defined as any of several seeds from cultivated crops yielding oil, e.g. sunflower, peanut, or soybean. For the purposes of this report, soybean and sunflower prices are analysed SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Quarterly – ABSA data elaborated by Ti A greater than expected harvest yield pushes prices down

5 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | SA Economic Indicators Input Prices | Oilseed – Three-Month View Page 5 * SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: First week of successive month *NOTE: Source data for the month of March 2016 unavailable at time of release. March figures will be included in the next edition.

6 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | SA Economic Indicators Input Prices | Grains 1 (Maize & Wheat) – Three-Year View Page 6 NOTE: 1. Grains is defined as wheat, maize or any other cultivated cereal crop used as food 2. Yellow maize is predominantly used in animal feed 3. White maize is a staple food in South Africa and used to some degree in animal feed SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Quarterly – FNB data elaborated by Ti Prices of yellow maize & white maize increases dramatically due to adverse global weather The biggest harvest in 30 years sees maize prices decline significantly Further increase in maize forecast due to ongoing drought

7 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | SA Economic Indicators Input Prices | Grains (Maize, Wheat) – Three-Month View Page 7 SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: First week of successive month *NOTE: Source data for the month of March 2016 unavailable at time of release. March figures will be included in the next edition.

8 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | SA Economic Indicators Input Prices | Beef & Poultry – Three-Year View Page 8 SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Quarterly – ABSA data elaborated by Ti Meat prices increase due to high feed prices Beef prices drop due to high volumes and low demand Beef prices gradually rise in line with demand

9 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | SA Economic Indicators Input Prices | Beef & Poultry – Three-Month View Page 9 * SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: First week of successive month *NOTE: Source data for the month of March 2016 unavailable at time of release. March figures will be included in the next edition.

10 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | SA Economic Indicators Input Prices | Vegetables – Three-Year View Page 10 SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Quarterly – ABSA data elaborated by Ti Adverse weather increases prices

11 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | SA Economic Indicators Input Prices | Vegetables – Three-Month View Page 11 SOURCE: ABSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: First week of successive month *NOTE: Source data for the month of March 2016 unavailable at time of release. March figures will be included in the next edition. *

12 SA Economic Indicators Updated to end March 2016 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ © 2016 | SA Economic Indicators Input Prices COMMENTARY Fuel: −The petrol price in March decreased by -69c while diesel and illuminating paraffin increased by +15c and +17c respectively Food* : −Fresh whole chicken and frozen whole chicken prices saw a slight increase, with prices expected to continue to move sideways with the possibility of moving upwards due to increased demand closer to Easter −Meat prices are starting to feel the impact of higher feed costs as a result of the drought −Due to the weak rand, the possibility of a further increase in the wheat tariff and the low maize crop yield due to the drought, grain prices could see an increase in the near future −Maize prices continue to increase due to the greater need for imports – planting season has passed, and only 60 to 70% of the long-term area has been planted. The regional need for imports is expected to exceed five tons. Follow up rainfall is needed to improve the growing conditions but new season prices remain high due to the shortage of maize in the coming season −Sunflower oil is trading at a premium to soybean oil – however the price of sunflower oil is expected to decline in the upcoming months due to an increase in plantings −Vegetable prices have continued to display their typical movement in response to demand and volumes, with the most volatility seen in tomatoes. Tomatoes have seen a radical decrease during the month of February, with only a slight increase in production not accounting for the drastic price decrease −Potato prices are expected to remain high in the next few weeks as a result of the low supply caused by the heat and drought *NOTE: Source data for the month of March 2016 unavailable at time of release. Food commentary is thus for the month of February 2016. Page 12

13 Maryla Masojada|Head Analyst Tarryn Butler|Senior Retail Analyst Tabang Mbenge|Junior Retail Analyst

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