1. Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow, Energy and Climate Stockholm Environment Institute Global and Regional Bio-ethanol Markets sugarcane and sweet sorghum in southern Africa EUROPEAN COMMISSION Research Directorate-General Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa (CARENSA) www.carensa.net AU/UNIDO/Brazil Seminar Sustainable Biofuels Development in Africa: Opportunities and Challenges 31 July 2007

2. Overview of Presentation s Energy-Environment-Development Driving Forces s North-South-South collaboration & International Trade s SSA has highest bioenergy potential among world regions s Productive Biofuel crops: sugarcane and sweet sorghum s GHG emissions s Employment generation s Global market shares s Focus on southern Africa (SADC) s Capacity of existing factories: reaching economies-of-scale s Geographic Information Systems Analysis – potential s Scenarios for future production and blending s Export potential s CARENSA: an International Network/Partnership

3. Multi-product, multi-sector strategies to promote sustainable development and enhance global competitiveness Sustainable Development Strategies Bio- services Cogeneration Biofuels Environmental and Social Impacts Global Competitiveness Techno-economic options

4. Energy-Environment-Development driving forces for bio- energy development and North-South-South Collaboration s Rural development - creation of sustainable livelihoods s Relieving resource pressures and stresses s Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration s Energy security: local – regional – global s Rural health issues - indoor air s Urban health issues – lead, air quality s future competitiveness of agro-industries s Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits s Developing countries looking for foreign investment through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) s Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile market s Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification

5. Bio-energy production potential in 2050 for different scenarios Potential in Oceania is 4-6 times projected primary energy use Source: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski – March 2004 A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: analysis of the regional availability of biomass resources for export in relation to underlying factors, Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University, NWS-E-2004-109.

6. Comparison of biofuel yields Crop Seed yield (t/ha) Crop yield (t/ha) Biofuel yield (litre/ha) Energy yield (GJ/ha) Sugarcane (juice) 1007500157.5 Palm oil9800703000105.0 Sweet sorghum 60420088.2 Maize7250052.5 Jatropha74070024.5 Soybean48050017.5

7. GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel

8. Employment Generation and Sustainable Livelihoods (calculations are for Brazil) Source: Goldemberg, Jose (2002)

9. The case of Sugar Cane Resources

10. Shares of global sugarcane production, 2004

11. Ethanol Production

12. Global Scenarios in 2030 for Ethanol blending **10% gasoline + 3% diesel of IEA 2030 Projection = 276 bl **Scenario E4 exceeds this projected blending market!!

13. Potential Trade Balances (in the absence of major trade barriers) for fuel ethanol in the medium-term (2025-2030) Brazil: net exporter U.S.: net importer Other N & S America: self-sufficient China: net importer India: self-sufficient SE Asia: net exporter EU: net importer Western Africa: self-sufficient Southern and Eastern Africa: net exporter

14. Import Duties on Ethanol are High in Many IEA Countries Note: No duties in Japan and New Zealand

15. Southern African Development Community (SADC)

16. Land Use Summary for SADC and other selected countries/regions

17. Shares of SADC sugarcane production

18. High crop productivity in some SADC countries

19. Characteristics of existing sugar factories and potential ethanol supply Factory characteristics and/or feedstock supply Ethanol Production (Million litres) from Size Category Number of factories Avg. Capacity tc/hr Total prod. ktc/yr Avg. ann. Prod. ktc/yr C- molasses A/B molasses Cane juice > 2 mtc/year44699244231183185693 1-2 mtc/year163052306415382084611730 < 1 mtc/year20167885252180177664 Total402584115911433708233087 Additional cane as feedstock40085 3618023006 Total potential supply81244 73116256093 Gasoline Equivalent 51211374265

20. Existing Factories: Ethanol Surpluses/deficits with Production from C-molasses only and E5 Ethanol Demand (million litres)

21. Rainfall and Areas suitable for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Source: UKwZN 2005, South Africa

22. Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia Source: UKwZN 2005, South Africa

23. Land suitability for high input levels: Sweet Sorghum production in Africa Source: FAO

24. Land suitability for sweet sorghum

26. Scenarios for SADC ethanol supply and demand

27. Potential supply for export (million litres)

28. Area required for cane and sweet sorghum (kha) Country/Year20102025 Average Annual Change Malawi893029% Mozambique859348410% South Africa311285-1% Swaziland43420% Tanzania21280210% Zambia385155510% Zimbabwe47602% Other SADC2082823% SADC total215568139%

29. Some concluding thoughts Significant potential for global biofuels expansion in SADC and elsewhere to meet both development and environment goals Bio-ethanol export potential from southern Africa is significant Large scale via exports may be needed to be competitive North-South-South cooperation needed to develop market Transition from sugar support schemes to biofuels trade Exploit SSA comparative advantage Biofuels and other bio-commodities are value-added products Amount of land needed is small when productive crops such as sugarcane and sweet sorghum are used Subsidies for inefficient biofuels (e.g. corn in U.S.) are harmful to global economy AND the environment Need more detailed economic analysis of production and trade Assessment of impacts on food supply & food security needed

30. Thanks to: AU and UNIDO for opportunity to attend this seminar EC and Sida - for financial support to CARENSA Our International Partners – for their hard work EUROPEAN COMMISSION Research Directorate-General For more info: www.carensa.net