TOWARDS DEVELOPMENT OF THORPEX AFRICA PLAN Andre KAMGA FOAMOUHOUE ACMAD For THORPEX AFRICA REGIONAL COMMITTEE 88 th AMS Annual meeting, Jan 20-24, New Orleans, USA Symposium on Linkages among Societal Benefits, Prediction Systems and Process Studies for 1–14- day Weather Forecasts

Challenges of THORPEX Africa Investment in high impact weather observing system very low Africa highly venerable Limited use of information and communication technology Monitoring forecasting systems not regular, strong interactions with extratropics, teleconnections Forecasts and early warnings highly uncertain

Motivation Capitalize on existing national, regional and global initiatives Shape the profile of 21st century forecasting offices in Africa Meet the needs of African society, economy and environment

GOAL Improve Africa high impact weather forecasts and warnings Improve applications and realize benefits for health, water and disaster management, agriculture and food security, transportation, Energy

Objectives  Share the outcomes of Thorpex Africa planning meetings  Highlight planned activities and required collaboration at international level Discuss with US Thorpex community and other international partners to adapt existing Africa programs ( training, infrastructure, research, operations) to better meet Thorpex Africa goal and objectives

Challenges of THORPEX Africa Investment in high impact weather observing system very low Africa highly venerable Limited use of information and communication technology Monitoring forecasting systems not regular, strong interactions with extra tropics, teleconnections Forecasts and early warnings highly uncertain

Major Goal Improve high impact weather forecasts and applications in the following key sectors: oDisaster/water management oAgriculture oEnergy production and distribution oAviation oHeath and Fishery industry

THORPEX AFRICA OBJECTIVES  Promote low cost observing and telecommunication systems and strategies in Africa  Improve understanding and modeling of high impact weather related processes  Assess and improve prediction of high impact weather

 Demonstrate the performance and benefits of current forecasting systems with a seamless approach  Build African high impact weather information system given the advances in ICTs  Train and develop infrastructure for collection,control, archive, process and analyze data

Thorpex Africa activities in 2007 Two planning meetings in Feb and Nov 2007 that delivered: the science plan Priority activities for the implementation plan An organizational structure ( The Thorpex Africa Regional Committee) A network of organizations and the partnership to implement the plan Link to WMO-RA1

SERA activities Demo project for health and food security Integrated demo project for the identified key sectors ( disaster, water, food, health, agriculture, transportation)

SERA continue Training and forecast demonstration for Disaster /water management ( 2008 for West Central Africa, extended in 2009 for east and north Africa, Underway for southern Africa) Forecast demonstration for Energy ( wind and hydropower) production and distribution

SERA continue  Research/development on : Better communication of forecast uncertainties and needs specific user relevant verifications, assessments of cost and benefits of forecast improvements,  Training on and use of EPS,  Building information system for high impact weather (forecasts, impacts data, …)

OS/DAOS activities Promote Field campaigns ( AMMA, …), high impact weather data rescue and statistical analysis ( MEDEX, SH Thorpex, …) Identify biases in sonde Obs using field campaign data, develop and test bias correction algorithms Prepare special regional/global reanalyses for intensive observing periods Calibrate/validate satellite data with Field campaign observations

Assess the impact of Field campaign data ( radiosonde, dropsonde, GPSs, AMDAR….) and bias corrections on operational analyses and forecasts of high impact weather in Africa Promote data denial experiments to build optimal observing networks Collaborate with CLIMDEV, AMESD, GEOSS Enhance the use of new communication technology ( IT, cel phones, satellites, RANET, MSG, …) Partners ( AMMA, CLIMDEV, RIPIECSA, GEOSS )

PDP activities Improve and better represent processes and phenomena leading to high impact weather Synthesis of previous work on processes and catalog of African high impact weather ( contrib to information system) Develop or improve conceptual models representing the impacts of ( ENSO, NAO, MJO, tropical or equatorial waves, …) on high impact weather ( i.e easterly waves/tropical cyclone, deep convection and heavy rains, …)

PDP continue Use midlatutude forecasting systems monitoring products for Northern and southern tips of Africa Capitalize and extend performance monitoring systems under development in AMMA-Thorpex WG for the tropical regions Evaluate prediction systems ( deterministic, EPS) for specific high impact weather ( heavy rains or floods, early:late withdrawal, dry/wet spells, cold and heat waves) and document theirs strengths and weaknesses

PDP continue Build capacity to develop, evaluate and use LAMs in Africa. Promote assessment of predictability limits for African high impact weather

Cross cutting activities  High impact weather information system inventory of high impact weather and impacts data, documentation on accuracy, skill, strengths and weaknesses of forecasting tools, training and education materials, best practices, success stories, standards, procedures, publications and reports )  Infrastructure development( ICT) and capacity building for OS/DAOS, PDP, SERA

Collaboration expected with: UCAR Africa initiative to build/use COMET modules for African high impact weather US THORPEX to: -promote Thorpex Africa activities in UCAR and member institutions -Facilitate support for Thorpex Africa training and forecast demonstrations ( with NCEP forecasts and NOAA international activities, UCAR and AMS funding potentials). - collaborate with Thorpex Africa on Atlantic Tropical cyclones, multiscale deep convection organization and flooding events

Thanks