UNCLASSIFIED 1 JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER LCDR Sarah Follett JTWC Operations Officer Mission Overview

UNCLASSIFIED tropical cyclones in 10 years … A clear and present threat… Tropical Cyclone Tracks ( ) WHY ARE WE HERE?

UNCLASSIFIED 3  Mission  Organization  Area of Responsibility  Satellite Recon  JTWC Products  2010 Cyclone Activity  Cyclone Tracks – Climatology  Error Statistics  Closing Thoughts  Questions OVERVIEW

UNCLASSIFIED 4 BACKGROUND  Established in 1959 to protect United States Department of Defense personnel and assets Operated from Nimitz Hill, Guam BRAC decision moved JTWC to Pearl Harbor  Little ‘j’ organization – no joint billetts  United States Air Force provides reconnaissance and forecasters  United States Navy provides facility, equipment, and forecasters  2 person team standing 12 hour watches

UNCLASSIFIED 5 MISSION Provide tropical cyclone forecast and warning support for United States Department of Defense, United States Department of State and United States Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command Airmen from the 18th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron tow an F-15 Eagle into a protective aircraft shelter in preparation for Typhoon Man-Yi 12 Jul 07 at Kadena Air Base, Japan. (Source: U.S. Air Force/A1C Kasey Zickmund)

UNCLASSIFIED 6 ORGANIZATION Tech Services Tech USAF Civilian Chief, Technical Services USAF Civilian Director USAF Civilian Technical Advisor USN Civilian Typhoon Duty Officer USAF Civilian Operations Officer USN O-4 Typhoon Duty Officer USN O-2 Typhoon Duty Officer USAF Civilian Typhoon Duty Officer USAF Civilian Typhoon Duty Officer USN O-3 Typhoon Duty Officer USN O-3 Satellite Analyst USAF E-5 Satellite Analyst USAF Civilian Satellite Operations USAF O-3 SATOPS, NCOIC USAF E-7 Satellite Analyst USAF E-5 Satellite Analyst USAF Civilian Satellite Analyst USAF E-6 Satellite Analyst USAF E-6 CO, NMFC/JTWC Navy O-6 17 th OWS/CC USAF O-5

UNCLASSIFIED JTWC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY 33% 8% 11%13% 7% 1 7% RSMC Miami * Including WMO-sponsored Regional Specialized Meteorology Centers (RSMC) and percent of tropical cyclones by region

UNCLASSIFIED 8 SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE Direct Readout Sites Lajes Field GOES-12 Sembach MET-7 Kadena FY-2D Andersen MTSAT Elmendorf GOES-11 Valley Forge GOES-12 TEST SITE NOT OPERATIONAL Hickam MTSAT METEOSAT-7 63 o E MTSAT-1R/2R 140 o E / 145 o E GOES-11 (W) 130 o W Fen-Yung 2D 105 o E GOES-12 (E) 75 o W METEOSAT-8 0 o

UNCLASSIFIED 9 SATELLITE RECONASIANCE USAF Polar Orbiting (LEO) Direct Readout Sites Andersen Current Polar Orbit (LEO) Footprint (~ 30 passes/day) Kadena Lajes Sembach Hickam Diego Garcia Learmouth Future Polar Orbit (LEO) Sites (~ 30 passes/day) Qatar

UNCLASSIFIED SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE Fixes by Agency (Total: 9,567) 2010 Station Fixes (All Agencies) 6,334 2,

UNCLASSIFIED SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE Fixes by JTWC (Total: 6,334) 2010 Station Fixes (JTWC only) 3,129 Microwave Fixes

UNCLASSIFIED Significant Tropical Weather Advisories (ABPW & ABIO) Tropical Cyclone Position/Intensity Fixes JTWC ANALYSIS PRODUCTS

UNCLASSIFIED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY Low/Medium/High Areas - Issued 0600Z/1800Z - Contains info on: -- Tropical Cyclones in warning or TCFA status -- Disturbances or “Suspect Areas” being monitored for potential development

UNCLASSIFIED POSITION & INTENSITY FIXES - Infrared/Enhanced & Infrared/Visible imagery fixes issued every 3 hours -- Position and intensity 0530Z + every 6 hours -- Position only 0230Z + every 6 hours - Microwave imagery fixes as imagery is available

UNCLASSIFIED TROPICAL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS 00Z and 12Z analysis of surface and upper level streamlines

UNCLASSIFIED JTWC FORECAST PRODUCTS Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 3 Hourly Updates Tropical Cyclone Warning

UNCLASSIFIED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (Pre-Warning) - Issued as required - Used to advise expected TC formation within hours - Provides preliminary expected movement -- Circle  nearly stationary -- Box  movement along centerline of box

UNCLASSIFIED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING - Issued 4 times per day NLT 03/09/15/21Z hour (5-day) forecast - Contains track, 34/50/64 knot wind radii, area of 34 knot wind potential (hatched area), closest points of approach, and bearing/distance

UNCLASSIFIED 19 TC PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE - Issued for Western Pacific cyclones - Issued every 12 hours Z and 1500Z -- Not issued for a final warning - Intended for METOC personnel - Standard format -- Analysis -- Significant changes -- Short and medium range forcast -- Long range forecast (if applicable) -- Model analysis/discussion - Contains more detailed info on TC analysis, forecast reasoning, model guidance assessment, confidence, or alternate scenario

UNCLASSIFIED 3 HOUR JT- UPDATED POSITION (JTUP) - Created when a storm is 180nm from: -- Sasebo -- Kanto Plain -- Okinawa -- Misawa -- Cheju Island -- Guam - Created when above areas are at TCCOR II or higher. - Analysis for 03Z, 09Z, 15Z and 21Z positions between warning times.

UNCLASSIFIED 21 DCO CONFERENCE CALL - Available to operational forecasters via DCO at 2130Z when the JTWC 72-hr 35kt wind radii area falls on major DoD concentration areas Discussion covers synoptic picture, storm analysis, forecast track, forecast intensity, track uncertainty, etc. - Discussion does not cover TCCOR - JTWC provides conference call room: Participation is highly encouraged

UNCLASSIFIED 22 TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY NW Pacific NW Pacific 2006: : : : : : : : : : Yr avg: 31 S. Indian Ocean & W. Australia Region 2006: : : : : Yr avg: 18 South Pacific & E. Australia Region 2006: : : : : Yr avg: 10 C Pacific C Pacific 2006: : : : : : : : : : 1 25 Yr avg: 2 25 Yr avg: 2 NE Pacific NE Pacific 2006: : : : : : : : : : Yr avg: 18 Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2006: : : : : : : : : : 5 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5

UNCLASSIFIED Developing cyclone Weak cyclones hard to locate TD to TS intensity TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGES Formation Guam (Micronesia)

UNCLASSIFIED Near Okinawa, Taiwan, Luzon At or near maximum intensity Super Typhoon area Recurvature and/or erratic motion area (slow motion) TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGES Maturation

UNCLASSIFIED North of Okinawa TC Weakening Acceleration: stronger winds on right side Extratropical transition can also occur TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGES Dissipation

UNCLASSIFIED JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr Goal

UNCLASSIFIED JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr Goal

UNCLASSIFIED JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC Hours)

UNCLASSIFIED HIGHLIGHTS Research & Development Operations Continuity of Operations Capability (COOP) Low/Medium/High Suspect Area Designation Process Improvement w/input from Field Units ATCF Version Update 2012 Tropical Cyclone Conference Research & Science Intensity Model(s) Improvements Impact of Typhoons on the Oceans in the Pacific/Tropical Cyclone Structure 2010 (TCS-10) Data Collection

UNCLASSIFIED 30 CONTACT INFORMATION Director: (808) Technical Advisor (808) JT Ops Officer (JTOPS) (808)

UNCLASSIFIED 31 Questions? THANK YOU!