1. Naval Research Laboratory
ONR MURI
Integration and Visualization of Multi-Source Information Project
Ted Tsui
Naval Research Laboratory
Monterey, CA

2. Navy View
Needs from the operational forecaster’s perspective (METOC Human System Interaction Project)
Goal of the forecaster: to provide accurate, precise and needed METOC forecast information to the Naval tactical users.
METOC Infrastructure (CNMOC Support)

3. Background METOC Infrastructure (CNMOC Support) Production Centers
Products only
Regional Centers, Facilities
Regional forecast
Officer, Senior Chief, Civilians
METOC Office onboard ships
Ship forecast, specific Naval operations support
AG1
Forecast by whatever the information they can get

4. METOC Information Navy System, Web (SIPRNET, Internet)
Observations: for Current Conditions
Satellite Images, Satellite observations, Station Observations, Aircraft reports,
Numerical Model Product: for Analysis and forecast
Large-scale model (in the order of 10 good models)
Mesoscale model (in the order of less than 10 good models)

8. METOC Human System Interaction Project
Model Performance Characteristics
Regional Center has the experience and resources to compare the model outputs. (subjective and based on experience)
Shipboard Forecaster seems to perform the duty alone. Very little help from the technician.
Shipboard forecasters read the synoptic reasoning messages (in text format). No forecast discussion with centers.

9. Temperature Statistics (Europe)
Pressure (mb)
T (C)
T (C)

10. Global Model Annual Mean Forecast Statistics N
Global Model Annual Mean Forecast Statistics N. Hemisphere 500 mb Heights Anomaly Correlation

11. Characteristics of Mesoscale Forecast
Mesoscale Model Capability
Resolving small-scale features
Dependent on large-scale model output to define the general patterns
Inexperienced forecaster tends not to verify the input to the mesoscale model

13. Wind Speed Statistics

15. Verification Sampling Consideration
5 m/s
81 km grid location
> 5 m/s
9 km grid location
Observation
Mountain x y
Barrier Jet

16. COAMPS 12-hr. Forecast valid 1200 UTC 3 Oct. 1999
WIND
81 km
WIND
12 km
m/s

17. Example Forecast Obs Obs Forecast Low Resolution Obs Obs Forecast
High Resolution

18. Number of 20 kt+ Wind Events NOV-DEC 200018 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
FNMOC COAMPS
27 km E_PAC
42 hr FCST
SSM/I winds
COAMPS winds
# OBS
# FCSTS
Observed and simulated climatology can be derived for each event.
COAMPS predicted more 20 kt wind events than observed.
Forecast statistics can be further categorized.
Each valid SSM/I observation can be compared with the forecast
Specific events can be defined, providing more precise information.

19. Phase Error System Movement Forecast Forecast Obs Obs t = t0
Score: miss
t = t0+1
Score: miss

20. COAMPS
Low Clouds
11 AUG 01 00Z
Tau = 2 hrs
11 AUG 01 00Z
Tau = 4 hrs

21. COAMPS 12hr forecast Ceiling and Satellite Images
Valid at 7/2/99 00Z

22. Potential Display Forecaster with Limited Training Intuitive
Simple Message
Easy Access

23. Potential Display

24. Navy View Navy Forecaster Needs
Error characteristics or confidence level associated with daily model predictions
Visualize the uncertainty area including input errors
One Click!!

27. ECMWF Annual Mean Forecast Statistics N
ECMWF Annual Mean Forecast Statistics N. Hemisphere 500 mb Heights Anomaly Correlation

28. FNMOC Vortex Tracking Program
North Atlantic July 2000

29. Meteograms
Weather Forecast
Aviation Forecast

30. 1 1

31. Water vapor-tracked winds using GMS-5 imagery:1 1

32. Potential Display