1. JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2007 YEAR IN REVIEW Lt Col Bob Falvey Director, JTWC 62 nd INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE 3-7 MARCH 2008 CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA Typhoon Man-Yi

2. OVERVIEW Mission Area of Responsibility Satellite Recon 2007 Cyclone Activity Cyclone Tracks Statistics Coming in 2008 Questions

3. MISSION Provide tropical cyclone forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

4. JTWC AOR CPHC New Delhi Reunion Tokyo Australia Fiji NHC 33% 8% 11% 13% 7% 17%

5. SATELLITE RECON FIXES BY AGENCY 113 343 86 94 41 93 42 Total Satellite Fixes = 13,276

6. SATELLITE RECON MI FIXES BY JTWC Total Microwave Fixes = 4,435

7. SATELLITE RECON MI FIXES USING ATCF

8. NW Pacific NW Pacific 2003: 27 2003: 27 2004: 32 2004: 32 2005: 25 2005: 25 2006: 26 2006: 26 2007: 27* 2007: 27* 25 Yr avg: 31 TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY S Indian Ocean & Australia Region 2003: 20 2004: 25 2005: 20 2006: 19 2007: 16 25 Yr avg: 23 South Pacific 2003: 9 2004: 2 2005: 6 2006: 4 2007: 8 25 Yr avg: 6 C Pacific C Pacific 2003: 2 2003: 2 2004: 2 2004: 2 2005: 1 2005: 1 2006: 4 2006: 4 2007: 2 2007: 2 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5 NE Pacific NE Pacific 2003: 16 2003: 16 2004: 16 2004: 16 2005: 16 2005: 16 2006: 21 2006: 21 2007: 15 2007: 15 25 Yr avg: 19 Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2003: 3 2003: 3 2004: 5 2004: 5 2005: 7 2005: 7 2006: 5 2006: 5 2007: 6 2007: 6 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5

9. 2007 CYCLONE TRACKS

10. 2007 WESTPAC TRACKS

11. JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 24-72 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 2003 72 127 182 2004 69 121 162 2005 63 104 169 2006 64 106 151 2007 61 100 147 Goal 50 100 150

12. JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 96-120 Hours) Officially Implemented Experimental 96 Hr 120 Hr 2003 242 305 2004 206 275 2005 212 263 2006 216 309 2007 187 214 Goal 200 250

13. JTWC TRACK ERRORS (CROSS TRACK VS ALONG TRACK) ALONG TRACK (Speed) CROSS TRACK (Direction)

14. 2007 MODEL ERRORS (WESTPAC – Non-Homogeneous)

15. 2007 MESO MODEL ERRORS (WESTPAC - Homogeneous) (289)(269) (236) (202)(170) (34) (Cases)

16. 2007 GLOBAL MODEL ERRORS (WESTPAC - Homogeneous) (115) (111)(93) (86) (75) (55)(31) (15) (Cases)

17. JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC 24-72 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 2003 11 16 19 2004 11 17 21 2005 12 18 24 2006 13 17 20 2007 13 18 20

18. JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC 96-120 Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr 2003 21 19 2004 23 26 2005 25 25 2006 22 24 2007 24 26

19. COMING IN 2008 USAF Civilianization (Update) MARK IVB Continuation Fix Bulletin Changes (Unified DoD/NOAA format, additional MANOPs, on website) T-PARC & TCS-08 Participation All Western North Pacific Warnings to 120 Hours All Northern Indian Ocean Warnings to 72 Hours with 6-hourly Updates Intensity Error Goals

20. INTENSITY ERROR GOALS Standard goals are OK but… Assumption: A large intensity error on a weak/developing cyclone is worse than on a strong cyclone How to determine forecast intensity accuracy relative to cyclone strength? –Normalize by TAU 00 intensity Absolute Intensity Normalized Error Intensity = ------------- Error TAU 00 Intensity Standard Intensity Goals TAU24487296120 Goal5101520

21. NORMALIZED INTENSITY ERROR 10 ---- = 0.29 35 ---- = 1.00 35 50 ---- = 1.43 35 10 ---- = 0.11 90 35 ---- = 0.39 90 50 ---- = 0.56 90 TAU24487296120 Goal0.200.250.300.350.40 Example: 35 knot cyclone with a 10, 35, and 50 knot error compared to a 90 knot cyclone with same errors Absolute Intensity Normalized Error Intensity = ------------- Error TAU 00 Intensity

22. Contact Info Director: robert.falvey@navy.(smil).mil COM: (808) 474-5301 DSN: (315) 474-5301 JT Ops Officer (JTOPS): michael.vancas@navy.(smil).mil COM: (808) 471-4597 DSN: (315) 471-4597

23. QUESTIONS

24. ORIGIN  Established 1959 to protect DoD assets  USPACOM Instruction 3140.1 defines requirements to monitor and warn  Jointly manned with 20 military and civilian positions  Air Force provides reconnaissance and forecasters  Navy provides facility, equipment, and forecasters FM ADMINO CINCPAC TO RPHRB/CINCPACFLT RJHPKM/PACAF INFO RUHPB/CINCUSARPAC RBHPC/MET IN CHG SUPP OFFHON RBEPW/JCS RBMPB/CINCPACREPMARBO RJAPAA/COMUSJAPAN RJMXDA/3RD AIRDIV NAVY GRNC BT ADMINO CINCPAC 182230Z NOTAL REQ YOU ESTABLISH EFFECTIVE 1 MAY 59 A JOINT PACIFIC FLEET PACIFIC AIR FORCES TYPHOON WARNING CENTER INTEGRAL WITH FLEWEACEN GUAM. TITLE NEW ENTITY WILL BE FLEET WEATHER CENTRAL/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER GUAM UNDER THE COMMAND OF CO FLEWEACEN GUAM. NO CHANGE PROPOSED TO FLEWEACEN RESPONSIBILITIES. MISSION ASSIGNED TO PROVIDE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS TO ALL U.S. GOVT AGENCIES WEST OF 180 DEGREES LONG VIA EXISTING MILITARY AND FAA CIRCUITS AND PROCEDURES. DETERMINE TYPHOON RECCO REQUIREMENTS AND PRIORITIES: CONDUCT INVESTIGATE AND POST ANALYSIS PROGRAM INCLUDING PREPARATION OF ANNUAL TYPHOON SUMMARIES. CONDUCT FORECAST AND DETECTION RESEARCH AS PRACTICABLE. LOGISTIC AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT AS MUTUALLY AGREED. JTWC SHALL BE STAFFED INITIALLY BY TWO OFFICERS AND THREE ENLISTED EACH FROM THE EXISTING ALLOWANCES OF FLEWEACEN GUAM AND FIRST WEATHER WING. THE SENIOR AIR FORCE OFFICER ASSIGNED SHALL BE THE DIRECTOR JTWC AND SHOULD BE JUNIOR TO THE CO FLEWEACEN/JTWC GUAM. THE TOKYO WEATHER CENTRAL FUCHU ASSISTED AS NECESSARY BY FLEWEAFAC YOKOSUKA IS DESIGNATED ALTERNATE JTWC IN CASE OF FAILURE OF FLEWEACEN/JTWC GUAM. BT