1. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 1 THIS BRIEF IS UNCLASSIFIED CDR Ashley Evans, USN Commanding Officer, SGOT-SD

2. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 2 Somewhere in the Western Pacific

3. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 3 Global Fleet Operations

4. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 4 PANAMAX 2008

5. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 5 Joint Logistics Over The Shore JLOTS 2008

6. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 6 JLOTS 2008 METOC Enabling Support

7. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 7 EASTPAC Storms

8. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 8 Battlespace On Demand Linking Forecasts to Decisions Decision superiority: Making better decisions faster than the adversary

9. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 9 CNMOC 2009 Goal #3 Prepare for Tomorrow Focus “Battlespace on Demand”  Decision Support − Intuitive, accessible GI&S-based products embedded in Navy/Joint C4I − Navy / National Weather & Ocean Modeling Strategy − Develop selected ‘Decision Layer’ (Tier III) products − Speed to Capability Play a critical role in: − UUV’s − Undersea Warfare Advances − Climate Change / Arctic Ops − Energy Alternatives and Efficiency Expand Joint Wx operations with USAF and NOAA

10. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 10 Gaps in Support StrategicOperationalTactical Level of Effort YearsMonthsWeeksDaysHours COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program OPLAN/ CONPLAN Studies TAS TOS Mission execution briefs Opportunity Trade Space Level of Impact Operational Planning Team Engagement OPLAN/ CONPLAN Development Environmental Reconnaissance Environmental Reconstruction and Analysis Mission Planning Cell Engagement

11. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 11 When - WESTPAC 2004 Typhoon Tracks TROPICAL DEPRESSION TROPICAL STORM TYPHOON DATA FROM 30 JUL-15 OCT 2004 STORMS 12W TO 28W PROVIDED BY JTWC NPMOC PEARL HARBOR CONSIDERED AN AVERAGE TYHPOON SEASON

12. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 12 JCSSG Western Pacific Deployment 2004 METOC Impacts Guam Area (11-16 Oct) TY27W – Tokage TY28W – Nock-Ten 2 days flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops shortened 4 days of Seas > 8ft 1 days with ceilings < 300’ Gulf of Alaska (2-16 Jun) 2 Major Storm Systems 3 days flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops shortened 4 days of Seas > 8ft 2 days with ceilings < 300’ 6 STW missions to PARC no drop due to WX (clouds) 20 days with SST < 50° South China Sea (28Aug - 17 Sep) TS23W 1 day flight ops shortened 3 days Seas > 8ft 1 day with ceilings < 300’ Malacca Strait waterspout Eastern Australia Ocean (20Sep – 8 Oct) 1 day flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops shortened 6 days of Seas > 8ft 2 STW missions to Lancelin range no drop due to WX (clouds) Okinawa Area (7-16 Aug) TY15W Malou TY16W Rananim TY18W Megi 8 days Seas > 8 ft 2 days flight ops cancelled 1 day flight ops shortened Sasebo - Tokyo Port Call (20-25 Aug) STY19W – Chaba TY20W - Aere East China Sea (18-27 Aug) TS21W TY22W Songda 5 days Seas > 8ft Hawaii OPAREA (29 Jun - 26 Jul) 5 STW missions to PTA no drop due to WX (clouds)

13. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 13 Adapted from the movie “Patton” (1970) Environmental Decision Superiority for the 21 st Century Patton and Halsey

14. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 14 Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Advanced Climatology course project. Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution of the climate system, and updates climate statistics accordingly. SST ( o C), East China Sea, Jul-Sep, 1969-2006. Note pronounced interannual variations and long term positive trend. Smart Climatology Traditional Climatology year T ( o C) Smart Climatology – Analysis Methods Smart Climatology – Analysis Methods Long Term Fluctuations and Trends – SST, East China Sea, Jul-Sep

15. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 15 Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses. a b Smart Climatology Existing Navy Climatology Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and operationally useful products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN. Smart Climatology – Data Sets Evaporation Duct Heights

16. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 16 Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and visualization tools to produce more detailed, accurate, and operationally useful products. Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: NPS thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN. Smart Climatology Evaporation duct height (m) for September from: (a) NPS smart EDH climatology and (b) existing Navy climatology after plotting in map form by NPS. NPS smart climatology developed from existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses. a b Traditional Climatology Smart Climatology – Data Sets Evaporation Duct Heights

17. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 17 Apply smart climo methods to develop systems for producing weekly to seasonal predictions of the upper ocean and the atmosphere that drives it. Analyses of climate scale relationships between large scale environment and TCs leads to predictions of TC activity at leads of weeks to months. Verifying observations of TC formation sites during 01-07 Oct 2006 25% 10% 40% 55% 70% Results shown are from NPS hindcast. Experimental forecasts in development at NPS. TC Formation Probabilities for 01-07 Oct 2006 Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program: Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer. ASW Smart Climo, murphree@nps.edu, Jan08 Smart Climatology – Long Lead Prediction Smart Climatology – Long Lead Prediction Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction, Western North Pacific Method very applicable to probabilistic forecasts of TC intensity and track.

18. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 18 Probabilistic Forecast Techniques and Ensemble Modeling

19. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 19 Image Valid: 17/06Z LocationCurrent HURCONClosest Point Of Approach KadenaN/A486NM (18/18Z) Kadena Wed 17/00Z 60G75Kt Typhoon Dolphin Typhoon > 64 Kts Tropical Storm 34 – 63 Kts Tropical Depression < 34 Kts Remnant Low < 25 Kts 6 6 o 6 6 L Typhoon Categories Typhoon: 64 – 129 Kts Super Typhoon: >130 Kts Rain Total* 4 – 8 inches Storm Surge* N/A Wave Heights* 20 – 24 feet *Near Center of Storm Thu 18/06Z 40G50Kt Thu 18/06Z 40G50Kt Wed 17/18Z 55G70Kt Fri 19/06Z 20G30Kt

20. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 20 Key Fleet Capabilities for 21st Century Support Data, Data, Data –Globally connected with links to other services, multinational, federal, and state agencies Smart Climatology and hybrid LRF – Without a robust data feed - marginal results Global Model (NOGAPS/GFS) Ensemble Feed as Initial Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Models and meso-scale models –Develop first order sensitivity guidance for military forecaster use with Ensembles Google Presentation Feed for the Millennium Generation –Standardized –Built to the sailor’s cognitive environment

21. Strike Group Oceanography Team UNCLASSIFIED METOC preparation of the battle space, operational awareness & tactical advantage 21 Questions