1. 2009 TCC presentation JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2008 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Bob Falvey Director, JTWC Typhoon Sinlaku

2. 2009 TCC presentation MISSION Provide tropical cyclone analysis, forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

3. 2009 TCC presentation JTWC AOR CPHC New Delhi Reunion Tokyo Australia Fiji NHC 33% 8% 11% 13% 7% 17%

4. 2009 TCC presentation 4 TC ACTIVITY NW Pacific NW Pacific 2004: 32 2004: 32 2005: 25 2005: 25 2006: 26 2006: 26 2007: 27 2007: 27 2008: 27 2008: 27 25 Yr avg: 31 S Indian Ocean & Australia Region 2004: 25 2005: 20 2006: 19 2007: 16 2008: 21 25 Yr avg: 23 South Pacific 2004: 2 2005: 6 2006: 4 2007: 8 2008: 8 25 Yr avg: 6 C Pacific C Pacific 2004: 2 2004: 2 2005: 1 2005: 1 2006: 4 2006: 4 2007: 2 2007: 2 2008: 1 2008: 1 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5 NE Pacific NE Pacific 2004: 16 2004: 16 2005: 16 2005: 16 2006: 21 2006: 21 2007: 15 2007: 15 2008: 18 2008: 18 25 Yr avg: 19 Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2004: 5 2004: 5 2005: 7 2005: 7 2006: 5 2006: 5 2007: 6 2007: 6 2008: 7 2008: 7 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5

5. 2009 TCC presentation 2008 Satellite Fixes By Agency 73% 6% 16% 96 266 69 51 29 126 45 5 Total Satellite Fixes = 12,581 9199 744 1951 5%

6. 2009 TCC presentation 2008 Microwave Fixes By Platform (PGTW) Total Microwave Fixes = 5,111  Over half of PGTW fixes are now microwave 364 453 284 1716 869 644 781 34% 17% 13% 7% 9% 15% 5%

7. 2009 TCC presentation 2008 NORTH IO TRACKS

8. 2009 TCC presentation 2008 S-HEMI TRACKS

9. 2009 TCC presentation 2008 WESTPAC TRACKS 14 Tropical Storms 11 Typhoons 2 Super Typhoons

10. 2009 TCC presentation JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 24-72 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 2004 69 121 162 2005 63 104 169 2006 64 106 151 2007 61 100 147 2008 66120 198 Goal 50 100 150

11. 2009 TCC presentation 2008 WPAC ERRORS STORM BY STORM

12. 2009 TCC presentation JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTPAC - 96-120 Hours) 96 Hr 120 Hr 2004 206 275 2005 212 263 2006 216 309 2007 187 214 2008 301447 Goal 200 250

13. 2009 TCC presentation 2008 WPAC ERRORS STORM BY STORM

14. 2009 TCC presentation 2007 MODEL ERRORS (WESTPAC – Homogeneous)

15. 2009 TCC presentation 2008 MODEL ERRORS (WESTPAC – Homogeneous)

16. 2009 TCC presentation 2007- 2008 ERROR DELTA (WESTPAC – Homogeneous)

17. 2009 TCC presentation JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (WESTPAC 24 - 120 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr 2004 11 17 21 23 26 2005 12 18 24 25 25 2006 13 17 20 22 24 2007 13 18 20 24 26 2008 12 19 21 22 28

18. 2009 TCC presentation ITEMS OF INTEREST USAF Civilianization (Complete) MARK IVB DRO Continuation/Expansion Fix Bulletin Changes (Unified DoD/NOAA format, MI fixes included) T-PARC / TCS-08 – Data used in forecasts (Sinlaku) ITOP – Impact of Typhoons on the Pacific JMA GSM out to 132 Hrs / Forecasts to 120 Hrs ECMWF Fields JTWC Roadshow – Sep 09

19. 2009 TCC presentation Contact Info Director: robert.falvey@navy.(smil).mil COM: (808) 474-5301 DSN: (315) 474-5301 JT Ops Officer (JTOPS): michael.vancas@navy.(smil).mil COM: (808) 471-4597 DSN: (315) 471-4597

20. 2009 TCC presentation Typhoon FengShen (7W) MODEL ERRORS 10% of the JTWC 120 hour track error due to 07W

21. 2009 TCC presentation SATELLITE RECON FIXES BY JTWC (Total: 9,199)

22. 2009 TCC presentation Mean 1000mb WINDS Jun-Nov 1950-2008 Well Defined Monsoon Trough

23. 2009 TCC presentation 2008 1000mb WINDS Jun-Nov08 Lack of Westerlies N-S Monsoon Trough

24. 2009 TCC presentation 2008 JTWC TRACK ERRORS ALL BASINS

25. 2009 TCC presentation MODEL ERRORS Typhoon FengShen (7W)

26. 2009 TCC presentation Typhoon FengShen (7W) MODEL ERRORS