HOW IES-BRASIL CAN INFORM THE NEW STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT IN BRAZIL

Sectorial GHG Emissions in Brazil–

CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS Even in a scenario of high economic growth it is possible to reduce emissions considerably by Here we witness a reduction in the emissions/GDP. The ratio between emissions and GDP (measured in tCO2eq/million US$ of 2005), which was halved from 2 to 1 tCO2eq per US$ million between 2005 and 2010, would be 0.66 in the GPS, 0.5 in AM1, and 0.4 in AM2, in 2030 RELATION BETWEEN GDP, GHG EMISSIONS AND POPULTAION (2005=100)

The Brazilian DDPP scenario Emission drivers up to 2050

Comparação das Emissões até 2030 nos Cenários IES-Brasil com Cenário para 2050 do DDPP (2°C) 2º C

PREMISES 2030 ACROSS ALL SCENARIOS GOVERNMENTAL PLAN SCENARIO WORLD POPULATION: 8.3 BILLION BRAZILIAN POPULATION: 223 MILLION WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH: 3.2% p.a. EXCHANGE RATE: 2.2 BRL/US$ (2005 constant) OIL PRICE: US$85/BARREL (US$ 2012 constant) GROWTH OF GDP: 3.9% GROWTH OF GDP PER CAPITA: 3.6% INVESTMENT/GDP: 21% TRADE SURPLUS ~ 0

SECTORIAL EMISSIONS IN 2030 ACROSS SCENARIOS (Mt CO 2 e) 7 1,666 1,303 1,308 1,023 1,031 Energy generated Transport Energy demand: Household, services, agriculture & livestock Industry Waste

GHG AVOIDED EMISSIONS, (MtCO 2 e) Mitigation Actions / Sectors MA1 MA1+T MA2 MA2+T AFOLU Agiculture + Cattle Raising Planted Forests Charcoal from afforestation schemes Atlantic Forest Restoration 941,6 ENERGY EFFICIENCY Buildings Oil Refineries, Steel and cement Industries Urban Transport Optimization 42.2 Light vehicles Heavy vehicles Mitigation Actions / Sectors MA1 MA1+T MA2 MA2+T TRANSPORT MODAL SHIFTS Urban Transport on wheels (BRTs, Bikes, electric vehicles) Rail Urban Transport (Subways, Trams) Freight Transport by Railways and Waterways RENEWABLES Ethanol (Transport) Biodiesel (Transport) Power generation (Wind, Biomass, Hydro, Solar) WASTE TOTAL

PATHWAYS TOWARDS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY LULUCF EMISSIONS Mitigation measures to make LULUCF a net sink of GHG emissions in the long-term (net negative emissions): Reducing further deforestation in the Amazon and other regions. Intense reforestation in protected areas across the country. Further expansion of planted commercial forests, (especially Eucaliptus), for use in the steel (charcoal) and pulp & paper industries.

PATHWAYS TOWARDS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS Mitigation measures: Recovery of degraded pastures Crop-livestock integration Agroforestry systems Zero tillage systems Biological nitrogen fixation, avoiding fertilizers No expansion of the agricultural area necessary

PATHWAYS TOWARDS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY WASTE EMISSIONS Mitigation measures: Solid waste – 100% methane capture in large and médium cities (>100 thousand inhabitants), and increase in the capture by small cities Urban sewage – progressively increase the capture of methane from wastewater treatment units with flares

PATHWAYS TOWARDS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND POWER GENERATION Mitigation measures: Full utilization of hydropower potential, subject to environmental constraints No expansion of fossil fuels-based power generation Intensive use of sugarcane byproducts for power generation Expansion of wind power (onshore and offshore) Enhanced energy efficiency measures, far beyond current government efforts

PATHWAYS TOWARDS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY INDUSTRY SUBSECTOR Mitigation measures: Energy efficiency (CFL and LEDs, heat pumps, etc.) Specific GHG emissions-cutting technologies for cement, steel, aluminum, chemical and other industrial processes

PATHWAYS TOWARDS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY ENERGY USE IN TRANSPORT Mitigation measures: Shift towards more intensive use of railways and waterways High growth of hydrous ethanol production Fixed proportion of 25% of anhydrous ethanol added to gasoline Biodiesel proportion in diesel oil growing from 5% in 2020 to 6% in 2025 and 7% in 2030 Bio-kerozene blending in fossil jet fuel

PATHWAYS TOWARDS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY Challenges and Enabling Conditions Worldwide adoption of carbon valuation schemes External financial flow to meet upfront investment costs Half of oil production directed to exports Cut of fossil fuels subsidies Increased biomass sustainable production Hydropower expansion requires new technologies to minimize environmental impacts in the Amazon Storage technologies needed to complement renewables

PATHWAYS TOWARDS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY Alternative Pathways and/or Additional Measures Major shift to electrical vehicles Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for offshore oil Breakthrough and higher penetration of second and third generation biofuels Massive deployment of solar energy technologies Nuclear energy from new reactors

ROADMAP FOR IES-BRASIL AFTER COP21 TWO PARALLEL TRACKS Help different stakeholders (Ministry of Environment; Industry Climate Forum; Coalition for Climate, Forest, Agriculture) to implement the INDC; help to update Sectorial Mitigation Plans, with NAMAs and MRV; focus on groundbreaking areas (e.g. design of carbon pricing mechanisms) and/or those with weaker institutional building (e.g. National Climate Change Fund, mechanisms for funding afforestation schemes, Methane capture from landfills, etc.) Develop a new round of emission scenarios for 2050, including additional stakeholders (e.g. partnering with BNDES, EPE, DDPP, SDGs modelling), and updating assumptions and adding work on the perspectives of new technologies