WP5.4 – Transnational transfer of experiences Overview of methodology for population projections Jana Suklan – Piran

Objective: demographic trends: analysis and harmonization of the knowledge base provide key aspects of demographic change in population structure age/sex/citizenship

Outputs population projections methodologies policy scenarios methodologies taking into account migration movements

Population projection methods overview Source: Data courtesy of US Census Bureau International Programs.

(Wang & Vom Hofe, 2007, 56)

Cohort-component method accounts for the components of population change uses sex-age-specific population cohorts Subdividing cohorts further (level of detail) (Wang & Vom Hofe, 2007, 56) Method origins: Carnan, 1985; Bowley, 1924; Whelpton, 1928

Components of population change are: population (P) births (B) deaths (D) in-migrants; IM out-migrants; OM Demographic balancing equation: Source: population grows population declines

Unique definitions of demographic terms were provided by MMWD partner.

Natural population increase or decrease – fertility fertility rates vary geographically, culturally, and over time variations may result of a combination of complex economic, social, and other factors Total Fertility Rate (TFR): refers to average number of births per woman. (Wang & Vom Hofe, 2007, 68)

Natural population increase or decrease – mortality people dying from one time period to the next expressed in the form of mortality or survival rates Life Tables Survival Rates by age and sex - these tables report probabilities of dying between ages x and x+1 or number of people surviving to age x (Wang & Vom Hofe, 2007, 68)

Migration People move within the same county: internal migration People move to a different county: international migration. positive net migration rates - people move into the region less attractive regions show negative net migration rates (Wang & Vom Hofe, 2007, 77)

Cohort-component method Why is the population changing? Are the reasons for the expected changes mainly driven by births, deaths, and/or in- and out migration? How is the population changing? Is the population aging? Is the racial composition of the population changing? (Wang & Vom Hofe, 2007, 127) Method origins: Carnan, 1985; Bowley, 1924; Whelpton, 1928

Cohort-component method (Wang & Vom Hofe, 2007, 115) 1 Mortality 2 Net Migration 3 Fertility

The Fertility Component (Wang & Vom Hofe, 2007, 120) STEP 1 project the number of births per female age cohort; STEP 2 aggregate all births and allocate this aggregated total between male and female births; STEP 3 apply the survival rates to the cumulated of all live births

Salzburg University of Applied Sciences (SUAS): Study visit material Bringing All Components Together

Projections: BASIC divide the population into age and sex cohorts (subdivision: total/foreign population) EXTENDED divide the population into age and sex cohorts (subdivision: households, education attainment)

Data requirement: Age/sex structure of the initial population separetedly for total and foreign population; A table of mortality A structure of fertility by age A structure of migration by sex and age

Projection assumptions: Fertility: average of the last 10 years Mortality: linear extrapolation of life expectancy of the last 10 years MMWD, Methodological references

Scenarios for BASIC PROJECTION: 1)„Closed population scenario“ zero (net) migration 2)Constant migration (average of the last 10 years) 3)Average migration trends for the period (economic crisis) MMWD, Methodological references

EXTENDED PROJECTION: education attainment/households 1)STATIC APPROACH: static rates are applied to the projected population without taking into account the internal dynamics 2)DYNAMIC APPROACH: capable of controlling a priori information and assumptions influencing the dynamics MMWD, Methodological references

Projection of population by educational attainment applying tables of proportions (static method) or cumulative proportions and transition probabilities (dynamic method) obtained by level of educational attainment to the main projections of population age/sex/citizenship. MMWD, Methodological notes

Data requirements to compute transition probabilities: Variables from Labour Force Survey (at least two surveys): 1) Highest level of education attained (ISCED classification) 2) Sex 3) Age 4) Citizenship MMWD, Methodological references

Procedure to compute transition probabilities: 1)choose the number of categories Level 0-2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5-6 MMWD, Methodological references

2) decide the size of age classes (5-year age classes) years years years years. MMWD, Methodological references

3) Compute frequency tables of sample population by citizenship, sex, age and level of education 4) Obtain percentage distribution tables of population by level of education need to be computed for each age class 5) Obtain percentage retro-cumulative distribution tables by cross-section. 6) Compute transition probabilities. MMWD, Methodological references

Projections of family structure „Headship rate method“ Household type by household size Household type merged by age of reference person MMWD, Methodological notes

Family typology: --One-person households --Multi-person households Households without nucleus Couple without children Couples with children Mothers with children Fathers with children Households with two-or-more nucleus MMWD, Methodological notes

Data requirements - Labour Force Survey: 1) number of heads of household 2) number of individuals resident population in household From here headship specific rate is determined. Headship rates will be computed by type of family and the family distribution by size and typology. MMWD, Methodological notes

Literature: MMWD, Methodological references for population projections, October MMWD, Methodological note for demographic projection in Emilila-Romagna. MMWD, Practical Tool Projections of the population by level of education in Emilila-Romagna, November Goujon, A., Lutz, W., & Sanderson, W. (2004). Report on projections by level of education (Future human capital: population projections by level of education). The end of world population growth in the 21st century. New challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development, Wang, X., & Vom Hofe, R. A. (2007). Research methods in urban and regional planning: Springer.