Social disparities in private renting amongst young families in England and Wales, Rory Coulter Housing, Wealth and Welfare Conference, Amsterdam, 25/05/16

Background Rapid growth of private renting and continuing decline of homeownership amongst young Britons – 58% to 68% of 16-24s between 2008/9 and 2013/14 – 31% to 45% of 25-34s (Rugg and Quilgars, 2015) Millennials increasingly labelled as ‘Generation Rent’ Policy responses concentrate on assisting homeownership transitions

Background Much of the Generation Rent debate focuses on cohort and generational inequality

Background However 2 further concerns emerging: 1.Negative impacts of private renting on families – Costs, dwelling quality, tenure security, residential stability... 2.Social stratification within Generation Rent – Disproportionately less advantaged young people raising families in the PRS – Ties back to older literature on stratification of housing

Question and approach To what extent has the growth of private renting amongst young families been more pronounced for those with a less advantaged class position? Focus on 25-34s and subdivide families by type (lone parent v couple), labour force participation (dual v single earner couples) and occupational class National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification (NS-SEC), contrasting higher managerial, administrative and professional jobs (NS-SEC 1-2) with routine & manual work (NS-SEC 5-7)

Data ONS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales Compare 2001 with 2011 Select sample members aged who headed a ‘family’ – census indicator coded using intra-household relationships – in this study=lone parent or couple with child(ren) N=59690 with in 2001 and in 2011 Dependent variable codes tenure and living arrangements

Housing position in 2011 by family type Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis

% point change in housing position, Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis

Multinomial model Descriptive results do not take into account other compositional factors associated with family type Model housing position (reference category=private tenancy) with controls to see if bivariate patterns persist Controls: age, gender, ethnicity, health status, highest qualifications, region, inter-censal migration, parental labour force position, parental homeownership

Summary of main results (relative risk ratios) VariableOwnershipSocial tenancyParental home 2011 dummy (ref=2001) Family type (ref= dual NS-SEC 1-2) Lone parent, NS-SEC Lone parent, NS-SEC Dual-earner, NS-SEC * Single-earner, NS-SEC ** Single earner, NS-SEC Interaction terms Lone parent, NS-SEC 1-2 x 2011 *** Lone parent, NS-SEC 5-7 x 2011 **1.713 Dual-earner, NS-SEC 5-7 x ** Single-earner, NS-SEC 1-2 x 2011 *1.493* Single earner, NS-SEC 5-7 x ** Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis. *=p>0.05. Base outcome=private tenancy.

Marginal effects of 2011 dummy on the probability of private tenancy Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis. All covariates held at observed values.

Predicted probabilities in 2001 and 2011 Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis. Covariates set to mean and modal values.

Conclusions and extensions Increased private renting most rapid for less advantaged – Offsets trends in homeownership Likely due to constraints and may have ramifications for a range of outcomes (eg. wealth, well-being, housing conditions) Extensions – Panel analysis of transitions (timing, bidirectional processes) – Multilevel analysis of contextual factors

Acknowledgements This research is supported by an Economic and Social Research Council Future Research Leaders award [ES/L /1]. Additional financial support has been provided by the Isaac Newton Trust. The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme under project ES/K000365/1. I bear sole responsibility for all analyses and interpretations of the data. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.